French parliamentary elections – what to look out for and when

People in mainland France are currently voting in the first round of parliamentary elections. The polling stations will be open until 8pm local time on Sunday.

The voting process to fill the 577 seats in France's national assembly involves two rounds. The composition of the new parliament will be determined after the second round of voting on July 7th.

The number of people voting in mainland France at 5pm CET was 59.39%, which was much higher compared to the 39.42% turnout at the same time during the 2022 parliamentary elections. Surveys indicate that this election might have the highest turnout in almost three decades. A polling company, Elabe, predicted that the final turnout could be as high as 69.5%.

Predictions made at 8pm CET will give an idea of how each party is doing nationally. It's important to remember that these estimates are not set in stone. While they can show the overall level of support for each party in France, they can't accurately predict the outcome of the 577 individual constituency votes, which will be influenced by local factors and the candidates themselves.

Surveys indicate that the far-right National Rally could significantly improve its national vote share in the upcoming election, going from 18% to around 35%. The left alliance is expected to receive about 27% of the vote, with Emmanuel Macron's centrists coming in at around 21%.

Election results will come in slowly as Sunday night goes on. Only a few candidates might be chosen in the initial vote. Whether or not a candidate wins in the first round depends on how many people actually vote. In order to secure a seat right away, a candidate needs to get over half of all the votes, as well as reach a quarter of all registered voters in that area. Having more people vote makes it simpler to hit that 25% mark.

The leader of the extreme right, Marine Le Pen, is aiming to win the election in her northern area in the initial round, and expects that a number of her current MPs will achieve the same. Meanwhile, the left is hopeful that they will have some MPs elected by Sunday night, especially in areas like Paris and the surrounding regions to the east and north.

Many districts will have a second round of voting on July 7th. The two candidates with the most votes will be part of the second round, along with any candidate who receives over 12.5% of the total registered voters in that district. If more people vote, it will be easier to meet the 12.5% threshold.

Many districts may have a situation where there are three or more candidates competing in a runoff election on July 7th. There may be discussions among the left, right, and center parties about whether one candidate should withdraw to avoid dividing the votes against the far right. Negotiations and strategic planning between some parties will start on Sunday evening.

The updated list of candidates who will compete in the second round runoff will be revealed on Tuesday night.