A crushing blow for Israel and a massive gamble by the ICC

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Israel has suffered a major blow, as the head prosecutor of the International Criminal Court has made a move to seek arrest warrants for Yoav Gallant and Benjamin Netanyahu.

It won't lessen the impact if the International Criminal Court (ICC) decides to request warrants against Hamas leaders and the Israeli Prime Minister and Defence Minister. Instead, it will likely make things worse as it implies that Israel is no better than a terrorist group, leading to more anger in Jerusalem.

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The consequences of the ICC's decision are massive. There are four pressing inquiries that need addressing. Firstly, what kind of impact will this have within Israel? Secondly, how will this affect the ongoing conflict in Gaza and the Middle East as a whole? Thirdly, has the ICC gone too far, risking its own standing? And finally, connected to this, how will the United States react to the suggested charges?

The ICC's actions have even caused outrage among the Israeli opposition. Yair Lapid, who is a centrist and has not joined Netanyahu's leadership coalition, criticized the court for displaying "total moral failure". It's not surprising that many politicians in Israel have defended the army's actions in Gaza and are uniting in support.

The recent decision by the ICC coincides with an increase in calls for Netanyahu's resignation. Benny Gantz, a prominent member of the Israeli war cabinet, announced that he would be leaving the government soon if Netanyahu did not come up with a new approach to handling the conflict in Gaza and its aftermath.

Gantz, who has not faced charges, has added to the widespread disapproval of the ICC among Israelis. However, a large number of Israelis will be unhappy to see that their nation is being isolated from the rest of the world. As Israel works to improve its global standing, replacing Netanyahu and electing a new leader might become a more appealing alternative in the future.

If Netanyahu were indicted by the ICC, it could seriously affect his ability to perform his responsibilities as a leader. He would likely face challenges when it comes to traveling abroad as he would run the risk of being arrested in the 124 countries that have consented to the Rome Statute, which is the treaty that established the ICC. Anyone from countries such as the United States, Russia and China are not included in this agreement.

Those who are hopeful for the future may believe that the actions taken by the ICC could lead to Israel realizing that their Gaza approach is not effective, as previously stated by Gantz. This realization may lead to future leaders taking the two-state solution with Palestine more seriously. It is now apparent to Israel that they must begin a new peace process and distance themselves from Netanyahu to regain international acceptance. Some in Israel, such as Netanyahu's supporters and far-right coalition partners, will argue against this move, claiming that it will threaten Israel's survival. However, the discussion surrounding this issue will broaden, at the very least.

It is crucial to consider how the US will handle this situation. President Joe Biden's initial reaction was to condemn the decision made by the ICC, referring to it as "outrageous," and expressing opposition to any suggestion that Israel and Hamas should be equated. The US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, criticized the ICC for rushing into action and accused them of not giving Israeli authorities the opportunity to collaborate. He also argued that the ICC lacks the jurisdiction necessary to prosecute Israel. America's intense pushback may exert pressure on the ICC judges, preventing them from approving indictments as requested by the prosecutor.

Although Biden's reaction appears to be a subdued and restricted disapproval, the attacks on the ICC from the American right and Donald Trump may be much more forceful. John Bolton, who is a lawyer and was previously Trump's national security advisor, has called for the imposition of sanctions on the ICC and its judges by the United States. This request is expected to be supported by both Congress and the Trump campaign.

Biden might be hesitant to impose sanctions. Although the US is not officially involved in the ICC, it asserts its support for maintaining a global system based on rules. The US has shown approval of the ICC's indictment of Putin. Additionally, Biden recognizes that numerous Democratic party members hold a strong stance against Israel's behavior in Gaza and have even proclaimed it to be genocidal. As a result, the president has an interest in avoiding taking sides, potentially crossing Congress if they push for legislation calling for ICC sanctions and forcing him to veto the bill.

The chance of US penalties targeting the ICC stresses that the suggested accusations against Netanyahu and Gallant are a significant move for the court. This could put the court's future at risk. Chief prosecutor Karim Khan might have believed he had no other choice. If the court wants to maintain its legitimacy worldwide, it must demonstrate that it takes action against war crimes, regardless of who carries them out and where they occur.

The ICC functions within a political environment and is facing complications. Despite indicting Putin, it is unlikely that he will face a trial. If Netanyahu can also avoid prosecution, it will make the court seem weak and unimportant.

The blog post has been modified to convey the ongoing situation.