Irish general election: Counting gets under way

The counting of votes will begin at 9:00 AM local time throughout the Republic of Ireland.

Counting has started in the Irish general election, with exit polls indicating a tight race among the three leading parties.

According to the results from Friday's exit poll, Sinn Féin is slightly leading in first preference votes compared to both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.

A historic total of 174 Teachtaí Dála (TDs) are expected to be elected, an increase from 160 in 2020 due to changes in constituency boundaries.

Currently, there are 43 Dáil constituencies, an increase from 39 in 2020. Each constituency will elect between three and five TDs.

In the Dáil, one of the seats is occupied by the Ceann Comhairle (Speaker), which means that to secure an overall majority, a total of 88 TDs is necessary.

Over 680 applicants vied for the last 173 available positions.

Vote counting started at over 40 locations throughout the country at 9:00 AM local time, with initial results anticipated later in the day.

The exit poll indicates a competitive contest involving the three major political parties.

"Expect Winners And Losers Ahead"

Kevin Sharkey from BBC News NI is reporting from Dublin.

Ballot boxes are being opened, and the votes are being removed at counting centers across the nation.

Experienced political leaders are keeping a close watch on the initial appearance of ballots for hints regarding the possible results in all 43 electoral districts.

Some party supporters are starting to interpret the early results, but it's still too soon to understand the overall voting trends in Ireland.

This is likely to shift as we get closer to lunchtime and more votes are counted.

By the end of today, some will emerge victorious while others will not, and the same will happen again tomorrow.

For some, the excruciating wait might stretch into early next week.

After all the seats have been occupied, the next step is to start the process of creating a new government.

Unless these results show a significantly different picture compared to the exit polls, it appears that the two major parties in the current government, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, are in a strong position to regain power.

Sinn Féin is likely to continue seeking a way into government, but the chances may not be favorable for the party, even if its performance is better than what the exit poll suggests.

The political party, which has been advocating for a new direction and a shift in leadership, might need to brace itself for another period sitting in the opposition in the Dáil.

That’s not the direction Mary Lou McDonald intended to take her party.

Friday's Exit Poll: What Did It Reveal?

The results released at 10:00 PM local time showed that Sinn Féin received 21.1% of the first-choice votes. Fine Gael closely followed with 21%, while Fianna Fáil came in third with 19.5%.

It was also indicated that 20% of the votes for second preferences are for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, while Sinn Féin receives 17%.

The exit poll was conducted by Ipsos B&A for RTÉ, The Irish Times, TG4, and Trinity College Dublin, gathering data from 5,018 interviews completed at polling locations.

It has a possible error rate of 1.4%.

The findings indicate a tight competition among the smaller parties, as there is only a 2% difference between Labour, the Green Party, and the Social Democrats.

During the 2020 Irish general election, Sinn Féin received 24.53% of the first-choice votes. Fianna Fáil followed with 22.18%, and Fine Gael garnered 20.86%.

If the exit poll results are accurate, backing for independent candidates seems to have decreased from 15% in 2020 to 12%.

Additional data from Friday’s exit poll highlighted the differences in gender among various political parties and indicated which parties voters favored as their second choice.

Sinn Féin is set to secure the most votes from the public for the second consecutive general election.

If the exit poll is accurate, Sinn Féin appears to be set to secure the most votes in the general election for the second time in a row.

However, similar to 2020, there isn't a definite route to gaining influence.

The current coalition partners, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, are in a strong position to secure enough support to re-enter the government, potentially with the help of a smaller party.

According to the polls, the two could come back with around 75 to 80 seats, which would leave them a little short of the 88 required for a majority.

Sinn Féin will be aiming to exceed expectations from the polls, just like they did in 2020.

However, it might not be sufficient to create a coalition of left-wing parties that leaves out Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.

Counting Votes: What You Need To Know

The government of the Republic of Ireland is chosen through a proportional representation system called the single transferable vote.

Voters prioritize the candidates in their local area by ranking them based on their preferences. To secure a position, candidates must obtain a minimum number of votes.

The process of counting the votes occurs in several stages.

Every vote is first allocated to the preferred option.

When a candidate obtains the necessary number of votes, they are declared elected. After this, any ballots that indicated them as the first choice will have their votes reassigned to the second preferred candidates.

Votes will keep being moved to the next available choice until all the positions in the district are occupied by candidates who have met the required quota.

When Will The Results Be Announced?

Because of the voting process, it can occasionally take several days to tally the votes, and establishing a government may require even more time.

It took four months following the 2020 general election for Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and the Green Party to come to an agreement and establish a government.

Sinn Féin emerged as the main opposition party, while both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have already dismissed the idea of forming a coalition with them.

The initial gathering of the new Dáil (the lower house of parliament) is set for December 18, but it's improbable that discussions for forming a coalition will be wrapped up by that time.

A government will be officially established when the Dáil votes to appoint a new Taoiseach (the Irish prime minister), although this is not anticipated to happen until 2025.