Questions from every NFL Week 16 game: Are the Ravens now the favorites to win the AFC North?

NFL Community, ESPN - December 22, 2024, 1:00 AM

The Los Angeles Chargers defeated the Denver Broncos in the opening game of Week 16 on "Thursday Night Football." On Saturday, the Kansas City Chiefs triumphed over the Houston Texans with a score of 27-19. Following that, the Baltimore Ravens secured a playoff berth by dominating their AFC North rivals, the Pittsburgh Steelers, with a 34-17 victory.

Our NFL Nation reporters provided their insights on all the action, addressing unresolved questions from each game and sharing important details about every team. Let's dive in!

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Ravens Dominate Steelers 34-17 In Baltimore

Are the Ravens now the frontrunners for the AFC North title? Not quite. While Baltimore and Pittsburgh are currently tied for first place in the division with identical 10-5 records, the Ravens only have a 45% chance of taking the AFC North title, as per ESPN Analytics. If both teams win their remaining games, the Ravens would drop to second place due to a poorer record in games they played against common opponents compared to the Steelers. Therefore, the Ravens must win their next two games—against Houston and at home versus Cleveland—while hoping the Steelers lose at least once. Pittsburgh's upcoming challenges include home games against the Chiefs and the Bengals. Nonetheless, this victory has provided a significant boost in confidence for the Ravens, especially since they had only won one of their last nine encounters with the Steelers.

In two words, the game can be summed up as: role reversal. This time, it was the Ravens who took advantage of Pittsburgh's errors, in contrast to their earlier encounters. Baltimore managed to create two turnovers—one was a forced fumble on Russell Wilson right at the Baltimore 5-yard line, and the other was a 37-yard interception return for a touchdown by Marlon Humphrey. This marked the Ravens' first defensive touchdown of the season. It was a stark contrast to their previous nine matchups, where they had committed 19 turnovers.

Most unexpected standout: Running back Derrick Henry. He rushed for 162 yards, achieving his first-ever 100-yard game against the Steelers and making up for his 65-yard outing last month in Pittsburgh. Henry had faced a rough patch recently, being limited to fewer than 70 rushing yards in three of his last five games. Now, he joins an exclusive club with his fourth season exceeding 1,500 rushing yards, a feat surpassed only by Barry Sanders, who accomplished this five times. -- Jamison Hensley

Upcoming game: against the Texans (Wednesday at 4:30 p.m. ET)

Is it still possible for the Steelers to claim the AFC North title? Following their loss to the Ravens on Saturday, the Steelers must win all their remaining games to secure their division and earn a home playoff spot. Their final matches this season are against the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals, which won't be an easy challenge. Although there isn’t an easy solution for the struggles of a Steelers squad that's having trouble stopping opponents on defense and generating offense, welcoming back S DeShon Elliott and WR George Pickens could significantly help them finish the season on a high note.

What we discovered about the quarterback on Saturday: Wilson threw two touchdown passes, but he was also responsible for 14 points for the Ravens. He fumbled the ball just 4 yards away from the end zone in the first half, and in the fourth quarter, he threw a pass that was behind tight end MyCole Pruitt, which was intercepted and returned for a touchdown by Humphrey. This interception return, known as a pick-six, boosted the Ravens to a 31-17 lead with 13 minutes remaining, effectively ending any chance of a Steelers comeback. Overall, Wilson completed 22 out of 33 passes for 217 yards, but his turnovers proved to be the most damaging of the season.

Major Gap in the Strategy: What happened with Pat Freiermuth? The Steelers’ tight end entered Saturday’s matchup having scored a touchdown in three consecutive games, but he was absent in the contest against the Ravens. Freiermuth ended up with only three receptions on three attempts, totaling just 16 yards. -- Brooke Pryor

Upcoming match: against the Chiefs (Wednesday at 1 p.m. ET)

Kansas City Tops Houston 27-19

Is Xavier Worthy the top receiver for the Chiefs? Who else could hold that title right now? The Chiefs targeted Worthy 11 times while passing and handed him the ball three times. He achieved 7 receptions for 65 yards and scored 1 touchdown, along with 10 yards on the ground. Other receivers, like Hollywood Brown and DeAndre Hopkins, also made important plays, but Worthy stood out as their primary option.

What we discovered about the quarterback on Saturday is that Patrick Mahomes can still perform well despite his high ankle sprain. While it wasn't his strongest performance, he still played well enough to lead the Chiefs to victory. He notched the team's first touchdown with a 15-yard run and also contributed with a 12-yard run during that same drive.

Unexpected top performer: Brown showed great potential in his first game back after dealing with a sternoclavicular injury during the preseason. While he didn't have a lot of playing time, he managed to make five receptions for a total of 45 yards. He made one key catch on fourth down and another on third down, both of which helped the Chiefs secure new sets of downs. -- Adam Teicher

Upcoming match: against the Steelers (Wednesday at 1 p.m. Eastern Time)

How will the Texans deal with their injury setbacks? The team has lost three key players: right guard Shaq Mason, wide receiver Tank Dell, and safety Jimmie Ward. It seems like these injuries will keep them sidelined for an extended period, especially since Ward and Dell had to be taken off the field in carts. The absence of Dell is particularly significant, as he was an important option for quarterback C.J. Stroud. With wide receiver Stefon Diggs already out for the season due to a knee injury sustained in Week 8, losing Dell now adds to the team's challenges.

What we discovered about the quarterback on Saturday is that Stroud needs to be effective, especially with Dell sidelined. His primary option now is Nico Collins. When defenses focus on Collins, Stroud will have to rely on shorter passes, as he demonstrated against the Chiefs, completing 10 out of 15 passes for 102 yards.

Major Flaw in the Strategy: In four of the last six matches, running back Joe Mixon has been held to fewer than 60 rushing yards. This drop in performance can be attributed to the changes in the offensive line. The Texans have a record of 5-2 when Mixon gains more than 100 rushing yards, but they struggle with a 2-3 record when he falls below 60 yards. -- DJ Bien-Aime

Upcoming match: against the Ravens (Wednesday at 4:30 p.m. ET)

Chargers Triumph Over Broncos 34-27

Can the Chargers' defensive problems be resolved? The Chargers' defense had been one of the strongest in the NFL for a significant part of the season, but they have struggled in recent weeks. This trend continued on Thursday night, as the Broncos scored touchdowns on their first three possessions—marking the first time this season that an opponent has done so against Los Angeles. A major concern for the Chargers has been their performance on third downs. In the first 11 weeks of the season, they allowed only 32.3% of third downs to be converted, ranking second in the league. However, from Weeks 12 to 15, that number jumped to 47.5%, placing them 27th in that category. Fortunately, they made some adjustments against the Broncos, giving up just six points in the second half and limiting Denver to 5-of-13 on third downs, which suggests that their defensive struggles may be improving.

In two words, the game can be summed up as: Opportunistic Chargers. The Chargers capitalized on the Broncos' mistakes, with Denver committing seven penalties totaling 61 yards, compared to the Chargers' two penalties for just eight yards. A crucial fair catch interference call just before halftime allowed kicker Cameron Dicker to execute the first fair catch free kick in 48 years, which shifted the momentum in favor of the Chargers. From that point on, they outscored the Broncos 21-6, securing the victory.

Looking ahead to next week, I anticipate that the Chargers’ defense will achieve their first shutout. In the second half against Denver, the Chargers appeared to ignite their defensive game, and now they’re up against a New England Patriots squad that ranks 31st in the league for points scored per game, averaging just 17. This matchup could present an ideal situation for a defense that has come close to shutouts on two occasions this season, giving them a boost of confidence as they move closer to the playoffs. -- Kris Rhim

Upcoming match: against the Patriots (Saturday, 1 p.m. ET)

How significant was the missed chance from Thursday's defeat? While it might impact the Broncos' mindset more than their actual playoff prospects, losing to the Chargers revealed some lack of composure during crucial moments. After the loss, the Broncos fell from the No. 6 seed to the No. 7 (the last playoff position), but they still maintain a comfortable 2.5-game lead over the Cincinnati Bengals, Indianapolis Colts, and Miami Dolphins for that playoff spot. The bigger worry lies in the manner of the loss—a series of inconvenient penalties and an offense that fizzled out after a strong start. Denver managed to score 21 points in the first 24 minutes, but only added six points in the next 36 minutes. With hopes set on breaking their eight-year playoff drought, the defeat is, as coach Sean Payton put it, "disappointing because there was a lot on the line."

Summarize the game in two simple words: Ignored instructions. Payton has it noted on his call sheet: "Run It!" Even though the Broncos had a strong start rushing the ball—successfully running it seven times out of ten plays to score a touchdown on their first drive—they only attempted 14 runs for the rest of the game. Payton is having trouble establishing a consistent approach to calling plays for the run game, despite emphasizing its importance for the Broncos. Yet, he's not putting his statements into action.

Significant flaw in the strategy: Chargers rookie Ladd McConkey entered the game as the team's top receiver in both catches and yards by a wide margin. However, the Broncos opted not to have Pro Bowl cornerback Pat Surtain II cover him, and as a result, they couldn't effectively limit his impact. McConkey consistently kept the chains moving, finishing with six receptions for 87 yards. "We missed our coverage five times... it's unacceptable to leave one of their best receivers open," Payton commented. -- Jeff Legwold

Upcoming match: against the Bengals (Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET)