Deadly Hezbollah pager explosions will cause immense embarrassment and sow chaos
It's truly reminiscent of a scene from a Hollywood thriller.
Simultaneously, the pagers of Hezbollah officials went off in a suburb of southern Beirut, leading to hundreds of injuries and significant humiliation.
While Israel has not officially taken responsibility, many will likely attribute the action to the Mossad, the country’s secretive intelligence service known for its clever and bold operations against adversaries.
From a technical perspective, the exact method of execution may remain a mystery. However, it’s possible that the process involved sending signals to overload the circuits, causing the batteries to overheat. This would essentially turn them into miniature explosives.
For the attackers to pull this off, they must have had knowledge of the specific brands and models of the pagers involved. If they were also able to synchronize the explosions on particular devices, they would likely need to be aware of the serial numbers too. This suggests that there has been another significant security lapse on Hezbollah's part.
Another possibility is that the pagers, which all seem to be from the same production run, might have been altered prior to being sent out.
It's reasonable to think that the individuals using pagers held relatively high positions in the organization. This is backed up by reports indicating that Iran's Ambassador to Lebanon was also hurt when his pager detonated.
Hezbollah has been careful about how it communicates, knowing that phone calls can be easily monitored and tracked. Using pagers might have been seen as a simpler method, making it more difficult for outsiders to intercept their messages.
Latest news: Eight individuals have lost their lives in a series of explosions linked to pagers, among whom are fighters from Hezbollah.
Israeli intelligence has consistently demonstrated its ability to penetrate Hezbollah, with a significant example being the assassination of high-ranking commander Fuad Shukr in late July.
This recent attack is likely to create significant anxiety within Hezbollah, potentially leading to disorder among their members, as their security has been severely jeopardized.
Several events have occurred lately that, when viewed collectively, seem significant to me.
To start, towards the end of last week, the Israel Defense Forces announced that they had successfully defeated Hamas's Rafah brigade in southern Gaza. This victory is regarded as the IDF's last significant military accomplishment in the region and gives Israel the opportunity to refocus its attention on Hezbollah and the ongoing tensions along the Israeli-Lebanese border, if it decides to do so.
Late last night, Israel's security cabinet officially included the return of northern evacuees among its key objectives in the conflict, alongside defeating Hamas and securing the release of hostages.
Meanwhile, there are speculations that Defense Minister Yoav Gallant might be dismissed by Benjamin Netanyahu and that Gideon Sa'ar, a former ally of Netanyahu who has become an opponent and holds a more aggressive stance on Hezbollah, could take his place.
Earlier today, Israel's Shin Bet intelligence agency announced that it had discovered a planned assassination by Hezbollah targeting a former high-ranking Israeli military officer. The attack was intended to be carried out using a remotely triggered anti-personnel mine.
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It's still unclear how all these events are related, but I believe there is some link, especially as Israel's attention shifts more towards the conflict in the north.
Following the events of October 7, Hezbollah joined forces with Hamas and engaged in the conflict in Gaza, pledging to launch attacks on Israel in support of their cause until a ceasefire could be reached. However, as the ceasefire remains elusive, Hezbollah now faces a challenging and, some might say, unwinnable predicament.
Israel is striking Hezbollah positions and fighters deep within Lebanon.
The Lebanese population, as well as Hezbollah, reportedly do not desire a full-scale war with Israel. However, Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has found himself in a tight spot with no obvious way out except through a humiliating retreat.
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It will be intriguing to see how Hezbollah reacts to the recent attacks on the pagers.
If over a thousand Lebanese people had been hurt in a traditional airstrike, the outcry of a looming war would be overwhelming. However, this incident, while extensive in its impact and destruction, doesn't meet the criteria for a conventional conflict, making the reaction uncertain.
