The number that spells trouble for Keir Starmer

Keir Starmer is likely to win by a large margin, but some survey experts believe that Labour could secure 450 out of 650 seats in the House of Commons with less than 40 percent of the votes. John Curtice, a highly respected election analyst, is cautioning Labour not to think that their strong presence in the House of Commons accurately represents their popularity among the general public.

There are some people who support Starmer who are feeling anxious that on July 5th, those who criticize him from the left will be able to mention that Jeremy Corbyn got a higher percentage of votes (40%) than Starmer did when he eliminated Theresa May's majority in 2017. If this happens, those on the left will likely argue that Corbyn could have received even more votes with a more ambitious plan. (Ignoring the fact that Corbyn's unrealistic agenda was rejected in the 2019 election.)

Winning isn't always straightforward with our current voting system. In 2005, Tony Blair managed to secure a majority with only 35% of the vote. Margaret Thatcher also benefited from a split left-of-center vote between Labour and the Liberal-SDP Alliance. Now, the situation is reversed with Labour benefiting from a split right-wing vote between the Tories and Reform UK.