Bowen: Tactical triumph for Israel, but Hezbollah won't be deterred

Israel has achieved a major tactical success in this operation—a remarkable accomplishment that you might come across in a gripping novel.

It's certainly a setback for Hezbollah, which will heighten their feelings of vulnerability and negatively impact their spirits.

Nonetheless, there is a significant strategic risk for Israel. Although this situation shames the influential Lebanese militia and political group, it does not discourage them.

Moreover, this approach does not bring Israel any nearer to its main goal of halting Hezbollah's assaults and enabling the over 60,000 Israelis living near the northern border, who have been away from their homes for almost a year, to go back home.

The Israelis have employed a significant and bold tool that clearly proves to be quite effective from their perspective.

However, reports from Al Monitor, a well-regarded newsletter focused on the Middle East, indicate that they couldn't utilize it as they had intended.

According to the original strategy, Israel intended to launch severe strikes while Hezbollah was still disoriented. Reports indicate that the pager attack was meant to be the starting point of a major escalation, possibly leading to a larger offensive or even an invasion of southern Lebanon.

However, these reports suggest that Hezbollah became increasingly wary, prompting Israel to initiate the attack sooner than planned. While the Israelis have demonstrated their ability to intercept Hezbollah's communications and even embarrass them, this assault doesn't bring the region any closer to avoiding a full-scale war. In fact, it seems to move the situation further in that direction.

Right now, any progress towards reducing tensions in the Middle East hinges on the situation in Gaza.

As the war persists, whether it involves hostilities with Lebanon, assaults in the Red Sea by Houthi forces, or heightened tensions with Iraq, there seems to be no end in sight to the escalating situation.

The American diplomat to Lebanon, Amos Hochstein, has been diligently engaged for several months. He has been conversing with Lebanese officials and indirectly reaching out to Hezbollah and the Israelis in hopes of finding a diplomatic solution to reduce tensions. However, it has been reported that the Israelis only informed the U.S. about their plans at the very last minute, which is likely to hinder Hochstein's efforts.

American hopes for a ceasefire in Gaza have once again collided with two stubborn obstacles.

One prominent figure is Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, who seeks a complete withdrawal of Israel from the Gaza Strip. He is also advocating for a significant release of Palestinian prisoners in return for the Israeli hostages still held in Gaza.

Another key figure is Israel's Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who continues to assert that Israel is capable of achieving a complete victory against Hamas.

In Israel, there's a general belief that he gains from extending the conflict, even though families of hostages and their advocates are urging for an agreement to bring their loved ones back.

The prime minister's ultranationalist partners in his coalition have warned that they will topple the government if he reaches an agreement.

Israel and its allies maintain that engaging in conflict with their long-standing adversaries, Lebanese Hezbollah, is a completely justifiable measure of self-defense.

Once again, there are significant concerns regarding how an Israeli strike has harmed and claimed the lives of innocent bystanders.

Surveillance video captured the moment a pager detonated in a busy market while its owner was out grocery shopping. According to reports from Lebanon, a young girl lost her life due to the explosion of her father's pager.

Hezbollah will be affected by the attack, but it will quickly regroup and establish new channels of communication. Given Lebanon's size, it's easy to convey messages in person.

There's no question that Hezbollah and its Iranian allies, especially after their ambassador to Beirut was injured in the assault, are likely feeling the sting of this setback right now.

However, the area has once more been brought to the edge of a full-scale conflict.

Before long, if this keeps up, they will end up going over the edge.