Counting gets under way in Irish general election
Polls Indicate Upsets For Some Irish Ministers
Image credit: PA Media
The counting process will begin at 9:00 AM local time throughout the Republic of Ireland.
Here is a rewritten version of that section: Political editor for BBC News Northern Ireland
The counting process has started in the Irish general election, with exit polls indicating a tight race among the three main political parties.
Results from the exit poll on Friday indicate that Sinn Féin is slightly leading over Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil in terms of first-choice votes.
Initial estimates suggest that certain government ministers might find it difficult to keep their positions.
A historic high of 174 Members of the Dáil (TDs) are expected to be elected, an increase from 160 in 2020 due to changes in constituency boundaries.
You can keep up with the live results right here.
There are currently 43 constituencies in the Dáil, an increase from 39 in 2020, and each will select between three and five members of the Dáil (TDs).
In the Dáil, one position is held by the Ceann Comhairle (Speaker), which means that 88 TDs are needed to achieve an overall majority.
Over 680 individuals vied for the last 173 positions.
Voting results are being tallied at over 40 locations throughout the country, starting at 09:00 local time. The initial results are anticipated to be available later in the day.
Sinn Féin is likely to secure the most votes in the upcoming general election, marking the second time in a row they achieve this.
Sinn Féin has received strong support in recent polls, but it remains uncertain how the party plans to leverage this backing to secure a role in government.
Based on the initial counts, it looks like Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are in a strong position to return to the government. Together, they could potentially secure around 75 to 80 seats, which is just shy of the 88 needed to achieve a majority.
Both sides have dismissed the idea of collaborating with Sinn Féin in a power-sharing arrangement.
This has led Mary Lou McDonald to consider alternative options, such as forming a minority government with other left-leaning parties and a few independent TDs.
Aoife Moore from BBC News Northern Ireland reporting from Dublin.
Initial counts suggest that certain government ministers may face unexpected outcomes.
While not every box is opened, some patterns are starting to take shape.
In Wicklow, where there are four available seats, Health Minister Stephen Donnelly currently holds the fifth position.
Health was a prominent issue during the election campaign, particularly as the number of people on waiting lists keeps increasing.
Taoiseach Simon Harris, who is the prime minister of Ireland, is in the same electoral district and is currently ahead in the initial vote counts.
In Dublin Mid-West, Roderic O'Gorman, the Minister for Children from the Green Party, is facing challenges early on in the race, currently sitting in sixth position.
O'Gorman found himself in a tough spot, tasked with overseeing the integration and housing of asylum seekers. This was a challenge for the current government, which faced difficulties amidst a wave of misinformation from far-right groups and a shortage of available beds for refugees.
At the same time, it's expected that Mary Lou McDonald, the leader of Sinn Féin, will secure the lead position in the Dublin Central district.
Social Democrat Gary Gannon and Fine Gael minister Paschal Donohoe appear to be secure in their positions.
The last seat is expected to be a tight competition between Labour Party senator Marie Sherlock and independent contender Gerard Hutch.
Hutch, who is also referred to as The Monk, was found not guilty of killing a man at a boxing weigh-in event in a Dublin hotel back in 2016.
Earlier this month, he was granted bail and released from detention in Spain.
Hutch was among nine individuals taken into custody in Spain as a result of a collaborative global inquiry conducted by the Garda National Bureau of Criminal Investigation and the Guardia Civil, focusing on money laundering activities linked to the Hutch Organized Crime Group.
Friday's Exit Poll Results: What They Showed
The exit poll indicates a competitive showdown among the leading parties.
The results released at 10 PM local time showed that Sinn Féin received 21.1% of the first-choice votes, while Fine Gael followed closely with 21%. Fianna Fáil ranked third, securing 19.5%.
It was also indicated that 20% of the second choice votes are supporting Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, while Sinn Féin has received 17%.
The exit poll was conducted by Ipsos B&A on behalf of RTÉ, The Irish Times, TG4, and Trinity College Dublin. It was based on a total of 5,018 interviews that were completed outside of polling locations.
It has a margin of error of 1.4%.
If the exit poll is accurate, Sinn Féin is set to secure the most votes in the popular election for a second consecutive time.
However, similar to 2020, there isn’t a definitive route to gaining influence.
The current coalition partners, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, are in a strong position to regain seats in the government with the help of a smaller party.
If the polling data is accurate, the duo might come back with around 75 to 80 seats, falling slightly short of the 88 required for a complete majority.
Sinn Féin is optimistic that their performance will exceed what the polls indicate, just like it did in 2020.
However, simply bringing together left-leaning parties without including Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil might not suffice to create a coalition.
Understanding The Vote Counting Process
In the Republic of Ireland, the government is chosen through a proportional representation system called the single transferable vote.
Voters prioritize the candidates in their area based on what they prefer, and candidates must obtain a specific number of votes to win the election.
The process of counting the votes happens in several stages.
At the start, every vote is assigned to the top preference.
When a candidate achieves the necessary number of votes, they are declared elected. Any leftover ballots that listed this candidate as the top choice will then be passed on to those marked as the second choice.
Votes keep being moved to the next preferred choice until all the positions in the district are filled by candidates who have met the required number of votes.
After all the seats are occupied, the next step will be to start putting together a new government.
When Will The Results Be Announced?
Because of the voting process, it can occasionally take several days to tally the votes, and the formation of a government may take even more time.
It took four months following the 2020 general election for Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and the Green Party to come to an agreement to establish a government.
Sinn Féin emerged as the main party in opposition, while both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have ruled out the possibility of forming a coalition with them.
The inaugural session of the new Dáil (the lower house of Parliament) is scheduled for December 18. However, it seems unlikely that the coalition talks will be completed by that time.
A government will be officially established once the Dáil votes to appoint a new Taoiseach (the Irish prime minister), but this isn't anticipated to happen before 2025.
You can catch the election results on BBC Two Northern Ireland at 6:00 PM GMT on Saturday, and again on BBC One Northern Ireland during Sunday Politics at 10:00 AM GMT.
The BBC News NI website will feature a live page providing the most recent updates throughout the weekend.
