Moldova referendum: Provision results show thin margin for EU membership

It seems that voters in Moldova have narrowly supported a constitutional change that would pave the way for the country to pursue membership in the European Union.

By Monday morning, official figures showed that 50.08% of votes were in favor while 49.92% were against, with more than 98% of the ballots tallied.

According to Moldovan news outlets, a significant number of uncounted votes were made by voters living overseas, and it's expected that these votes will support Yes, since the Moldovan community abroad generally favors stronger connections with the European Union.

The closely contested outcome of the vote has surprised many. It was generally anticipated that the referendum would easily succeed in the nation of 2.6 million people, situated between Romania and Ukraine.

Maia Sandu, the current president who supports EU integration, previously criticized the close outcome as being influenced by outside forces in Moldova’s political affairs.

She described it as an "unprecedented attack on democracy," pointing to numerous claims that Russia financially incentivized individuals to vote in a particular manner, a charge that Moscow has denied.

Last month, Ilan Shor, a Moldovan businessman and politician with pro-Russian views who currently resides in Russia, announced that he plans to offer financial incentives to persuade as many individuals as he can to either vote against or refrain from voting in the European Union referendum.

In addition to the vote on constitutional amendments, Moldovans participated in the presidential election on Sunday.

The elections were viewed as crucial evaluations for the nation, which must decide whether to continue pursuing membership in the EU or maintain strong connections with Russia.

Sandu led in the first round of the election, but her victory margin was narrower than anticipated, receiving 41% of the votes compared to her nearest rival, who secured 26%. As a result, she will encounter a tough second round in early November, where it’s likely that her opponents will band together against her.

She claimed that "criminal organizations" are colluding with "external powers" to manipulate the election through financial means, deceit, and propaganda.

Sandu also mentioned that her administration possesses "solid proof" indicating that 300,000 votes were purchased, describing this situation as an "unmatched level of deception."

The Kremlin has strongly rejected allegations that it participated in any vote-buying activities.

Moldova is currently engaged in discussions with the EU about joining as a member. These negotiations will proceed regardless of the results from Sunday, since the referendum was not legally obligatory.

The intention of the vote was to solidify the process beyond turning back. Instead, it now seems somewhat uncertain.

Since she didn't secure more than half of the votes, Sandu and the second leading candidate, Aleksandr Stoianoglo—backed by the pro-Russian Party of Socialists—will face each other in a runoff on November 3rd.

Stoianoglo achieved 27%, a result that was notably above what many had anticipated.

Populist Renato Usatii secured third place, trailed by Irina Vlah, the former governor of Gagauzia.

If the other candidates rally around Stoianoglo before the second round, Sandu might face a serious challenge in winning re-election.

On Sunday evening at Sandu's campaign headquarters, the atmosphere was noticeably low-key. One of her advisors remarked that the current outcome was "not what we anticipated."

Sandu, who has established strong connections with Moldova's European Union neighbors, actively supported the Yes vote in the referendum. She had previously mentioned that the outcome of this vote would shape Moldova's future for "many decades to come."

As the initial results started to come in, indicating that the No vote performed better than anticipated, Sandu's team attributed the disappointing outcome to the early counts that were mostly from villages and rural regions.

The tally from the major cities reduced the gap for the No vote, but by 1:00 AM (10:00 PM GMT), very few believed that the Yes side had any hope of winning.

Numerous supporters of Sandu departed from her headquarters in Chisinau, where they had anticipated celebrating her triumph, even before the votes were fully tallied. The small EU flags handed to them have been left behind, either on chairs or discarded on the floor.

A counselor to Sandu mentioned that it seemed like their strategy could have been effective, in connection to the accusations of vote-buying associated with Russia.

When the polls closed at 9:00 PM local time (6:00 PM GMT), voter participation exceeded 51%, ensuring that the referendum was legitimate.

As the evening progressed, the distance continued to close even more.

A number of presidential hopefuls chose to abstain from the referendum. Aleksandr Stoianoglo expressed his opposition to the proposal for constitutional changes, although he emphasized his backing for his nation’s goals of closer ties with Europe.

On Sunday, numerous young individuals waiting in line at the polling stations clearly expressed their desire for Moldova to become a member of the European Union. Several of them mentioned that their votes were driven by a wish to select a European path for their nation, aiming for economic growth and increased opportunities.

Many expressed their frustration with feeling "tugged" in Moscow's direction, even years after the Soviet Union fell apart and Moldova gained its independence.

A voter named Oksana shared with the BBC, "We need to decide on a European path for our nation, for our children, and for our future. It's crucial for geopolitics and maintaining peace. We find ourselves caught between Europe and Russian influence, and we must make a choice about what direction we want to take."

While visiting a polling station in the breakaway Moldovan region of Transnistria, which receives economic, political, and military backing from Russia, the BBC discovered signs of vote-buying.

A producer from the BBC overheard a woman who had just placed her vote in the clear ballot box asking an election observer about where she would receive her payment.

When we asked her outside if someone had offered her money to vote, she openly confessed that it was true. She was upset that the man who had taken her to the voting site was now ignoring her calls. “He deceived me!” she exclaimed.

She remained silent when questioned about her voting choice.

In September, Ilan Shor, the Moldovan businessman on the run who is alleged to have channeled significant sums of money from Russia into Moldova, attempted to bribe individuals to persuade "as many people as possible" to either vote No or refrain from voting in the EU referendum.

This week, Shor released a video urging people to vote for "anyone other than Sandu" in the upcoming presidential election.