Iran crash: What next for Iran after President Ebrahim Raisi's death

Ebrahim Raisi was in a position of great power within the Islamic Republic and many believed he would become its leader.

An unexpected twist changed his situation entirely.

The passing of a helicopter accident on Sunday has thrown the rising conjecture about the successor to the 85-year-old Supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, into disarray. His well-being has been a subject of immense concern for a significant amount of time.

It is unlikely that the unfortunate outcome of Iran's strict president will have a significant impact on the course of Iranian policy or cause any major upheaval within the Islamic Republic.

However, this will examine a scenario in which conservative extremists currently hold control over all areas of authority, including those that are voted and appointed.

Dr. Sanam Vakil, the director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at the Chatham House think tank, notes that the system will go to great lengths to demonstrate its functionality and follow constitutional protocols during the spectacle of his passing, all while searching for a new candidate who can uphold conservative loyalty and unity to Khamenei.

Raisi's rivals will celebrate the departure of a previous prosecutor who was charged with a significant involvement in the extensive execution of political detainees in the 80s, a claim he refuted. They will be optimistic that his departure accelerates the demise of this current government.

The upcoming state funeral for Iran's ruling conservatives will be an event filled with emotion and a chance for them to communicate messages of continuity.

They are aware that the entire world is observing.

According to Professor Mohammed Marandi of Tehran University, Western accounts suggested that Iran would crumble and disintegrate for over four decades. This has been the prevailing narrative for some time.

"However, in some way or another, surprisingly, it has persevered and I anticipate that it will continue to do so in the future."

Another important role that needs to be fulfilled is the position held by this moderately powerful religious figure on the Assembly of Experts. This group has the authority to pick the future supreme leader during the much more significant transition.

According to Dr. Vakil, the selection process for the potential successor of the Iranian Supreme Leader was not very transparent. He points out that Raisi was considered a strong contender due to his youth, loyalty, strong ideological convictions, and popularity. This process also involves other potential candidates, such as the Supreme Leader's son, Mojtaba Khamenei.

Before the confirmation of Raisi's death, the Ayatollah posted on X, assuring the Iranian people that there will not be any interruptions to the country's affairs.

The pressing political hurdle at hand is to arrange for early elections for the president.

The authority has been passed on to Vice President Mohammad Mokhber. It is necessary to conduct fresh elections in a period of 50 days.

This request to the citizens will happen shortly after the parliamentary elections in March, where the level of participation was the lowest ever seen in this nation, that before used to take pride in its active and energetic involvement in this task.

In the past few elections, such as the 2021 election that resulted in Raisi being elected president, there has been a pattern of barring moderate and pro-reform competitors by the supervisory committee.

Mohammad Ali Shabani, who serves as the editor of the online news platform Amwaj.media based in London, has stated that by conducting presidential elections earlier than expected, the leaders of the state along with Khamenei will have the chance to alter the current course of events and grant voters an avenue to become involved in the political system once again.

"However, regrettably, we have not seen any signs that the government is prepared and eager to proceed with that action."

However, even among Raisi's supporters, there seems to be no clear replacement.

Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow at the Berlin-based think tank SWP, highlights that there are varying factions among the conservative group. These factions consist of individuals who are more dogmatic and those who are perceived to be more practical.

He thinks that this will increase the competition for power in the upcoming parliament and in various regions.

The individual who takes on Raisi's responsibilities will have a challenging task ahead of them, with little control over the situation.

The highest power to make decisions in the Islamic Republic is held by the Supreme Leader.

The responsibility of forming foreign policy, particularly within the area, lies with the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC), who have been gaining more and more influence.

Several months ago, during the Israel Gaza war, the president did not have control over the situation as Iran experienced severe tensions with its opponent, Israel.

The situation caused a hazardous retaliation and raised concerns in several cities, particularly Tehran, regarding the possibility of a more hazardous and escalating cycle.

While he was in charge of the regular operations, the people of Iran were having a hard time dealing with the worsening financial difficulties caused by devastating global sanctions and the mishandling and dishonest practices of officials.

The rate of inflation rose dramatically, surpassing 40%. Concurrently, the rial currency experienced a sharp decline in its worth.

During his tenure, a remarkable series of demonstrations engulfed the Islamic Republic due to the passing of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini who was arrested by Iran's morality police for supposedly breaching the nation's rigorous dressing laws. Her detainment caused uproar and protests throughout the country.

Before the recent protests, Raisi had implemented stricter guidelines for Iran's "hijab and chastity law," which required women to act and dress modestly, including covering their heads with a scarf.