Stingy Liverpool Are Showing the Benefits of Balance

Liverpool's offense is impressive, but they've also allowed five fewer goals than any other team in the Premier League this season. This strong defensive performance is a key factor in their nine-point advantage.

It seemed like a standout display, and on a different occasion, it might have led to a significant outcome.

Liverpool secured a 2-0 win against Manchester City on Sunday, allowing Arne Slot's team to restore their nine-point lead at the summit of the Premier League, while extending their advantage over the defending champions to 11 points.

The Reds were in fine form at Anfield, and the 2-0 result was a little generous to their struggling opponents. Liverpool fired off 18 shots, the highest number Manchester City has dealt with in a Premier League match since they last played at Anfield in March, when they faced 19 shots. The home side's expected goals total of 3.6 was the second highest that City has conceded in a Premier League game since Pep Guardiola took charge in 2016, only behind Chelsea’s 4.4 xG during their 2-1 victory over City in June 2020.

If you’re searching for signs, that match officially declared Liverpool as the champions of that season.

On Sunday, Cody Gakpo scored the opening goal for the home team after an excellent pass from Mohamed Salah. This achievement made Gakpo the third Liverpool player to have 10 or more contributions in all competitions this season, with 8 goals and 2 assists, joining the ranks of Salah (24 contributions) and Luis Díaz (11). No other team in the Premier League has as many players in double digits this season.

With those three performing exceptionally well, Liverpool's offense has been receiving a lot of deserved praise as Slot's team has built a significant lead in their pursuit of only their second Premier League title, which would also match the record for a 20th championship in English football. Additionally, they currently lead the league stage of the UEFA Champions League, boasting the only perfect record among all 36 participating teams.

Yet, as Alex Ferguson, the coach who led Manchester United to surpass Liverpool's record, famously stated: “Offense helps you win matches, while defense secures championships.”

Although Liverpool's offense has been noteworthy, their strong defensive efforts have likely played an equally important role in bringing them to this stage.

Manchester City, surprisingly, struggled to make an impact at Anfield. They didn't manage their first shot until the 39th minute, marking the longest they've gone without a shot in a Premier League game since April 2010, when they faced Arsenal and didn’t shoot until the 58th minute.

This has been a recurring pattern for Liverpool this season. They have allowed only eight goals in their 13 Premier League games, which is five goals less than any other team. Their expected goals against (xG conceded) stands at 11.6, also the best in the league. Liverpool has faced 125 shots, making it the second-lowest number, with only Manchester City facing fewer at 113. Additionally, only Arsenal and Nottingham Forest, averaging 0.08 xG, have given up lower xG shots per attempt compared to Liverpool's average of 0.09 xG per shot.

To put it differently, Liverpool is doing a great job of limiting scoring opportunities for their opponents, and the few chances they do allow are often not very dangerous. As a result, rival teams are finding it hard to convert those chances into goals. This season, they have the lowest goal concession rate among all the teams in the Premier League.

Liverpool has allowed the fewest goals among teams in the top five leagues in Europe. While three other teams have also given up only eight goals, Atlético Madrid has played 15 matches and Juventus has played 14, meaning they have had more opportunities to concede.

When considering all matches played by teams in Europe's top five leagues that have played at least 17 games this season, Liverpool stands out with the fewest goals conceded at just 12. Only Bayern Munich, with an expected goals against (xG against) of 0.64, and Lazio at 0.83, have a better average than Liverpool's 0.87 xG against per game.

Anfield is known for being tough on opposing teams. This season, Liverpool has allowed only four goals in 11 matches played at home across all competitions, and they haven't let in more than one goal in any of those matches. Additionally, they've recorded clean sheets in their last four home games against Bayer Leverkusen, Aston Villa, Real Madrid, and Manchester City.

All of this is already quite remarkable, but it becomes even more noteworthy when you realize that the starting goalkeeper, Alisson, hasn't played since the 1-0 victory against Crystal Palace on October 5. In his absence, Caoimhín Kelleher has taken over for the last six league matches and three Champions League games.

The goalkeeper from the Republic of Ireland has adjusted to his new role quite smoothly, even though he is replacing what many consider the best goalkeeper in the world.

Alisson was performing really well, allowing only three goals in nine matches across all competitions before he limped off at Selhurst Park. With an expected goals on target (xGOT) of 5.6, the Brazilian made saves that kept about 2.6 goals from getting past him compared to a typical goalkeeper.

Kelleher has allowed only six goals in 11 matches, despite an expected goals on target (xGOT) of 12.2. This indicates he has effectively thwarted 6.2 goals, aided by two penalty saves against Southampton and Real Madrid. However, it's worth noting that his save from Adam Armstrong in the first match resulted in a rebound goal.

All of this looks promising for Liverpool as they aim to secure a top position by May. But was Ferguson correct? Do the teams that excel in defense usually clinch the championships?

Throughout the history of the Premier League, there have been 12 cases where the team with the strongest defensive performance ended up winning the championship. Additionally, in three other seasons, a team that shared the best defensive stats also claimed the title. However, it's worth noting that there have been 17 instances where the teams that allowed the fewest goals did not secure the Premier League trophy.

This often implies that the team with the strongest defense typically does not end up winning the championship at the conclusion of the season.

In the last 32 seasons of the Premier League, only three teams have managed to win the title while allowing 40 or more goals. Interestingly, all three of those teams were under the management of Ferguson at Manchester United.

As a result, teams need to find a middle ground, and it seems that Liverpool has achieved this balance.

We'll talk about the defenders later, but first, let's highlight the impact of Liverpool's midfield. It has been a little over a year since the team nearly completely revamped this area, and now they're starting to see the benefits, particularly thanks to two key players.

While Alexis Mac Allister is primarily recognized for his composed passing and scoring ability, he has also recorded the fifth-highest number of tackles among midfielders in the Premier League this season, with 32. This demonstrates that he contributes significantly defensively as well.

Ryan Gravenberch has been a standout player in the defensive midfield position this season. He leads the Premier League in recoveries with 75 and ranks second in interceptions with 24 among midfielders. Additionally, for central midfielders specifically, he boasts an impressive duel success rate of 64.7%, placing him second in that category (with a minimum of five appearances).

Having one of the greatest center-backs ever behind them can be a huge advantage for midfielders. This season, Virgil van Dijk has been in outstanding form, commanding from the rear with a presence that is hard to rival.

The song fans sing in his honor reflects his serene demeanor, whether he's in play or not. One might say he was a bit too relaxed when he unintentionally passed the ball to Kevin De Bruyne towards the end of the match at Anfield. However, Kelleher stepped in to rescue him, and given the 33-year-old's otherwise exceptional performance, it's easy to overlook that mistake.

Although he couldn't score a hat-trick with his headers from crosses, Van Dijk was a standout at the back, making a total of three key interceptions and seven clearances on Sunday. He managed to clear the ball at least five times more than any other player on Liverpool. This season, among all centre-backs in the Premier League, he leads with the highest number of interceptions (25) and ranks third for most aerial duels won (43).

Van Dijk had formed a reliable duo with Ibrahima Konaté at the beginning of the season. However, after Konaté sustained a knee injury during last week's 2-0 victory over Real Madrid in the Champions League, he will be sidelined for the coming weeks. This situation forced Slot to seek different options for the match against City.

Konaté boasts the second-highest success rate in aerial duels among defenders in the Premier League this season (with at least 12 duels played). This meant that when Joe Gomez came in to replace him, he had big shoes to fill, but he rose to the occasion and performed well for Liverpool.

Gomez participated in just one aerial challenge against City, which he successfully won. However, he excelled in possession recovery, managing to regain the ball seven times—more than any other player on the field. At 27, he also led all Liverpool players in touches, highlighting the trust his teammates have in him. This is particularly notable given that he has only played as a right-sided center-back for 7% of his time on the pitch in the Premier League since last season began.

It's worth mentioning that Trent Alexander-Arnold seems to be more involved as a defender under Slot. The England international has faced some absurd criticism regarding his defensive skills over the past few years, but he is making significantly more tackles in the 2024-25 season compared to last year. Currently, Alexander-Arnold is averaging 3.3 tackles per 90 minutes in the Premier League, more than double the 1.6 he recorded in the 2023-24 season. You might assume this increased workload is a general requirement for full-backs under Slot, but in contrast, Andy Robertson's tackling stats have actually dropped from 1.9 tackles per 90 minutes last season to 1.4 this season.

With Salah, Gakpo, Díaz, Diogo Jota, Darwin Núñez, and the less frequently seen Federico Chiesa available for attack, the team's forward line is set to remain in the spotlight as long as the Premier League leaders continue their winning streak.

However, if Liverpool continues to maintain their solid defensive performance, we may need to shift the conversation about their lead in points from whether anyone can catch up with them to how much larger that lead could become.

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