What to look out for in Ireland's general election - with counting underway

The vote counting process has begun in Ireland's general election.

However, in contrast to the UK, it won't just require a few hours to fill all 174 seats; it will take a considerable amount of time to establish a government as well.

Here are three things to pay attention to while the votes are being tallied.

1. The primary competition among the top parties to reach 88.

That's the figure required for a majority in Ireland's House of Representatives, known as the Dáil.

However, the three biggest parties—Fianna Fail (FF), Fine Gael (FG), and Sinn Féin (SF)—haven't nominated enough candidates to achieve this goal. As a result, they will be looking for coalition allies.

In the previous election, Fianna Fáil secured 38 seats, Sinn Féin gained 37, and Fine Gael captured 35, reflecting similar levels of support as indicated by Friday's exit poll.

The center-right parties Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, which were part of the previous government alongside the Green Party, have pledged to avoid forming a coalition with the leftist party Sinn Fein.

If the exit poll reflects the actual results closely, it seems probable that a coalition between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will form, possibly including another political party or independent representatives.

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However, if Sinn Féin manages to convert their backing into a considerable increase in the number of seats compared to the previous election, it would strengthen the party's negotiating power. This could give Mary Lou McDonald a real possibility of becoming Ireland's first female Taoiseach.

2. Performance of the Smaller Parties

Ireland uses a voting system called proportional representation through single transferable vote, which allows smaller political parties to secure more seats compared to similar parties in the UK.

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On the left side, you'll find Labour, the Social Democrats, and the Greens, all showing support levels of around 4% to 6% according to the exit polling. This group also includes the People Before Profit-Solidarity alliance.

On the right side, you'll find the SF breakaway group Aontu along with several newly established far-right parties, the biggest of which is Independent Ireland.

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It’s probable that one of these parties will end up collaborating with FF and FG to create a government, depending on the number of seats they manage to secure.

3. The Performance of Independent Candidates

One unusual feature of Ireland's electoral process is the large presence of independent candidates.

According to the exit poll, independents are projected to account for 14.6% of the vote, which suggests they may secure a considerable number of seats. In the 2020 elections, independent candidates won 19 seats with 12.2% of the votes cast.

A three-party coalition probably won't be able to achieve the 88-seat majority needed, making it crucial to gain backing from independent members.

In 2016, there were nine independent members in the minority government led by Fine Gael, and three of them held positions as ministers.

Independent candidates originate from a wide range of political beliefs and frequently center their attention on very local matters.