Drones, threats and explosions: Why Korean tensions are rising

Tourists use binoculars to observe the North Korean side of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) that separates the two Koreas.

North Korea has claimed that South Korea sent drones into its capital, increasing the already heightened tensions that have been building for several months.

The drones reportedly dropped propaganda flyers over Pyongyang, which North Korea labeled as a provocative act that might escalate into "armed conflict and possibly war."

Following the accusations directed at the South on Friday, Pyongyang announced it had instructed its border forces to be ready to open fire. In response, South Korea stated it was prepared to take action and cautioned that if its citizens' safety were compromised, it would herald the "end of the North Korean regime."

On Tuesday, North Korea followed through on a previous warning by demolishing parts of two roads linking it to South Korea. The following day, they announced that 1.4 million young people in North Korea had expressed interest in joining or rejoining the military.

These recent incidents are part of an ongoing series of interactions between North and South Korea, during which tensions have escalated to levels not seen in years. This increase in hostility follows North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's announcement in January that he considers the South to be the top adversary of his government.

On October 11, North Korea's foreign ministry claimed that South Korea had been sending drones to Pyongyang at night for a period of two weeks. They stated that the leaflets released by these drones included "provocative falsehoods and nonsense."

Kim's powerful sister, Kim Yo Jong, cautioned Seoul about "terrible repercussions" if the supposed drone activity were to occur again. She went on to assert that there was "solid proof" showing that "military thugs" from the South were responsible for the claimed provocations.

North Korea has shared unclear photos that it claims depict drones in the air, along with images that supposedly display the leaflets. However, there is no method to confirm these assertions on our own.

Although South Korea initially rejected the claim that it sent drones into North Korea, its Joint Chiefs of Staff later stated they couldn't confirm or deny Pyongyang's accusations.

There have been rumors in the community suggesting that the drones were operated by activists. These individuals have previously used balloons to send similar items to the North.

Park Sang-hak, the head of the Free North Korea Movement Coalition, rejected North Korea's allegations regarding the drone intrusion, asserting, "We did not send drones into North Korea."

On Monday, Kim had a meeting with the army commander, military leaders, the ministers in charge of state security and defense, as well as senior officials, according to the North's state news outlet KCNA.

There, Kim established the course for prompt military actions and assigned officials the responsibilities related to the functioning of the war deterrent and the implementation of self-defense rights.

Lee Sung-joon, a spokesperson for South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff, indicated that North Korea might carry out "minor provocations," which could include small explosions along the roads linking the two Koreas.

Next, there were blasts on the iconic Gyeongui and Donghae routes.

Check out the moment when North Korea demolishes the roads that link them to South Korea.

Although both routes have been closed for quite some time, their destruction signals that Kim isn't interested in talks with the South, analysts say.

After the blasts, the South Korean military announced that it had launched artillery on its side of the border to demonstrate strength and had increased its monitoring of North Korea.

Several hours later, the Gyeonggi Province government, which encircles Seoul, identified 11 areas along the inter-Korean border as "hazard zones" in an effort to prevent individuals from sending propaganda leaflets against North Korea across the border.

In a recent media briefing, Kim Sung-joong, the vice governor of Gyeonggi Province, stated that distributing leaflets directed at North Korea is a highly risky action that might lead to military confrontation.

Kim noted that distributing these leaflets could pose a risk to the "lives and safety of our citizens" due to the "fast decline in relations between North and South Korea."

What Is This Showing?

Experts believe that the recent drone event indicates North Korea is reinforcing its domestic backing by creating the impression that external threats to the nation are on the rise.

Professor Kang Dong-wan, a political science and diplomacy instructor at Dong-a University in Busan, explained that referring to the South as "distinct states" and avoiding terms like "fellow countrymen" and "unity" is all part of this approach.

Professor Kang stated that the North Korean government depends on instilling fear and requires a perceived external adversary. "When tensions increase, North Korea highlights outside dangers to enhance allegiance to the regime," he explained.

Experts suggest that the back-and-forth actions between the two Koreas illustrate that they are caught in a "game of chicken," where neither side is willing to back down first.

"At this moment, neither party is prepared to compromise," stated Professor Kim Dong-yup from the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul.

Due to the lack of trust between the parties, Professor Kim emphasized that Seoul must carefully think about how to handle the situation.

Are The Koreas On The Brink Of War?

As of now, analysts believe that's not the case.

"I don't think the situation will escalate into a war. North Korea is using military conflicts to bolster unity within the country," said Professor Kang.

"I doubt that North Korea has the capability to start a large-scale war. The government understands the serious repercussions that such a conflict would lead to," stated Professor Kim.

According to Professor Nam Sung-wook, an expert in North Korean studies at Korea University in Seoul, the latest controversy concerning supposed drone activities will probably continue to be just a "war of words."

According to Professor Nam, both Seoul and Pyongyang understand that they cannot afford the consequences of an all-out war, which is why "the chances of nuclear weapons being used are minimal."

Understanding The Bigger Picture

The two Koreas remain technically in a state of war because they never established a peace agreement after the Korean War concluded in 1953.

The idea of reuniting with the South had always been a central, though increasingly impractical, aspect of the North's beliefs since the state was established—until Kim decided to give up on the goal of reunification in January.

Kim has strengthened ties with Russia under Vladimir Putin, creating tensions with the United States and its Western allies, who are crucial supporters of South Korea.

North Korea's longstanding relationship with China is also crucial, as China is considered its greatest ally. Following the recent drone event, a representative from China's foreign ministry urged all involved parties on Tuesday to refrain from actions that could heighten tensions on the Korean peninsula.

As the US presidential campaign approaches its final stage, tensions are escalating on the Korean peninsula.