NFL DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Jets-49ers Monday Night Football Week 1

The first week of the NFL season wraps up on Monday night with a game between the Jets and the 49ers. Using Stokastic's resources, we'll dive into the roster of players to find the most influential NFL DFS under-the-radar choices for Week 1's Monday Night Football.

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Contrarian NFL DFS Picks: Jets Vs. 49ers Week 1

Jake Moody: Contrarian Captain For NFL DFS MNF

Stokastic’s Captain Optimal Percentage for DraftKings: 3.1% DraftKings DFS Salary: $4,800

Similar to other primetime matchups in Week 1, the Jets and 49ers are both entering the 2024 season with significant hopes. Each team boasts a roster full of skilled players, but Christian McCaffrey consistently steals the spotlight in any Showdown format. This is reflected in his projected ownership, as he's expected to appear in 71% of lineups for both the Captain and Flex roles on DraftKings. Given McCaffrey's strong potential for scoring, pairing him with a few budget-friendly players could be very rewarding, especially when there are additional high-value options available like Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson.

As the NFL has reduced its preseason games from four to three, and many players have sat out entirely, it’s no wonder that Week 1 has featured some rough matchups. If we look at Showdown as a measure, this roughness can be better understood: Kickers have performed well in three games (Steelers-Falcons, Panthers-Saints, Cowboys-Browns), while defensive teams have been standout in two games (Vikings-Giants, Titans-Bears). This doesn’t mean that tonight’s game is bound to be messy, but it’s clear that several teams are starting the season a bit rusty. With both the Jets and 49ers likely boasting some of the strongest defenses in the league, it wouldn’t be surprising to see this game lean towards a lower score.

There are plenty of solid options among the playmakers available in this lineup, but the $4,800 cost of 49ers kicker Jake Moody creates some interesting possibilities for building your roster. Moody is reliable for long field goal kicks, and while San Francisco has a strong offense that can advance the ball, the Jets defense is also capable of preventing touchdowns. Although Moody is expected to be the ideal Captain in just 3.1% of scenarios for this slate, not many players are considering him, with only 1.7% of lineups likely to feature him in that role.

Contrarian Pick For MNF: Greg Zuerlein In NFL DFS

Stokastic's Utility Optimal: DraftKings at 29.2% Ownership Forecast for DraftKings: 19.3%

Fully leaning into the unconventional, Jets kicker Greg Zuerlein stands out as the best contrarian option available. He shares a similar profile to Moody in this scenario. While Moody is slightly more favored for the Captain role, Zuerlein is expected to have significantly lower ownership as a Flex play, especially considering his affordable price of just $4,400.

When it comes to choosing a kicker for a Showdown slate, the opportunity cost arises because each DraftKings lineup is limited to just six players. Since skill position players and quarterbacks typically offer the greatest potential for scoring, many participants are reluctant to fill their lineup spots with kickers and defenses. Given the anticipated flow of the game and the higher salary demands of top players, Zuerlein can help balance your budget without lowering your overall potential. While aiming for high scores is crucial in GPPs, Zuerlein's value lies in the strong players you can include alongside him in your lineup.

Zuerlein is expected to be a great choice as a Utility player about 29.2% of the time in this DraftKings matchup. Nevertheless, only 19.3% of the current lineups are set to include him.

Contrarian NFL DFS Picks For Week 1 MNF

49ers Defense/Special Teams, Jets Defense/Special Teams, Malachi Corley, Ronnie Bell