Irish general election: Exit poll suggests tight three-way race
Kevin Sharkey and Amy Murray
An exit poll in Ireland indicates that Sinn Féin has secured 21.1% of the first preference votes, while Fine Gael is just behind with 21%. This means the outcome of the general election is extremely uncertain.
The survey shows that Fianna Fáil has received 19.5% of the votes for first choice.
It indicates that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael receive 20% of the second-choice votes, while Sinn Féin accounts for 17%.
The exit poll was released at 10:00 PM local time and conducted by Ipsos B&A for RTÉ, The Irish Times, TG4, and Trinity College Dublin. It has an error margin of 1.4%.
During the 2020 Irish general election, Sinn Féin received 24.53% of the first-choice votes, while Fianna Fáil garnered 22.18% and Fine Gael achieved 20.86%.
Source of the image: PA Media
Voting ended at 10:00 PM local time during the election in the Republic of Ireland.
According to a poll conducted on Friday, the Green Party has a first choice support of 4%. Labour is at 5%, while the Social Democrats have 5.8%. People Before Profit-Solidarity stands at 3.1%, and independents are at 12.7%. Independent Ireland has 2.2%, and other parties account for 1.9%.
The survey is based on 5,018 interviews that were conducted right after individuals cast their votes at polling stations in 43 districts throughout the Republic of Ireland.
The findings from this survey pave the way for the official vote counting, which is scheduled to begin at 9:00 AM local time on Saturday and is anticipated to carry on throughout the weekend.
Some of the 43 districts might not have their final results ready until early next week.
The individuals who are elected are called Teachtaí Dála (TDs), and there are 174 positions available. However, the Ceann Comhairle (the speaker) is re-elected automatically.
Over 680 applicants vied for the last 173 spots.
To achieve an overall majority, a total of 88 seats is needed. However, no individual party is putting forward enough candidates to secure that majority by themselves.
Image credit: PA Media
The official tallying will start on Saturday morning.
The initial gathering of the new Dáil (the lower chamber of parliament) is scheduled for December 18, but it's improbable that discussions for forming a coalition will be completed by that date.
A government will be officially established once the Dáil votes to appoint a new taoiseach (the Irish prime minister).
Most people don’t anticipate that a new government will be established before 2025.
It took four months following the 2020 general election for Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and the Green Party to come to an agreement to establish the previous Irish government.
Sinn Féin has emerged as the top opposition party, and both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have made it clear that they will not consider forming a coalition with them if the election results are similar to the last.
In the Dáil, the three biggest parties are accompanied by several smaller parties and a considerable number of independent candidates.
Top Political Parties You Should Know
Historically, the political landscape in the Republic has been largely influenced by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.
Both groups formed as a result of differing nationalist views on the Anglo-Irish Treaty of 1921.
Fianna Fáil used to be regarded as a centrist party, while Fine Gael was viewed as more conservative. However, the distinctions between the two have become less clear over time, and both are currently recognized as centre-right parties.
This year's election marks the first significant electoral challenge for Simon Harris, the leader of Fine Gael and the Taoiseach.
He took on the position in April, becoming the youngest individual to lead the Republic of Ireland at the age of 37, following the resignation of his predecessor, Leo Varadkar.
Sinn Féin is a political party in Ireland that advocates for republicanism and democratic socialism, and it serves as the primary party in opposition.
Mary Lou McDonald became the leader of the party in 2018, and since then, the politician from Dublin has worked to separate her party from criticism regarding its past connections to IRA violence.
Photo credit: PA Media
Mary Lou McDonald submitted her vote in Dublin on Friday morning.
In 2020, Sinn Féin achieved notable success, leading the popular vote and securing 37 seats.
Since that time, it has grown to be the biggest political party in all of Northern Ireland's councils, as well as in the assembly and at Westminster.
Other groups nominating candidates for the election consist of Labour, Social Democrats, PBP-Solidarity, Aontú, and the recently established Independent Ireland.
Gender Divides And Their Impact On Transfers
Image credit: PA Media
Simon Harris took his family to the voting site in County Wicklow.
The exit poll indicates that there was a difference in first-choice votes based on gender.
Statistics indicate that 22% of those who supported Sinn Féin were men, whereas 20% were women.
In the survey, 20% of the respondents who supported Fine Gael were men, whereas 22% were women.
Fianna Fáil received 19% of the votes from men and 20% from women.
Irish President Michael D. Higgins, joined by his wife Sabina, cast their votes at St. Mary’s Hospital located in Phoenix Park, Dublin.
When it comes to transfers, 39% of the second-choice votes for Fianna Fáil went to a candidate from another party, while 30% were directed to a Fine Gael candidate. Around 5% of the transfers were given to Sinn Féin.
The survey revealed that roughly 37% of transfers from Fine Gael were directed to another candidate, while 32% were given to a candidate from Fianna Fáil.
"It Might Be A Challenge"
Insights from Enda McClafferty, political editor at BBC News NI.
Exit polls aren't perfect, but they provide a useful insight into how people are voting.
In 2020, it accurately forecasted a tight race among Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, and Sinn Féin, with just three seats distinguishing the parties in the final outcome.
If the exit poll is accurate this time, Sinn Féin will be happy with how they did.
Slightly surpassing Fine Gael, but falling short of the nearly 25% that Sinn Féin achieved in 2020.
The party entered the election campaign under challenging circumstances, struggling with numerous controversies and disappointing results in the European and local council elections held in June, where they managed to obtain only 12% of the votes.
During the three-week campaign, it successfully regained lost momentum by offering the assurance of change.
However, fulfilling that promise may prove difficult if the exit poll turns out to be accurate.
It indicates that Fine Gael, polling at 21%, and Fianna Fáil, at 19.5%, might be able to rejoin the government, potentially with support from a couple of smaller parties and some independent members.
Sinn Féin's road to gaining power has become more difficult than they anticipated, as they aimed to head a coalition of left-leaning parties. However, they might face difficulties in securing enough support due to the performance of these smaller parties.
However, we will only get a complete understanding once all the results are collected.
Leaders Cast Their Votes
Image credit: PA Media
Micheál Martin, the leader of Fianna Fáil, cast his ballot with his family in County Cork on Friday.
Previously, Simon Harris, the leader of Fine Gael, became the first prominent party leader to cast his vote.
Harris and his family headed to Delgany National School in County Wicklow soon after the polls started at 7:00 AM local time.
Micheál Martin, the Irish deputy prime minister and head of Fianna Fáil, cast his vote alongside his family at St. Anthony's Boys National School in Ballinlough, County Cork.
Mary Lou McDonald from Sinn Féin cast her vote at Deaf Village Ireland, located on the Navan Road in Dublin.
Holly Cairns, the head of the Social Democrats, experienced the day of the election in a unique way, as she welcomed her baby that very same day.
This Instagram post can't be shown in your browser. Please turn on Javascript or switch to another browser. You can also view the original content on Instagram.
The BBC does not take responsibility for the content found on external websites.
Ignore the Instagram post by holly_cairns_td.
This article features content from Instagram. We need your approval before loading anything, since they might use cookies and various technologies. You might want to check out Meta’s Instagram cookie policy and privacy policy before agreeing. To see this content, simply select ‘accept and continue’.
The BBC does not take responsibility for the information found on outside websites.
In other areas, officials made special efforts for the residents of the island on election day.
Caroline Sharkey, the presiding officer, along with Garda Ronan Steede, traveled to Gola Island, located off the west coast of County Donegal in Ireland. There, 31 registered voters had the opportunity to cast their votes in the living room of a local resident.
Officials made a trip to Gola Island to enable the 31 registered voters there to participate in the election.
The election results will be broadcast on BBC Two NI at 6:00 PM GMT on Saturday, and on BBC One NI during Sunday Politics at 10:00 AM GMT.
The BBC News NI website will have a live page featuring the most recent updates throughout the weekend.
