Labour and Lib Dems gleeful as Badenoch to face Jenrick in Tory leadership race

The next leader of the Conservative Party will come from its populist right wing, as Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick emerged as the final two contenders. This development follows a surprising twist, where Tory MPs decided to eliminate James Cleverly from the running.

In an outcome that surprised many Conservatives and brought visible joy to some Labour and Lib Dem officials, a final vote among Tory MPs had Badenoch taking the lead, followed closely by Jenrick, while Cleverly finished last.

With a smart strategy, the shadow home secretary—who is also the last candidate representing the party's center—led the voting in the last round on Tuesday and was seen as the top contender to win, particularly in the final round with party members.

However, the outcome, revealed by Bob Blackman, the chair of the party's 1922 Committee composed of backbenchers, indicated a drop in support for Cleverly. He went from 39 votes on Tuesday – just one vote shy of the 40 required for a guaranteed position – to 37 votes.

Badenoch's support increased from 30 votes on Tuesday to 42. Meanwhile, Jenrick's backing rose from 31 votes to 41. The ultimate choice will now be determined through a vote among Conservative party members, with the results set to be revealed on November 2nd.

The outcome left several Conservative MPs feeling disappointed, especially those who belong to the more moderate One Nation faction of the party. They now find themselves having to choose between two figures from the right because of efforts aimed at tactical voting. "We’ve just overthought it," one of them remarked.

Another Conservative MP reported that they have started receiving messages from local constituents asking, “What on earth are you doing?”

Party insiders noted that it was quite remarkable how many more moderate members participated in the competition, which gave additional support to Cleverly's campaign.

Nadine Dorries, the former Conservative cabinet minister, expressed on X: “Members of Parliament had a straightforward task. Their role was to act reasonably and select the individual most capable of leading them. It was not a difficult decision.” At the party conference in Birmingham last week, Cleverly encouraged party members to embrace a more ordinary approach.

The most recent development in the competition led to instant speculation about possible scheming and vote-sharing. There are suggestions that Cleverly's group aimed to exclude Badenoch, who was originally viewed as the top choice among party members, from the final ballot but made a significant error in judgment.

Nevertheless, a representative from Cleverly's team stated that there was "definitely no planned vote lending from our campaign at any time." Similarly, a source from Jenrick's team confirmed the same.

Some other MPs indicated that a number of Tugendhat's supporters, who was removed from the race on Tuesday, believed that their centrist colleague Cleverly was likely to secure a place in the final two. This led them to support Badenoch instead, as they were unhappy with Jenrick's commitment to withdraw the UK from the European Convention on Human Rights.

No matter the outcome, it’s clear that the next leader of the opposition will definitely be aligned with the conservative side of the party. The key distinctions between Jenrick and Badenoch lie primarily in their focus areas. Jenrick has concentrated on immigration policies, while Badenoch has placed greater emphasis on cultural issues and reforming institutions.

Both have claimed that they can bring the party together, and Jenrick was previously regarded as a moderate. However, after resigning from his position as immigration minister in Rishi Sunak’s administration, he has adopted a more right-wing and occasionally populist stance, vowing to withdraw the UK from the ECHR as soon as he steps into the role of prime minister.

Jenrick has framed the topic of withdrawal in a manner similar to Brexit, referring to it as a matter of "leaving or staying." He has expressed his desire to "resolve the migration issue."

Badenoch has adopted a more detailed perspective on the matter. Following the outcome on Wednesday, she mentioned to Sky News that concentrating solely on the ECHR stifles the important discussion we need to engage in with the whole nation regarding migration.

Although Jenrick assured Sky that he could definitely guarantee a fair competition, his team has already begun to emphasize their rival's tendency to engage in conflicts related to cultural issues.

According to a source close to Jenrick, Tory members will need to choose between supporting a candidate who has a solid plan and well-defined policies or getting caught up in pointless debates and online arguments that lead nowhere.

Following the outcome, Cleverly expressed on X: "Unfortunately, it didn't go our way. We are all part of the Conservative party, and it's crucial for us to come together to challenge this disastrous Labour Government."

However, the Labour Party described the job of Conservative members as "deciding between two key figures responsible for Tory failures," highlighting the government positions held by Badenoch, who is the shadow housing secretary, and Jenrick.

Behind closed doors, cabinet ministers were quite pleased. One minister shared with the Guardian, "After a little break, it seems Keir's influence is strong again." In a lighthearted nod to the controversy over government donations, a Labour MP quipped, "Should the outcome of the Tory leadership contest be reported as a gift?"

The Liberal Democrats remarked, "If this were an actual hiring process, they would have reposted the job listing. The best candidates the Conservatives have to offer are a former minister who supports Donald Trump and another former minister who believes maternity pay is too generous."

Jenrick stated that he would support Trump if he were in the United States. Meanwhile, Badenoch sparked controversy with her remarks on maternity pay, which were part of a number of contentious statements she made at last week's Conservative conference. Some felt these comments could have impacted her prospects for success.

During the competition, several Conservative MPs expressed worries that she could be a risk as the party leader due to her tendency to be disrespectful and harsh. Prior to the election, she faced accusations of fostering a hostile environment in the government department she previously managed.