Bowen: Tactical triumph for Israel, but Hezbollah won't be deterred

Israel has achieved a major strategic victory in this operation—akin to the kind of incredible twist you'd find in an action-packed novel.

There's no doubt that this is a blow to Hezbollah, which will heighten their feelings of insecurity and negatively impact their morale.

Nevertheless, Israel may face a significant strategic drawback. Although this situation undermines the influential Lebanese militia and political group, it doesn't prevent them from continuing their activities.

This approach does not bring Israel any nearer to its goal of halting Hezbollah's assaults and enabling the over 60,000 Israelis living along the northern border—who have been away from their homes for almost a year—to finally go back.

The Israelis have deployed a significant and bold tactic that has proven to be highly effective for them.

However, according to Al Monitor, a reputable newsletter focused on the Middle East, they found it difficult to utilize it as they had intended.

According to the report, the initial strategy was for Israel to launch significant strikes while Hezbollah was still recovering from the previous blows. The recent attack on the pager was intended to be the first step in a larger escalation, possibly leading to a military offensive or even an invasion of southern Lebanon.

However, these reports indicate that Hezbollah was becoming wary, which prompted Israel to launch the attack sooner than planned. While Israel has demonstrated its ability to intercept Hezbollah's communications and assert its dominance, this assault doesn't move the region away from the brink of full-scale war; in fact, it brings it even closer to that reality.

Currently, the situation regarding reducing tensions in the Middle East relies heavily on developments in Gaza.

As long as this war persists—whether it involves clashes with Lebanon, assaults in the Red Sea by the Houthis, or rising tensions with Iraq—there’s no indication that the situation will calm down.

The US ambassador to Lebanon, Amos Hochstein, has been diligently engaging in discussions for several months, communicating with the Lebanese government and indirectly with Hezbollah and Israel in an effort to explore diplomatic avenues for easing tensions. It has been reported that the Israelis only informed the US about their plans at the very last minute, which could complicate Hochstein's attempts to mediate the situation.

American hopes for a near ceasefire in Gaza are once again hitting a wall made up of two seemingly insurmountable obstacles.

One of them is Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, who aims to ensure that Israel leaves the Gaza Strip for good. He also seeks a significant release of Palestinian prisoners in return for the remaining Israeli hostages held in Gaza.

Another key figure is Israel's Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who has maintained his belief that Israel is capable of achieving complete victory over Hamas.

In Israel, many believe that he gains from extending the conflict, even though families of hostages and their advocates are pushing for an agreement to bring their loved ones back.

The prime minister's far-right partners in his coalition have warned that they will topple the government if he strikes an agreement.

Israel and its partners argue that targeting its historical adversaries, such as Lebanese Hezbollah, is a completely justified measure of self-defense.

Once again, there are significant concerns regarding how the Israeli attack has resulted in injuries and fatalities among innocent civilians.

Security camera footage captured the moment a pager detonated in a busy marketplace while its owner was buying groceries. According to reports from Lebanon, a young girl tragically lost her life when her father's pager exploded.

Hezbollah will be shaken by the attack, but it will quickly regroup as an organization and seek alternative means of communication. Given Lebanon's small size, messages can be easily delivered in person.

There's no doubt that Hezbollah and its allies in Iran, especially after their ambassador to Beirut was injured in the attack, are feeling quite hurt right now.

However, the area is once more teetering on the edge of a full-scale conflict.

Eventually, if this keeps up, they’re bound to go over the edge.