What to know for every Thanksgiving Day NFL game: Picks, key stats and bold predictions

The blog post on NFL Nation, ESPNNov dated Nov 23, 2023 at 09:25 PM, has been rephrased below: On the NFL Nation section of the ESPN website, there was a blog update on November 23, 2023, at 9:25 PM.

The 2023 NFL season's Week 12 schedule kicks off with some amazing Thanksgiving Day matches. Don't worry - we've got all the important details covered for you. Our dedicated team of NFL Nation reporters share their insights on the key factors for each game and take a daring guess on the outcome of every matchup.

Furthermore, ESPN Stats & Information presents a significant statistic and a valuable betting insight for every game, while our Football Power Index (FPI) analyzes the game's data to create a projection. The most crucial factor in each match is identified by analytics writer Seth Walder, and fantasy analyst Eric Moody shares useful tips on fantasy football. Finally, Walder and Moody share their predicted scores for all three games, giving you everything you need to be prepared for an action-packed Thursday afternoon of NFL football in one convenient location.

49ers Vs. Seahawks: NFC West Showdown

The game will start at 8:20 p.m. Eastern Time and will be aired on NBC. The point spread for the San Francisco team is minus seven with an over/under of 43.5 points total.

A story to follow: The Seahawks will face a tough challenge against the 49ers, who proved to be better in the last season by winning three games and outscoring them 89-43. Unfortunately, the game has become even more difficult for the Seahawks after the injuries sustained by quarterback Geno Smith and running back Kenneth Walker III during Sunday's game. There's hope that Smith can still play despite his triceps contusion, but Walker's situation is uncertain as he suffered an oblique strain and was forced to sit out of the game after the first series. The Seahawks plan to have rookie Zach Charbonnet step up as the RB1, should Walker be unable to play (with Drew Lock as quarterback, if Smith cannot play). -- Brady Henderson

I have a daring forecast: Nick Bosa, a player in the San Francisco 49ers team, is likely to achieve his third three-sack game. Seattle has been struggling with their offensive line due to players getting hurt, which means they've had to use different players. Even though they're on the path to recovery, Bosa and his fellow defensive players in the team have been performing excellently since Chase Young arrived. Since it's a busy week with some members of the Seahawks' offense facing physical uncertainty, it could be the time when some of Bosa's many pressures throughout the season (27, to be precise) turn into valuable sacks.

Did you know that Brock Purdy, the quarterback for the San Francisco team, has thrown three touchdown passes in his last two games? It's quite impressive! The last player on the 49ers to have achieved this feat was Jeff Garcia in 2001. Additionally, Purdy has remained undefeated and thrown nine touchdown passes with zero interceptions against division opponents in his entire career, comprising playoffs. That's remarkable!

The key player to watch in this matchup is Bobby Wagner of the Seahawks. He is currently ranked fourth in the run stop win rate (which is at 41.5%) amongst linebackers. Also, the 49ers have the highest designed run rate this season.

Harm: San Francisco 49ers versus Seattle Seahawks.

In preparation for fantasy football, it's important to note that the San Francisco 49ers are expected to win by a lot while playing away against the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks have allowed the fifth-most amount of fantasy points per game to running backs, which makes it likely that Christian McCaffrey will have a very successful game. However, it's also possible for tight end George Kittle to have a great performance. Kittle has done very well during his past two games in Seattle, with 13 receptions, 274 receiving yards, and two touchdowns. To see more rankings for this week, check out Week 12 rankings. - Moody

Here's some information you might find useful when betting: The 49ers have done really well against their division opponents this season, covering the spread in all seven of those games and tying in one. However, they haven't done as well in their past five games overall, only covering the spread in one of them. If you're considering placing a bet on the 49ers, you might want to take this into account.

According to the experts, the San Francisco 49ers are expected to win against the Seattle Seahawks. Moody predicts that the 49ers will score 35 points while the Seahawks will only score 17. On the other hand, Walder thinks that the 49ers will only win by a close margin and predict their score to be 26 while the Seahawks score 23. The FPI prediction also gives a high probability of San Francisco winning with a 73.2% chance and predicts that they will win by an average of 8.3 points.

Looking back at Thanksgiving Day: In 2014, the Seahawks and 49ers collided on Thanksgiving Day, and the outcome saw the Seahawks emerging as victors with a score of 19-3. The running back, Marshawn Lynch, managed to complete 20 carries for a total of 104 yards, and the cornerback, Richard Sherman, successfully caught two interceptions. For further details, click here.

Important Topics to Note: The upcoming three games could potentially determine if the 49ers make it to the playoffs. Carroll has confidence that Smith will be able to play on Thursday. Unfortunately, Hufanga has a torn ACL.

Thanksgiving's Early Games

Cowboys Take On Commanders

The game will be aired on CBS at 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time. The Dallas team is favored to win and have an 11-point spread, with a total score prediction of 48.5.

Take note of this upcoming matchup: The Cowboys have been performing well, winning four of their last five games. On the other hand, the Commanders have been struggling, losing four of their last five games. Dallas' quarterback, Dak Prescott, has an impressive record of 9-2 against Washington, throwing 19 touchdowns and only four interceptions. He has also won against the Commanders twice when playing on Thanksgiving in 2016 and 2018, throwing three touchdown passes without any interceptions. Let's not forget that he has also been leading the NFL in QBR since Week 4 with a score of 76.6, which means he's likely to continue being on top of his game. However, it's important to keep in mind that he has also had three wins and three losses during the holiday season. He has thrown nine touchdown passes, but also has had five interceptions throughout his career. -- Written by Todd Archer

Daring forecast: CeeDee Lamb, a receiver from Dallas, will most likely have three gains for more than 20 yards throughout the game, achieving a remarkable 140-yard performance with two touchdowns against Washington. The Commanders' defense has conceded the most pass plays of 20 yards or higher (43) in the NFL, in contrast to the Cowboys' offensive team, who ranks fifth for acquiring 20-plus yards in 41 completions. As it stands, Lamb has won the lead in the NFL with 22 receptions of the same nature. -- John Keim

Important Fact: Sam Howell, the quarterback for the Commanders team, has been tackled the most times this season, a total of 51. This isn't good news for Washington. To add to their troubles, the Cowboys have managed to put pressure on their opponents during 39% of their passing attempts, the highest in the league.

Key Player to Watch: DaRon Bland, cornerback for the Cowboys. With four pick-sixes in his NFL career, Bland has a chance to break the league record. This week's game against the inconsistent Howell and the upcoming matchup against Washington are prime opportunities for him to achieve this feat. - Walder

Harm: Rulers | Cowpokes

If you're into fantasy football, take note: the Commanders' defense is known for allowing the third-highest number of fantasy points each game to wide receivers. Lamb has played against them six times and typically receives seven targets and scores 11.7 fantasy points. This Thanksgiving, it's highly probable that Lamb will surpass those usual stats. Check out the rankings for Week 12 to see more.

Interesting fact: Since the merger took place in 1970, the Cowboys have not lost a single game as double-digit favorites on Thanksgiving, winning all 12 matches. They have also covered the spread in 9 out of those 12 games. Although, it is worth noting that this year's opponents, the Commanders, have performed well as underdogs, boasting a 6-1 record against the spread. In particular, they have been highly successful in away games as underdogs, covering the spread in all 5 matches. To find out more about this, check out our article.

It's difficult to classify Deebo as anything more than a top-tier WR3.

Tristan H. Cockcroft expresses his worry regarding Deebo Samuel's recent performance and the challenge he may face against the Seahawks.

Moody predicts that the Cowboys will win against the Commanders with a score of 34 to 31. On the other hand, Walder predicts that the Cowboys will win with a score of 34 to 20 against the Commanders. According to FPI, the Cowboys have an 85.1% chance of winning and are expected to have an average lead of 13.9 points.

Let's revisit Thanksgiving Day history: During the year 1974, a reserve quarterback named Clint Longley took over for the injured Roger Staubach when the Cowboys were down by 13 to Washington. Longley led Dallas to a win by throwing 11 passes that amounted to 203 yards. He ended the comeback with a 50-yard touchdown pass to Drew Pearson in the final 28 seconds. The Cowboys then secured their triumph with an extra point kick, earning themselves a 24-23 victory. Want to find out more? Click here.

Important articles to read: After losing to the Giants, the Commanders are struggling and facing their most challenging period. On the other hand, the Cowboys are shifting their attention to the Commanders after their victory over the Panthers.

Please take note that Green Bay emerged victorious against Detroit with a score of 29-22. Here's a preview we published earlier this Wednesday in preparation for the game.

Packers Face Lions In Crucial Game

The game will be aired on FOX channel at half past noon Eastern Time. The spread for the game is Detroit favored to win by seven and a half points, with a total over-under score of 46.5.

Exciting Matchup: In Detroit, Thanksgiving and football have always been a perfect pairing since 1934, when the Lions hosted their first Thanksgiving Day game. However, the Lions haven't had outstanding results lately as they haven't won on Thanksgiving since 2016. This year, the Packers will be visiting Detroit to challenge the Lions, as they have won two out of their past three games. However, the Packers have lost to the Lions four times in a row, which is one of their longest losing streaks in franchise history.

Daring forecast: The Lions won't intercept the Packers quarterback, Jordan Love. Although they were successful in intercepting him twice during their previous conference in Week 4, they've only had two interceptions in the last three games. Love hasn't had continuous games without an interception since the first two weeks of the season. Nevertheless, this may differ in the upcoming game against the Lions. Surprisingly, he didn't throw any interceptions on Sunday when he faced the Chargers, which could be deemed his most exceptional performance of the season. It's apparent that he'll maintain his good form and keep it up against the Lions. Detroit currently ranks 17th in the NFL with only eight defensive interceptions. -- Rob Demovsky

Interesting Fact: Jared Goff, the Lions' quarterback, has shown remarkable success while playing against the Packers team. He has won five out of six regular-season games against them. This accomplishment places him in the third position for the highest winning percentage by a starting quarterback at a game against the Packers, going back to the year 1950. Jim McMahon and Bobby Layne are the only two QBs with better records.

Key player to watch: Keisean Nixon, Packers' cornerback assigned to cover the slot area. His task will be to prevent Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta, the main receivers for the Lions, from making big plays. If Nixon can successfully limit their impact, the Packers will have a better chance of disrupting the Lions' passing game.

Injury Report: Packers vs. Lions

For those interested in fantasy football, it's worth noting that Jayden Reed has been the most productive among the Packers' wide receivers, with 463 receiving yards and a 32-yard rushing touchdown in their latest game against the Chargers. Given that running back Aaron Jones is currently dealing with a knee injury, Reed may be able to fill in a similar role as Deebo Samuel does for the 49ers. Additionally, Reed is among the top 20 wide receivers with 3.1 fantasy points per touch, making him an attractive pick for Week 12. Check out the rankings to make your decision.

Interesting fact for bettors: The Lions have been successful in covering the spread (ATS) in 11 out of 12 division games they played in their recent history. Check out further details.

According to Moody's prediction, the Lions will win with a score of 34 to 21 against the Packers. Walder's prediction is slightly lower, with the Lions winning 30 to 20. The FPI prediction shows that the Lions have a 64% chance of winning, with an average point differential of 4.8 points in their favor.

Looking back on Thanksgiving Day: The upcoming game between the Packers and Lions on Thanksgiving Day will mark the first time these NFC North rivals have played each other since 2013. However, this will be the 22nd occasion that the two teams have faced off on Turkey Day. This sets a record for the most meetings between any two franchises on this holiday. So far, the Lions have the upper hand, with 12 wins, 8 losses, and 1 tie in the previous 21 games. Find out more by clicking the link.

Important articles to check out: Love showed his skills in the Packers' victory against the Chargers ... Williams is finally feeling like he belongs in the Detroit team.