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Serie A Odds, Picks & Predictions: How to Bet Juventus vs. Sassuolo (Sunday, Jan. 10)

Dillon Essma breaks down Sunday's Serie A fixture between reigning-champion Juventus and upstart Sassuolo (ESPN+, 2:45 p.m. ET).

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Juventus vs. Sassuolo Odds Juventus Odds -286 [BET NOW] Sassuolo Odds +750 [BET NOW] Draw +425 [BET NOW] Over/Under 3.5 (+123/-152) [BET NOW] Time 2:45 p.m. ET How To Watch ESPN+

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Juventus look to build off their huge win over Serie A-leading AC Milan on Sunday when they welcome Sassuolo, who are sixth in the table. While they are close in the table, Juventus should really assert their dominance and pick up three points.

Let’s see if Sassuolo can put up a fight.

Juventus

The boys from Turin are on a great run of form coming off impressive victories over AC Milan (3-1) and Udinese (4-1). Juventus have created at least 2.00 expected goals (xG) in six of their last seven games, according to Understat, with a loss to Fiorentina on Dec. 22 serving as the only outlier.

The win over Udinese was really a dominant performance, generating 3.54 xG. It was surprising just how much they were able to dominate Milan, taking the xG battle, 2.36-1.03.

The Bianconeri sit fifth in the table with a game in hand on most of the league but two on Milan, whom they sit 10 points behind. While they’re just outside the top four, Juventus are playing like the best team in Italy right now and should be treated as such by bettors and oddsmakers.

Cristiano Ronaldo has been superb, while wingback Federico Chiesa and American midfielder Weston McKennie are thriving. Manager Andrea Pirlo has to be happy with what he is seeing. Juventus’ recent form has moved them up to fourth in the league in non-penalty expected goal difference (NPxGD) at +16.27, trailing Napoli, Roma and Atalanta.

What has impressed me has been Juve’s attack. For a while, they were struggling to create good chances and really depended on Ronaldo and goals from set pieces. Now, multiple players are creating chances and the team’s attack is far more fluid. Ronaldo still scores most of the goals, but it’s not all about him going forward.

Defensively, Juventus’ non-penalty expected goals against is second in the league (14.01), trailing only Napoli (10.26).

The Bianconeri could be a team to watch out for in the Champions League and will definitely have something to say in the race for the Scudetto.

Sassuolo

Sassuolo currently sit sixth in the Serie A table, which I’m sure they are happy with considering the injuries they’ve dealt with and how they have played.

Not to sound too harsh, but this side has been underwhelming for over a month now. Sassuolo can still take care of sides in the middle or bottom of the table, but they really tend to struggle with the heavy hitters in Italy. Napoli is the only top-six side they have beaten, and that result was fortunate for them (1.52-2.14 xG). Aside from that, there has been a 3-0 loss to Inter, 2-1 loss to Milan and 5-1 loss to Atalanta.

I still will look to back Sassuolo when they play the right teams, but they are a fade against superior opposition. On top of that, they may be without Domenico Berardi, which would be a tough blow against the defending champs.

While Sassuolo sit sixth in the table, NPxGD ranks them 10th. So it would not surprise me if we saw them drift toward the mid-table. Generating 1.27 non-penalty expected goals per game is pretty far below teams above them in the table. Some of that has to do with them being without Francesco Caputo for five games. However, it just might be a difference of quality if you watch them play.

I like the story of the smaller club, but Sassuolo are clearly in the 7-10 range, for me, in Italy this season.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Sassuolo are a fade against the top-six, and that definitely includes Juve. I think Juventus are playing the best soccer in the league right now, and I would not want to play them.

On top of that, Sassuolo have been outclassed when playing top-six clubs this season. Because of that, I am on Juventus -1.5 (-106). I would like this up to -120.

Pick: Juventus -1.5 (-106)

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