Roubles and rollercoasters: how Moscow won over Moldova’s south

At a breezy amusement park in southern Moldova, a mother of two contemplated which candidate she should support in the upcoming presidential run-off election.

Tatiana Kyvyrzhyk realized she was okay with allowing the oligarch who created the park, Gagauzialand, to make decisions for her. "He'll choose a candidate just the night before," she mentioned.

Moldovan authorities have charged the businessman Ilan Șor with leveraging his power and significant financial support from Russia to organize a close-knit group of voters throughout the nation. This network allegedly allows him to buy their votes and mobilize them to support Moscow’s interests.

According to officials, this network was successfully put into action on Sunday during a significant referendum regarding Moldova's desire to join the EU, yielding an unexpected outcome for President Maia Sandu.

She was convinced that the vote would show strong backing from the people of Moldova for joining the EU and moving away from Russian influence. However, her belief turned out to be wrong. In reality, the "yes" vote barely won, with only a few thousand votes separating it from defeat.

While the votes were still being tallied, Sandu came forward to denounce the "foreign entities" and "criminal organizations" that she claimed had pumped significant amounts of illicit money into an effort to manipulate the election, nearly succeeding in the process. Additionally, she did not manage to win her re-election for a second term on Sunday, and a runoff presidential election has been set for November 3.

According to a Moldovan official, Russia invested around 1 percent of Moldova's GDP in efforts to meddle in the recent dual vote. The official added that Russia is likely to increase its activities next year, especially as Moldova prepares for parliamentary elections.

On Monday, the EU’s diplomatic office stated that "Russia and its allies made efforts to disrupt the democratic voting process in Moldova." They praised Chișinău for successfully conducting elections that were free and fair despite these challenges.

The Kremlin has rejected claims of interference, asserting that Moldova's government has stifled pro-Russian opinions.

Before the vote, the head of the police in Moldova accused Șor, who escaped the country in 2019 after being found guilty of large-scale embezzlement and is currently a Russian citizen residing in Moscow. He has rejected the claims of bribing voters.

In Gagauzia, where support for the European Union was at its weakest, with only 5 percent of votes, Kyvyrzhyk commented that she wasn't concerned about Șor’s image. "Everyone is corrupt," she remarked, "but some are more skilled at it." She pointed out that, unlike others, Șor has put money into developing the park. "They're planning to create an ice rink for the winter," she added.

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Gagauzia, home to around 150,000 residents, has historically viewed itself as distinct from the rest of Moldova. Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the region initially sought independence but later opted for autonomous status within Moldova.

For many years, Moscow has sought to deepen local issues to gain leverage over Chișinău.

It has aimed to take advantage of the Gagauz people's wish for autonomy, a Turkic ethnic minority. This strategy also considers that a significant number of them speak Russian and practice Orthodox Christianity. Additionally, many prefer watching Russian state television, as they struggle to understand the mostly Romanian-language broadcasts from Moldovan channels.

In her hometown, everyone communicated in Russian, according to Kyvyrzhyk, as the influence of the Soviet era is still quite strong. She expressed that she primarily identifies as Russian, then Gagauz, and does not see herself as Moldovan at all.

However, Gagauzia has faced economic struggles for an extended period, and those who oppose Sandu argue that by highlighting Russia's influence in the election, she is downplaying the valid frustrations people have with her leadership over the past four years. This could be driving some citizens away from her European Union aspirations as well.

“Euros? What euros?” remarked a woman in the village of Beșalma in Gagauzia, mentioning Moldova’s currency as she strolled by a countryside church. “There’s no lei here, much less euros.”

In Comrat, the capital of the region, a vendor selling sweets at the local market expressed that she felt compelled to spend or distribute “every single cent she made.”

“I’m not interested in moving closer to Europe; we should stay aligned with Russia. Life with Russia is much better and more fulfilling. It’s not like this situation we’re in now,” she mentioned, stating that she primarily gets her information from Russian television.

Kyvyrzhyk mentioned that given the many difficulties people in Gagauzia face in making a living, it's not surprising that individuals are willing to sell their votes to anyone who can pay them.

“They’re offering between 200 and 400 lei [$11-$22],” she explained. “Naturally, this will influence people's decisions and they might sell their votes... It’s much simpler to bribe individuals here than in Chișinău. The wages are so low,” she mentioned, noting that she was a stay-at-home mom but would consider working for as little as $280 a month if she could secure a job.

Since Sandu began her campaign to openly distance herself from Russia, applying for EU membership shortly after Moscow's large-scale invasion of Ukraine, and with Șor arriving in Russia in 2021, Moscow has been working harder to maintain its influence in Gagauzia.

In the previous year, the Șor party, which has now been banned due to allegations of receiving illegal funding from the Kremlin, successfully supported a little-known candidate, Evghenia Guțul, in her bid for the position of Baskan, or governor, of Gagauzia.

Șor has rejected any accusations of misconduct.

Although authorities claimed to have discovered a network involved in voter bribery and blackmail that benefited Guţul, she remained in her position. Since then, she has traveled to Russia and met with President Vladimir Putin.

Olga Roșca, Sandu's advisor on foreign affairs, explained that “[Sor] enjoys greater flexibility in Gagauzia due to its autonomous status.” She noted that he and Russia take advantage of the area's historical and cultural connections, as well as its economic difficulties. Consequently, Gagauzia has turned into a stronghold for him to create instability in Chișinău.

Last week, the European Union placed sanctions on Guţul and five other Gagauz politicians for supporting separatist actions and posing a risk to Moldova's sovereignty.

"Since the fall of 2021, Șor has truly aligned himself with Russia, and the Kremlin has begun to back his actions in this region," stated Valeriu Pașa, director of the WatchDog.MD think tank. "At this point, he is the key orchestrator of Russian influence in Moldova."

"According to Pașa, these entities are backing numerous media outlets, influencers, and channels that spread misinformation across various social media platforms and TV advertisements. He noted that the elections for Gagauzia’s governor were one of several significant milestones leading up to the vote on Sunday."

On social media, Șor has publicly opposed EU membership and promised Moldovan pensioners that he will give them an extra monthly payment if they choose to vote “no.”

Șor's latest political party, named Victorie (Victory), features logos and colors reminiscent of the Soviet era, reflecting this in its headquarters located in Comrat, the capital of Gagauzia.

During the presidential election, Sandu received only 2 percent of the votes in Gagauzia, the region where her opponent in the upcoming runoff, Alexandr Stoianoglo, is from.

While at the Comrat market, a former schoolmate of Stoianoglo expressed her confidence that the region would support one of their own. She acknowledged, however, that Stoianoglo’s stance on geopolitical issues is not as straightforward.

On one side, the pro-Russian Socialist party has endorsed his candidacy, with Sandu labeling him as the Kremlin's "favored candidate." However, he is also campaigning as an independent and has generally expressed support for EU integration.

However, the former classmate mentioned that this reflects the broader situation in Moldovan society as it tries to find its way between eastern and western influences.

A few of her kids were employed in Russia, which made her wish for a course that leaned more toward Russian interests. On the other hand, the vendor who supplied goods for her stall had children living in the United States and wanted to align more with Europe. "Everyone has their own preferences!" she remarked.