Ireland’s voters unhappy with taoiseach Simon Harris, election exit poll shows

Voters in Ireland have shown their unhappiness with the prime minister, Simon Harris, even though an exit poll suggests that the current government is likely to win the upcoming election.

In a survey conducted among 5,000 voters right after they cast their ballots, 35% chose Micheál Martin, the leader of Fianna Fáil, as their preferred candidate for the next leader of the 34th Dáil.

Establishing Sinn Féin’s position in Irish politics and showcasing the appeal of its current leader, 34% of respondents expressed their desire for the party's president, Mary Lou McDonald, to be the country's leader. This was significantly higher than the 27% support for Simon Harris, the head of Fine Gael, who placed third in the exit poll.

While voters don't directly select the taoiseach, the results from the exit poll are a wake-up call for the two primary political parties. Approximately 59% of young people aged 18 to 34 expressed a preference for McDonald as the country's leader, with support rising to 56% among those aged 25 to 34.

Given that a coalition appears to be the most probable result, the possibility of a new government headed by Sinn Féin is unlikely. Both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have dismissed the idea of partnering with the party, which is linked to the former political faction of the IRA in Northern Ireland.

Harris, 38, who announced the sudden election just three weeks ago, started the campaign as a frontrunner. However, several missteps, including an uncomfortable interaction with a healthcare worker, have hurt his reputation.

It seems he received 21% of the initial votes, placing him just behind Sinn Féin at 21.1% and narrowly ahead of Fianna Fáil, which is expected to take third place with 19.5%.

"I believe there was significant support for the concept of a left-leaning alternative up until approximately a year or a year and a half ago, but then it lost its momentum," stated Richard Boyd Barrett, leader of the People Before Profit group of TDs (members of parliament), who are anticipated to receive around 3.1% of the votes.

Olwyn Enright, the director of elections for Fine Gael, described the exit poll as a promising sign for the party. However, she expressed her surprise at how people responded regarding their preferences for the taoiseach.

Jack Chambers, the outgoing finance minister from Fianna Fáil, stated that the outcome was “too tight to determine.”

In other news, the exit poll revealed the following results: Social Democrats at 5.8%, Labour at 5%, Greens at 4%, Aontú at 3.6%, People Before Profit-Solidarity at 3.1%, and Independent Ireland at 2.2%. Independents and other candidates combined accounted for 14.6%. It's worth noting that there is a margin of error of 1.4%.

The ballot boxes were opened at 9 AM on Saturday. The initial results showing the count of first preference votes are likely to come in late afternoon, and it's expected that the counting process won't wrap up until sometime on Sunday night or Monday morning.

The analysis of voters' alternative choices in the exit poll showed that both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael received 20%, while Sinn Féin accounted for 17%.

The uncertain outcomes indicate that attention will now focus on seeking potential coalition partners. Discussions about forming a government might last for several weeks, which means a new government may not be in place until January at the earliest.

To achieve a clear majority in the 174-seat Dáil, a party needs 87 seats. However, no single party is likely to be able to secure that many on its own, as projections suggest that each of the three main parties will end up with around 30 seats.

The anticipated outcomes seem to go against the usual pattern seen in Europe, as established political parties are expected to stay in power, and immigration issues are dropping lower on voters' lists of concerns, even after the unusual riots that occurred in Dublin a year prior.

The issue of housing and homelessness has become the top concern for voters, with 28% identifying it as the most significant factor influencing their choices. This comes after considerations like the cost of living, the economy, and health, while immigration was mentioned by only 6% of respondents.

In contrast to the UK's first-past-the-post electoral system, Ireland uses proportional representation. This method enables voters to rank their preferred candidates, who are then removed in a series of rounds as votes are redistributed.

The Green party, currently supporting the government led by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, is likely to drop a few of its 12 seats, with forecasts showing they might receive around 4% of the vote. Meanwhile, Labour is slightly leading with 5%, while the Social Democrats are poised to become the fourth largest party, with an expected 5.8% of the vote.

A smaller party, the right-leaning Aontú, seems to have increased its support, potentially earning more seats than the Greens.

Peadar Tóibín, the leader of the party, shared with RTÉ that they believe Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, both of which originated from the civil war aftermath in the 1920s, are increasingly merging into a single political entity. He noted that approximately 60% of voters are supporting a variety of other parties.

A survey of around 5,000 voters who voted throughout the day was conducted by Ipsos MRBI for RTÉ, the Irish Times, TG4, and Trinity College Dublin. However, there are two important cautions to consider: it only shows first preference votes and has an associated margin of error.