3’s a Crowd: Expect Even More NBA Shots from Beyond the Arc

The Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks reached the 2024 NBA Finals as uniquely different teams, united by a common strategy: a strong focus on long-range shooting. Last season, they topped the league in the number of 3-point shots attempted, and now other franchises are eager to follow their lead.

The NBA's 3-point transformation is still going strong. During the 2024 preseason games, teams attempted 44% of their shots from beyond the three-point line, marking the highest percentage seen in exhibition play. To put this in perspective, the average for the entire league has never exceeded 40% in any regular season game.

Following a steady rise over many years, the number of 3-point shots in the NBA surged starting in the 2012-13 season, when 24.4% of all shots taken were from beyond the arc. This trend continued to climb, reaching a high of 38.4% by the 2019-20 season. In the last four seasons, that growth has leveled off, but the upcoming 2024-25 season might bring a change.

With the support of their analytically focused head coach Joe Mazzulla, the reigning champion Celtics are aiming to increase their number of three-point attempts from last season. During the preseason, more than half of their shots—55.4%—were from beyond the arc. This figure surpasses their league-best shooting rate of 47.1% from last year and could even break the all-time record held by James Harden's Houston Rockets in 2019.

What does it matter? It’s only the preseason, isn’t it? However, research conducted by Owen Phillips shows that the rate of 3-point attempts has the second highest correlation between the preseason and the regular season among 25 different team statistics he has been monitoring since 2019.

When teams choose to increase their three-point shooting, they typically focus on this during their training before the season begins. For example, last year, the teams that ended up in the top five for three-point attempts during the regular season were also among the top 10 in that category during preseason practices. The Celtics, in particular, led in three-point attempts in both preseason and the regular season.

"I really enjoy watching 3-point shots," Mazzulla stated during a press conference in his inaugural season as coach in 2022. "I have a fondness for numbers."

The Golden State Warriors, champions in 2022 and second in the league for three-point attempts during the regular season, are aiming to enhance their shooting from beyond the arc. In the preseason, they took almost half of their shots—49%—from three-point range, an increase from last year's 42.5%, which placed them sixth in the rankings.

During an exhibition game in October, the Warriors made 28 out of 52 three-point attempts, which delighted head coach Steve Kerr. He expressed his thoughts, stating that not shooting three-pointers simply doesn't make sense for their strategy. "For our team, it’s crucial because we don’t often get to the free-throw line. Without a high volume of three-point shots, winning games would be quite challenging for us," Kerr remarked, as reported by The Athletic.

Following the departure of mid-range expert DeMar DeRozan during the offseason, the Chicago Bulls seem ready to alter their shooting strategy more than any other team. In the preseason, they took 47.2% of their shots from beyond the arc, a significant increase from the 35.8% they recorded in the regular season of 2024.

In the preseason, nearly half of the shots taken by the Phoenix Suns, specifically 47.5%, were three-pointers, a notable increase from last year's 37.8%. Their new head coach, Mike Budenholzer, has a decade of experience coaching in the NBA and has consistently ensured his teams are among the top half in the league for 3-point shot attempts. He’s been honored as Coach of the Year twice, in 2015 and 2019, during which his teams achieved fourth and third rankings in terms of this statistic.

His team is embracing his strategy. "We need to increase our attempts," said Suns guard Devin Booker to reporters. "Taking more 3-point shots, even if we don't make them, helps to spread out the defense and creates more opportunities for better shots as the game progresses."

Booker’s insights provide a fascinating perspective on a math problem related to NBA shooting statistics. About ten years ago, the average points scored from a 2-point shot was 0.98, while a 3-point shot averaged 1.08 points. This highlighted a significant inefficiency in shot selection. Over the last decade, however, teams have moved away from taking less effective long 2s and have enhanced court spacing to facilitate drives to the basket. Currently, the points scored from 2s and 3s are almost equal per attempt, yet teams continue to prioritize 3-point shots because they create more challenges for defenses.

There is a growing agreement throughout the league that taking three-point shots has become an essential part of the game, regardless of whether a team is particularly skilled at it. As a result, teams are starting to show similar patterns in their shot selection. Last year, the difference in three-point attempt rates between the teams with the most and the least attempts was just 11.9 percentage points, marking the narrowest gap we've seen this century.

Don't anticipate the league's 3-point shooting frequency to jump to 44% this year. Over the last five years, teams typically take slightly fewer 3-point shots during the regular season compared to pre-season games. However, an unprecedented level of 3-point shooting in the NBA seems probable. Similar to how the Rockets' "Moreyball," which was developed by general manager Daryl Morey, advanced league strategies in the late 2010s, "Mazzulla Ball" could have a comparable impact in the 2020s.

“I believe it's positive. Our sport is in a strong position,” Budenholzer commented to reporters. “The diversity of skills and the way these players compete really opens up the game, allowing for more athletic and dynamic moves toward the basket.”

Teams might put all their effort into shooting three-pointers, but what really matters is whether they actually make them. Last season, every one of the 16 teams that reached at least the NBA's average shooting percentage from beyond the arc ended up with a record of 46 wins and 36 losses or better. Most of the other teams that didn't achieve this missed out on the playoffs.