Israel-Gaza briefing: World watches nervously to see what Iran does next
The Gaza crisis has various conflicts happening within it, but the most intense one is the open hostility between Israel and Iran.
Currently, it's in the utmost precarious stage.
This area, along with numerous major cities, is anxiously observing and anticipating Iran's next move.
After the attack on their diplomatic center in Damascus, Tehran must now take action. The bombing occurred on April 1st and resulted in the deaths of high-ranking members in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).
Israel never confesses to executing such strikes, but it is commonly acknowledged that they are responsible.
People are observing the vehicle that allegedly held the three sons of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, who were said to have perished in an air attack initiated by Israeli forces.
Since the beginning of the Israel-Gaza conflict six months ago, Israel has escalated its focus on Iran. This includes not only destroying weapons and infrastructure in Syria, but also targeting and killing high-ranking members of the IRGC and Hezbollah.
Iran's Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued a warning that those responsible for committing this crime and similar ones in the future will face regret, according to God's will.
When he made his promise, it led to Israel responding immediately in a situation where both countries have been engaged in a war of words for some time. Conflict between Iran and Israel began in 1979 when Iran's revolution made it a fundamental part of their belief system to be hostile towards the "Zionist regime." Israel has taken various actions, such as targeted killings and cyber operations, to combat Iran's attempts to become a nuclear power and support for groups, including Hamas, who wish to eradicate Israel.
The Israeli Foreign Minister, Israel Katz, made a statement on X (formerly known as Twitter), indicating that if Iran initiates an attack from their own territory, Israel will answer with an attack on Iran. It's worth noting that tagging the Supreme Leader in the post was an unconventional way of communicating between countries that lack diplomatic ties.
After that, the USA, which is known to be Israel's strongest supporter and Iran's greatest opponent, got involved and warned Iran that they could also experience the fury of the most influential military in the world. President Joe Biden declared that "we will protect Israel, and Iran will not achieve success," implying that US intelligence was detecting an imminent attack.
Soldiers from the Israeli military are positioned in close proximity to their tanks in a region that runs parallel to the boundary line dividing Israel from the Gaza Strip.
Dr. Sanam Vakil, an expert in the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, thinks that the United States may be attempting to pressure Iran into reassessing their choices.
The American media has been citing anonymous US sources and discussing the likelihood of Iran launching a serious attack on Israeli targets. This could involve the use of both drones and missiles, such as ballistic missiles. The situation is being seen as potentially very extreme.
Dr. Vakil suggests that the US is possibly increasing excitement through their communication tactics, making it evident that Iran is weak if they are unable to fulfill their promises. This creates an anxious and unpredictable situation.
Iran has always taken pride in their strategic patience and playing the long game, but now they find themselves at a crossroads where every decision poses a great deal of risk.
The senior leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is getting old, needs to approve a retaliatory response that satisfies the militant commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). These commanders are the ones who influence Iran's foreign policy. At the same time, he has to ensure that Iran's status as the main hub of the "Axis of Resistance" remains intact. This axis consists of Iran's allies and proxies, who have gained confidence and strength from their attacks, albeit limited but still deadly, during the Gaza conflict.
However, this decision must be made with caution to prevent a dangerous rise in tension. If Israel and the United States become involved, it could be disastrous for Iran.
On the occasion of Eid al-Fitr, Palestinian people gathered to attend prayers near the remains of the al-Farouk mosque situated in the Rafah area of southern Gaza Strip.
The Supreme Leader, who is currently not feeling well and is 84 years old, took over as the leader in 1989, just a year after the Iran-Iraq war ended. This war resulted in the deaths of up to 200,000 Iranians and is still remembered as a significant event in Iran's history.
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, an expert from Iran, mentions that it's crucial for the legacy of their country to steer clear from conflicts. It's likely that any form of counter-measure against Israel will be carried out with the objective of preventing a large-scale conflict.
However, this instance is unfamiliar ground.
Earlier this month, a very accurate missile attack destroyed the annex building of the consulate that was situated next to the Iranian embassy. The attack also resulted in the deaths of many IRGC officers, including Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi. He was the highest-ranking general in the region for the Quds Force, which is a top-secret division that is responsible for operations overseas.
It occurred on property owned by the Iranian diplomatic community, which Iran views as its own land.
During Eid al-Fitr, the Palestinians conducted their prayers near the remains of the al-Farouk mosque in Rafah.
Israel has been engaged in a prolonged conflict referred to as the "war between wars." This entails carrying out attacks on arms supplies, locations, and routes within Syria that are purportedly utilized by Iranian forces and allied groups, including their strongest proxy, Lebanon's Hezbollah militant group. Nonetheless, in the past few months, Israel has intensified its efforts, taking advantage of the high-stakes pressure of the Gaza war to carry out targeted killings.
Up until now, Iran's way of reacting has been primarily relying on its intermediaries to counter-attack. These undercover conflicts traverse from altercations near the southern border of Israel with southern Lebanon, which is a stronghold of the organization Hezbollah, to squads connected to Iran in Iraq and Syria that have attacked American objectives, and recently, Yemen's Houthi rebels have been targeting commerce routes in the Red Sea.
In the beginning of the year, there was a probability that Israel conducted an airstrike in Syria which killed IRGC military advisors. Iran responded by attacking "soft targets" which would not provoke a major response. They sent ballistic missiles to northern Iraq at a base where Mossad operates and launched missiles and drones at Baloch separatists across the border in Pakistan. Although both attacks caused anger and Pakistan retaliated with an airstrike, tensions eventually decreased.
During the commencement of the Eid al-Fitr event at a cemetery in Rafah, located in the southern Gaza Strip, a woman was shedding tears while standing at the grave of someone dear to her.
Amid the ongoing crisis, people in Iran and Israel are focusing on not only the dangerous retaliation between them but also on the crucial matter of deterrence. They both aim to make it crystal clear to one another that any significant attacks would come at a great cost and should be avoided in the future.
Iran is facing multiple challenges from the recent protests led by women to the financial crisis. Despite this, they prioritize the preservation of the Islamic Republic. Moreover, they desire to defend their expanding influence in the region, as well as the political and military connections that have been established over many years.
There are different choices for the retaliatory actions that can be taken against Israel. These options include direct attacks on Israeli military targets, more remote operations against Israeli embassies and interests around the world, or using their proxies to strike back. According to a report from Amwaj media, the Occupied Golan Heights in northern Israel is a likely target for them. This area was taken from Syria in the 1967 war and is considered a less risky option for an attack.
Individuals who are escaping from turmoil in the Nuseirat refugee camp located in the heart of Gaza are relocating with their possessions, as Palestinians transport their belongings.
Raz Zimmt, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security in Tel Aviv and an expert from Israel, has expressed his opinion that Iran will take strong actions. According to him, Iranians have lost their tolerance due to the setbacks that are being attributed to Israel. He shared his views on a platform called X.
Iran captured a merchant vessel connected to Israel in the early hours of last Saturday, however, Mr Zimmt stated that Tehran does not appear to view this as an acceptable retaliation. He also mentioned that this might give them a chance to think over their future plans.
However, there is no consensus among individuals closely monitoring Iran on what they will ultimately decide to do. Furthermore, there is a possibility that Iran's careful and deliberate approach may be perceived or result in a costly mistake.
According to Ali Vaez from the International Crisis Group, it seems Iran would rather react directly in any situation. Vaez does not believe Iran is willing to jeopardize their support for Hezbollah or get them involved in any conflict. Iran values Hezbollah as an essential part of their defense mechanism and desires to keep them safe.
Another possibility is to wait for a bit before taking action, so that the attack occurs when it's least anticipated instead of during the height of the controversy.
According to Dr. Vakil from Chatham House, it is expected that Iran will retaliate, but they have the option of not responding at all and not falling for what could be seen as an Israeli trap.
Youngsters are perched on a swing, rejoicing the start of the Islamic festival of Eid al-Fitr in the midst of the Gaza Strip.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has faced significant internal political challenges and consistently advocated for military intervention against Israel's main foe. It is widely acknowledged that he has been restrained from taking such action at least once.
Behind closed doors, there has been a lot of quick and urgent communication between the United States and Iran, carried out with the help of other countries in the Middle East. This is all in an effort to prevent a full-scale war that nobody desires. Iran views this as a way to improve its standing as a major player in the region.
During this period of caution, airlines have ceased operations, embassies have closed their doors, and advised citizens to vacate Israel. The United States has dispatched its war vessels to key locations to further secure the safety of American and Israeli soldiers. Additionally, they have bolstered their aerial defense to safeguard their stationed troops in Iraq and Syria.
Many nations in the Middle East, including Israel, are currently on high alert and monitoring the situation to anticipate any potential incidents.
