Irish election exit poll predicts even split between three main parties

An exit poll in Ireland indicates a tight race between Sinn Féin and the ruling party, Fine Gael, in the general election, with Fianna Fáil trailing just a bit behind.

The poll on first choice votes serves as the initial clear sign of Ireland's voting patterns following three weeks of campaigning in the snap election called by Simon Harris.

According to the poll, Sinn Féin, which entered the election as the third most favored party, secured the top position with 21.1% of the vote. They were closely followed by Harris’s party, which received 21%, and Fianna Fáil, previously leading in the latest polls, came in third with 19.5%.

The departing finance minister from Fianna Fáil noted that it was evident that many seats were going to be very close, and the information was within the possible range of error.

Information about second preferences indicated that Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, headed by Micheál Martin, performed well, each capturing a 20% share of the vote. Sinn Féin followed with 17% in second preferences, as revealed by the exit poll. The poll has a margin of error of 1.4%.

Damien English, representing Fine Gael, informed the Irish broadcaster RTÉ that the findings indicated “a highly favorable outcome” for the party, potentially leading to “37 or 38 seats, which would result in 20 new TDs [members of the Irish parliament].”

The left-wing party, headed by Mary Lou McDonald, will likely feel encouraged by the idea that it has made some gains against the nation’s two major political parties. This comes after they entered the campaign facing challenges from scandals and a drop in support among their key supporters due to their stance on immigration.

Matt Carthy, Sinn Féin’s election director, praised his party's results, noting that it represents a noteworthy improvement compared to their lackluster performance in the local and European elections held in June.

Carthy commented to RTÉ, "Taking into account the outcome of the local and European elections, I must say this is an outstanding result."

He mentioned, "We remember that in 2020, the exit poll underestimated Sinn Féin by more than 2%. If something similar happens tomorrow morning, there's a good chance that Sinn Féin will come out of these elections as the biggest political party."

Carthy didn't want to speculate on what the exit poll might indicate for forming a coalition. "This exit poll is very encouraging, but the actual votes will be tallied tomorrow, so we'll have to wait to see the final results," he stated.

Harris seems to have performed a bit better than what the polls suggested this week. The polls indicated a six-point decline in support, dropping from 25% at the start of the three-week campaign to 19%.

A survey involving roughly 5,000 voters who voted during the day was conducted by Ipsos MRBI for RTÉ, The Irish Times, TG4, and Trinity College Dublin. However, there are two important caveats to keep in mind: the results only showcase first preference votes, and there is a margin of error to consider.

Gary Murphy, a politics professor at Dublin City University, shared with RTÉ that Fine Gael would feel a sense of relief from the exit poll results, especially considering the "significant and rapid" drop in their popularity reflected in the recent polls.

The fourth largest category is expected to comprise independents, making up 12.7% of the total, which is significantly lower than the nearly 20% predicted in some earlier surveys.

The results in Ireland are determined using a proportional representation system, which makes it harder to foresee the outcomes and takes more time for the final results to be announced. Voters rank the candidates, and if their top choice is no longer in the running or has been elected, their second preferences will be allocated to the remaining candidates still in contention.

The counting of votes from Friday's election won't start until 9 a.m. on Saturday, and we should have almost final results by Sunday evening. Meanwhile, the political parties will be conducting their own unofficial vote counts in all 43 constituencies and are likely to share their predictions for the election outcomes around midday on Saturday.

If one party doesn't have a clear majority, which is unlikely, it might take weeks to establish a new government. This will happen as different parties engage in discussions and negotiations to decide on the composition of a coalition government.

The Dáil has a total of 174 seats, and to secure a definitive majority, about 88 of those seats are required. Nevertheless, it’s more likely that a coalition government will form rather than one party holding a majority on its own.

At the same time, the head of the Social Democrat party shared the joyful news of welcoming a baby girl on election day. Holly Cairns, who is campaigning for re-election in the Cork South-West area, took to Instagram to say, “She’s arrived. We are completely smitten with her.”