Betting tips for Saturday NFL: Texans-Chiefs and Steelers-Ravens

In their initial encounter, Russell Wilson and the Steelers emerged victorious against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. Photo by Charles LeClaire/Imagn Images.

December 21, 2024, at 1:30 PM.

In Week 16 of the NFL season, we have two Saturday games to start off the weekend.

C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans are on their way to take on the Kansas City Chiefs in today's opening matchup. Patrick Mahomes is nursing an ankle injury but has been given the go-ahead to participate. Although both teams have already secured their spots in the playoffs, the Chiefs can guarantee home-field advantage and a first-round bye by winning their next two games or by winning one of those games combined with a loss by the Buffalo Bills.

The second game today showcases a fierce rivalry between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens. The Steelers have already guaranteed their place in the playoffs, but a victory on Saturday would also allow them to take the AFC North title. Meanwhile, the Ravens need a win to ensure they earn at least a wild-card position.

There are many chances to make bets on the games, so take a look at the odds, props, insights, trends, and our recommendations below.

The odds mentioned are up to date as of the time this was published, thanks to ESPN BET.

Texans Face Chiefs: Spread Set At -3.5

At the beginning of the week, the betting odds changed due to doubts about Mahomes' availability. Initially, the Texans were favored by a small margin, but as more optimistic updates regarding the Kansas City quarterback emerged, the line began to favor the Chiefs, especially since he has been approved to play.

The Chiefs (13-1, 5-9 ATS) have secured the AFC West title, but they were briefly surpassed as the top team in the conference by the Buffalo Bills earlier this week. However, after the Los Angeles Chargers defeated the Denver Broncos on Thursday night, the Chiefs regained their position at the top. This was the first instance since the odds were released in February that the Chiefs (currently +185) were not favored to win the AFC.

The Texans, boasting a record of 9 wins and 5 losses (with a 6-8 record against the spread), have officially secured their division championship. As the champions of the AFC South, they currently have odds of +1400 to take home the AFC title.

Last week, the Houston Texans secured a victory at home against the Miami Dolphins, while the Kansas City Chiefs triumphed on the road over the Cleveland Browns, despite Patrick Mahomes having to exit the game early due to an ankle injury.

The first match on Saturday kicks off at 1 p.m. Eastern Time and will be broadcast on NBC and Peacock.

Betting Line: Chiefs favored by 3.5 points (initially Texans were favored by 1) Moneyline: Chiefs at -190, Texans at +160 Total Points: Set at 42.5 (opened at 41.5)

In the first half, the Chiefs are favored by 2.5 points at odds of -110, while the Texans are the underdogs by the same margin at -110. For the Texans, the total projected points are set at 19.5, with the odds for going over at -110 and for under at -120. The Chiefs have a predicted total of 22.5 points, with over at -125 and under at -105.

According to ESPN's analytics, the Chiefs have a 61% likelihood of winning the matchup.

C.J. Stroud has a projected passing yard total of 224.5 yards, with odds of -140 for going over that number and +110 for staying under it. When it comes to touchdown passes, Stroud is set at 1.5, with odds of +150 for more than that and -200 for less. On the other hand, Patrick Mahomes is expected to throw for 249.5 yards, with +110 odds for exceeding that total and -140 odds for falling short. His touchdown pass total is also set at 1.5, with +105 odds for going over and -132 odds for under.

Joe Mixon's total rushing yard line is set at 59.5, with odds of -140 for going over and +110 for going under. Isiah Pacheco has a rushing yard line of 49.5, with -145 for the over and +115 for the under. Kareem Hunt's rushing yard line is 29.5, offering +105 for the over and -135 for the under.

Nico Collins has an overall receiving yard line set at 89.5, with odds of -105 for going over and -125 for under. Tank Dell’s receiving yard line is at 39.5, priced at -130 for over and +100 for under. Dalton Schultz is set at 34.5 receiving yards, offering -125 for over and -105 for under. Travis Kelce’s line sits at 49.5 yards, with odds of -120 for over and -110 for under. DeAndre Hopkins also has a receiving yard line of 39.5, with both options at -115. Xavier Worthy shares the same total receiving yard line of 39.5, where the over is -125 and the under is -105. Lastly, Noah Gray’s total is 19.5, with -140 odds for going over and +110 for under.

Patrick Mahomes: Less than 249.5 passing yards (-140)

Mahomes is scheduled to take the field on Saturday, although he won't be at his peak performance. The Chiefs should consider focusing more on their running game, but when Mahomes does make passes, he'll be up against a formidable Texans secondary. Houston ranks as one of the better defenses, allowing the eighth-lowest amount of passing yards each game and limiting opposing quarterbacks to a 57.7% completion rate. It’s also important to mention that in three of his last five outings, Mahomes has fallen short of this passing yard mark.

Nico Collins to have more than 89.5 receiving yards (-105)

The Chiefs' defense has been solid this year, but their secondary has shown some inconsistency. They've allowed big performances from several top receivers, such as Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Drake London, and Jakobi Meyers.

Collins has been sidelined for a bit, but when he plays, he's been outstanding, recording an average of 8.6 targets and 94.3 receiving yards each game. C.J. Stroud clearly relies on Collins, and together they will need to make significant plays to match up against Kansas City.

Kansas City has failed to cover the spread in seven out of its last eight games, although they managed to do so in their most recent match.

The Chiefs have a record of 1-5 against the spread when playing against teams that have a winning record this season.

The Texans have an impressive record of 12 wins and 2 losses against the spread in the first halves of their games this season, making them the top team in the NFL in this category.

Under coach Andy Reid, the Chiefs have a record of 30 wins, 15 losses, and 1 tie against the spread when the point spread is within the range of +3 to -3. Since 2015, their performance has improved to 25 wins, 11 losses, and 1 tie against the spread.

This season, Kansas City has a 1-5 record against the spread when facing teams that have winning records.

The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in their last four home games, marking their longest streak of losses against the spread at home since 2022.

This season, Houston has a record of 10 wins and 4 losses when it comes to games ending under the total points, making it the best in the league.

The Texans can secure a win this week that will push their total season wins over the mark of 9.5.

Steelers Vs. Ravens: Game Preview And Odds

Russell Wilson and the Steelers, who are at the top of the AFC North with a record of 10-4 and have covered the spread 10 times, are traveling to Baltimore to face Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, who have a record of 9-5 and have covered the spread 7 times.

Even though the current rankings show otherwise, the Ravens have odds of +400 to claim the AFC title and +850 to win the Super Bowl. Meanwhile, the Steelers have odds of +1300 to win the AFC and +2500 for the Super Bowl. Nevertheless, the Steelers are still favored to take the division title at -170, while the Ravens sit at +130.

As Week 16 approaches, Pittsburgh is coming off a defeat against the Eagles in Philadelphia. Meanwhile, Baltimore also faced a loss to the Eagles two weeks ago, but they managed to secure a victory against the New York Giants in their most recent game.

A little over a month ago, the Steelers triumphed with a score of 18-16 in their first encounter against these division rivals.

The second match on Saturday is set to kick off at 4:30 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on FOX.

Point Spread: Ravens -6.5 (initially set at Ravens -6.5) Moneyline: Ravens -280, Steelers +230 Total Points: 44.5 (originally 46.5)

First-half betting line: Ravens favored by 3.5 points (-110), Steelers receiving +3.5 points (-110). Steelers projected total points: 18.5 (Over -115/Under -115). Ravens projected total points: 25.5 (Over -120/Under -110).

According to ESPN Analytics, the prediction model suggests that the Ravens have a 66.5% likelihood of winning the matchup.

Russell Wilson's projected passing yards are set at 199.5, with betting odds of -145 for going over and +115 for under. He is also expected to throw 1.5 touchdown passes, with +145 for surpassing that mark and -190 for not reaching it. For Lamar Jackson, the estimated passing yards are 224.5, with odds of -120 for going over and -110 for under. He is also projected to have 1.5 touchdown passes, with the odds being -110 for exceeding that and +120 for staying below.

Derrick Henry's rushing yard line is set at 79.5, with odds of -135 for going over and +105 for going under. For Jackson, the line is 49.5 rushing yards, with -110 odds on the over and -120 on the under. Najee Harris' rushing yard line is 44.5, offering -135 odds on the over and +105 on the under. Lastly, Jaylen Warren's rushing yards are set at 29.5, with -110 odds for the over and -120 for the under.

Total receiving yards for Zay Flowers are set at 59.5, with odds of Over at -130 and Under at +100. Mark Andrews has a receiving yard line of 34.5, with Over at -120 and Under at -110. Pat Freiermuth's total is also 34.5 yards, with Over priced at -130 and Under at +100. Calvin Austin III's line is 39.5 receiving yards, offering Over at +100 and Under at -130. Lastly, Isaiah Likely has a total of 29.5 receiving yards, with Over at +105 and Under at -135.

Lamar Jackson to throw for more than 224.5 passing yards (-120)

Jackson is enjoying the best season of his career when it comes to passing. In Week 11, he threw for just 207 yards in a game against the Steelers on the road. However, this time, playing at home, he's poised for a strong comeback. He has surpassed this yardage total in eight of his last ten games, averaging close to 30 passing attempts per game.

The Steelers' defense is undoubtedly strong, but it has revealed some vulnerabilities. In the last three weeks, both Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts have managed to break through this defense. Anticipate that Jackson will step up and put on an impressive show.

Derrick Henry rushing for fewer than 79.5 yards (+105)

Henry started the season strong, surpassing this benchmark in six out of his first seven games. However, he has struggled recently, falling short in four of his last seven matches.

In Week 11, he could only gain 65 yards when facing off against the Steelers. The Pittsburgh defense is quite formidable, having allowed the fourth-lowest rushing yards this season and just 3.8 yards per carry in away games. This matchup is going to be challenging for Henry.

The last eight matchups between the Steelers and Ravens have all finished with scores below the total.

The Steelers have emerged victorious in their last four encounters, covering the spread in all of those games. Overall, they have triumphed in eight out of their last nine matchups, with a 7-2 record against the spread during that span.

The Steelers have emerged victorious in their last four encounters in Baltimore, with a perfect record against the spread.

The Steelers' impressive run of seven consecutive victories as underdogs came to an end last week, which is tied for the second-longest such streak since the 1970 merger. This season, Pittsburgh has a record of 5-1 both in actual wins and against the spread when playing as underdogs.

Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers have a record of 60 wins, 33 losses, and 3 ties against the spread when they’re the underdogs, with 52 of those games resulting in victories. Tomlin ranks second in both the against-the-spread record as an underdog and the outright win record during the Super Bowl era, only behind Matt LaFleur (with at least 20 games as an underdog). Since 2018, the Steelers have performed well as underdogs, boasting a 35-16-2 record against the spread.

This season, the Ravens have gone over the point total 11 times and only 3 times under, making it the best over record in the NFL. On the other hand, when it comes to first-quarter totals, the Ravens have a 10-3-1 record for going under, which is the highest in the league. Meanwhile, the Steelers have hit the over in 5 of their last 6 games played on the road.

This season, the Steelers have a record of 4-1 against the spread when facing teams that have winning records.

The Steelers have covered the spread in 10 out of their last 13 games following a defeat.

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