Five Republican storylines to watch for at Iowa caucuses

Check out: It's cold in Iowa, but people are still really excited and the risks involved are significant.

The person responsible for covering news in North America is currently stationed in Des Moines, Iowa.

After an extensive campaign period, it's now time for Republican voters to vote for their party's nominee for the 2024 presidential elections in Iowa. The turnout is estimated to be a few hundred thousand in the Midwestern state.

In the past few months, the competition has narrowed down significantly, but there is one thing that hasn't changed. The ex-president Donald Trump still dominates the outlook of his party's future, regardless of the attempts made by his opponents.

This is the reason why a lot of attention has been given to snowfall and low temperatures instead of speculating who will win the Iowa caucuses.

However, there are still crucial plotlines that will unfold as the results of Monday night are revealed.

If the polling data is not grossly incorrect, Donald Trump is likely to emerge as the victorious candidate in the Iowa caucuses.

Republican voters in the state are greatly supporting him with enthusiasm, and his ground organization is highly advanced in comparison to the low-budget team that secured him a second-place finish following Texas Senator Ted Cruz in 2016.

The ex-president and his crew are not simply seeking a triumph in the state. They yearn for an enormous victory that will eliminate any uncertainty about Trump being named as the Republican candidate at the national convention occurring in July.

In case he triumphs with over 50% of the vote and achieves a significant lead in Iowa, it may impair the drive that Nikki Haley has for the upcoming state, New Hampshire, and bring irreparable damage to Ron DeSantis's candidacy.

It's unlikely that Iowa will determine the ultimate nominee with a knockout punch, as it has in the past only narrowed down the field. However, this year is not like any other because Mr. Trump is campaigning as if he is still the president, refusing to accept that he lost in 2020.

Highly Sought-after Second Spot

If Mr. Trump's strong position in the polls turns out to accurately depict the current mindset of Iowa's Republican voters, then the true competition within the state is for the runner-up spot.

The heated and intense debate last Wednesday between Florida's Governor Ron DeSantis and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley highlighted the great importance of this situation. If one of these two individuals manages to distinguish themselves in the final Iowa results, they could become the leading choice to challenge Mr. Trump in future contests.

The picture originates from the European Press Agency.

A voter in Iowa was seen crying as they listened to Haley's speech.

A tight race between candidates would not be beneficial and would only reinforce the strategy of dividing and conquering that aided Mr. Trump in securing the nomination four years ago. Such a strategy would make it easier for him to win this time.

While it's possible for a candidate to secure a solid second place in Iowa, there is no assurance that this accomplishment will lead to further victories and a chance to catch up to the ex-president. Nonetheless, having a small chance is still better than having no chance whatsoever.

Ms Haley and Mr DeSantis are currently competing for the second position, but it's important to note that their circumstances are not necessarily similar.

The upcoming state on the Republican schedule is New Hampshire, where Ms Haley has a better chance of success due to the support of its Governor. She is popular among the high number of voters who have completed college education and also those who don't have a strong political party affiliation. This makes New Hampshire a more promising location for her campaign.

New surveys indicate that she has narrowed the gap between herself and Mr. Trump to almost single digits, placing her far ahead of the governor of Florida.

In contrast, Mr. DeSantis hasn't been able to establish a strong relationship with the voters in New Hampshire. Thus, his campaign depends heavily on performing well in Iowa since he has put in a lot of effort in creating a strong grassroots movement there. He also received crucial endorsements from the governor of Iowa and influential figures in the state's evangelical community.

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If he makes a mistake even with these benefits, his candidacy might fail in New Hampshire. However, his staff is not acknowledging this possibility.

According to DeSantis campaign representative Andrew Romeo, their campaign is designed to last for a long time. They are anticipating a lengthy and challenging campaign and are hoping that Donald Trump is prepared for it.

Although the statement is harsh, it is improbable that Mr. DeSantis will have the finances and motivation to follow through with his words if he fails in Iowa.

Winter's X Factor

The Iowa caucus has consistently been a way to measure a candidate's ability to organize and their supporters' level of enthusiasm, given the lengthy time commitment needed from participants. With the added challenge of frigid temperatures and icy roads, it's highly probable that the candidate with the most committed supporters will come out as the winner of the caucus.

It's possible that the person referred to is Mr. Trump, whose dedicated supporters are willing to endure various types of weather and stand in long lines - some even overnight - just to attend his rallies.

Possibly, it could be Mr. DeSantis attempting to gain support from Iowa's evangelical voters, who historically have shown high levels of participation in the caucuses.

The blog section was sourced from Getty Images.

Standing in line in the snowy weather to attend a gathering featuring Donald Trump in Indianola, Iowa.

It is possible that Ms Haley will have an advantage because her followers who have received higher education often stay in the urban regions of Iowa. This could mean that the streets will be less icy and they will have closer access to the caucus sites. Individuals who strongly disapprove of Trump in the Republican party may also be more driven to endure the harsh weather conditions on Monday night. This could potentially cause a shift towards Ms Haley's favor as indicated by polls.

The state of Iowa is well acquainted with harsh winters, but the recent extremely cold conditions have added an element of uncertainty to what has been a generally stable lead-up to caucus night. For the past few days, weather forecasters have been just as highly valued as political analysts.

The DeSantis campaign wrote a message to their supporters and donors, which was obtained by CBS News. They stated that any pollster who claims to know the predicted voter turnout for Monday night considering the unusual weather conditions is not being honest.

All of the candidates, excluding Donald Trump, are entering Monday evening with the expectation that this statement will come to fruition.

Asa Hutchinson Still In The Race

Chris Christie, a previous Governor of New Jersey, has dropped out of the race. This means that the only two candidates who have enough backing to make any impact in Iowa are Vivek Ramaswamy and Asa Hutchinson.

It's difficult to envision achieving significant success in that state currently, or even in future states, but there's still a chance for a miraculous outcome. However, Monday night could be the wake-up call they need to face the harsh truth.