New Report: How to Avoid a Nuclear War With China

According to a recent report by the RAND Corporation, the Air Force’s capacity for executing long-distance strikes could be crucial in protecting Taiwan from a potential Chinese invasion. However, this capability needs to be handled with caution to prevent escalating tensions into a nuclear confrontation.

The report, titled “Denial Without Disaster—Keeping a U.S.-China Conflict over Taiwan Under the Nuclear Threshold” and prepared for the Air Force, suggests that wisely using long-range strike capabilities, strengthening them to withstand nuclear threats, and safeguarding them from conventional attacks can help minimize the chances of escalating conflicts. This report was made public on November 15.

According to RAND researchers, up until the 2020s, China's nuclear capabilities were quite limited, resulting in a low risk of escalation. However, they noted that everything shifted after that period. China initiated a significant expansion of its nuclear arsenal, bolstered its survivability with the DF-41 mobile intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), and maintained almost constant patrols with nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs). Additionally, the country enhanced its capability to bypass U.S. missile defenses by developing a nuclear-capable fractional orbital bombardment system (FOBS).

The authors emphasize that a complete understanding of China's reliable second-strike ability necessitates confidential analysis. They contend that the recent improvements, both in quality and quantity, of China's nuclear arsenal indicate that the United States should approach Beijing as though it possesses a secure second-strike capability—particularly by the year 2030.

At the same time, the U.S. is working on a range of long-range attack weapons. This includes hypersonic missiles, traditional ground-to-ground missiles, and a new stealth bomber called the B-21 Raider. The B-21 will be equipped with various types of munitions, including stand-off weapons.

Strategists have used long-distance weaponry in military simulations to counter a potential Chinese naval assault on Taiwan. However, these weapons come with a hefty price tag, and RAND points out that the strategy will only succeed if the Air Force secures enough of them.

RAND believes that the likelihood of escalating into a nuclear confrontation increases significantly if long-range strike weapons are employed against targets within China. U.S. military strategists must choose their targets with great caution and conceal their long-range strike capabilities to prevent them from becoming a tempting target for a limited nuclear response from China.

The RAND study suggests creating a new expert center for escalation management within Air Force Global Strike Command. This center would provide training for both junior and senior staff and assist in assessing the risks of escalation during peacetime, as well as when selecting targets, designing training drills, and obtaining weapons.

The report suggests that the United States will probably have to balance military effectiveness, the safety of its forces, and the ability to control a situation from escalating. This may mean that the U.S. might need to engage in warfare at a slower pace, attack less optimal targets, and conduct operations farther from the main conflict area than it would prefer in order to keep escalation under control.

The research is timely as the Biden administration looks for options to avoid expanding the U.S. nuclear stockpile. The situation has become more complex due to China's swift growth in nuclear capabilities and North Korea's ongoing threats.

On November 14, the Pentagon presented a report to Congress outlining the U.S. strategy for using nuclear weapons. This document emphasizes the need to deter China, Russia, and North Korea at the same time, partly by utilizing "non-nuclear capabilities to enhance the mission of nuclear deterrence."

China is approximately 7,000 miles away from the U.S. and around 1,800 miles from Andersen Air Force Base in Guam. While these distances exceed the operational range of fighter jets, U.S. bombers have the capability to reach targets from these locations. Aircraft like the B-52, B-2, and the upcoming B-21 are built for delivering both nuclear and conventional munitions over long distances. Although a military strike on mainland China could lead to heightened tensions, some level of risk is unavoidable if the U.S. intends to support Taiwan seriously. Mark Gunzinger, a former bomber pilot, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, and now a senior analyst at the AFA’s Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, emphasizes that the U.S. needs to communicate this clearly to Beijing.

Gunzinger noted that some people appear to agree that U.S. airstrikes on military sites in China, including the bases for the People's Liberation Army's bombers and fighters, as well as their supply lines for missile forces, would lead to significant escalation. However, these same individuals also seem to accept that the PLA will target our bases and other locations on the territory of our allies, and even in Guam, which belongs to the U.S. We need to consider how to prevent such attacks, possibly by making it clear that strikes on our military bases in Japan and Guam could lead to retaliatory strikes on the mainland.

Gunzinger emphasized the importance of restricting our enemies' "operational safe zones." He stated, "If we don't include strikes on the mainland in our military strategies, we essentially allow the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to treat mainland China as a secure base of operations."