France in limbo

3 days ago

Emiliano Grossman explores Emmanuel Macron's choice to announce surprise parliamentary elections in France after the European Parliament elections. He believes that Macron's goals may not be achieved and that uncertainty is the primary result of this decision.

France - Figure 1 — Photo UK in a changing Europe

Shortly after the European Parliament elections in France, Emmanuel Macron surprised many by scheduling early legislative elections for June 30th and July 7th. This move sparked heated discussions and negotiations within the French political scene. Many doubt that this risky decision will be able to resolve the ongoing political turmoil in France.

It was predicted that Marine Le Pen's political party, Rassemblement National (RN, National Rally), would come out on top in the European elections in France. The initial results from the charts below confirmed this expectation.

Even though Macron's party Renaissance came in second place, it received less than half of the votes that the RN received. The alliance between the Socialist Party and Place Publique, led by Raphaël Glucksman, performed similarly to Renaissance.

Even though only 51.5% of eligible voters participated in the election, the outcome shouldn't be exaggerated. The results do follow the overall patterns seen since the 2017 election, which drastically changed the political landscape in France, as noted by Gougou and Persico. This transformation is still happening, and France is currently going through a time of increased unpredictability in its elections.

Macron's political party performed strongly in the 2017 legislative elections thanks to a decrease in conservative and far-left voter turnout, as well as support from his own loyal followers who wanted to ensure the president had a solid majority. Despite receiving 28% of the vote in the initial round, Macron's party ultimately secured 53% of the seats following the second round. However, the party was not able to replicate this success in 2022, only winning 38.5% of the seats in the end.

But that doesn't mean the government couldn't govern. In France, governments don't need to be officially sworn in with a vote of confidence. They just need to be able to pass a confidence vote when it's required.

The less powerful government faced frequent votes of confidence. Most of these votes were due to government proposals using article 49.3 of the constitution: a powerful tool for weak leaders where a bill is passed unless the government is voted out. Thanks to this process, Elisabeth Borne, Macron's Prime Minister until January 2024, was able to pass numerous bills. This included the contentious pension reform and a bill that restricted immigrant rights.

Why did Macron decide to hold early elections? One possible explanation given by his close group of advisors is the challenge of governing without strong support in Parliament. However, this reasoning is up for debate, considering his government was able to pass several important laws.

France - Figure 2 — Photo UK in a changing Europe

Another point to consider is the importance of acknowledging the message conveyed by voters in European elections. However, this point is not very convincing. In 2014, the current Socialists placed third with less than 14% of the vote, but there were no significant repercussions for the government as a result.

Another factor to consider is that Marine Le Pen is gaining credibility as a potential candidate for the 2027 presidential race. This early election could prompt her party to start taking on more responsibilities sooner. The longer they are in power, the more likely they are to experience voter fatigue, which could decrease their chances of winning in 2027.

Additionally, Macron may have anticipated that this move would increase his own supporters and pressure MPs from Les Républicains to openly show their backing for his administration. Although Les Républicains have not formally been aligned with the government majority, a significant number of pro-Macron MPs have roots in this party, and their support has been crucial in passing numerous significant reforms over the last couple of years.

Meanwhile, he likely wished that the left would struggle to coordinate due to its deep internal disagreements. The tight timeline, with only three weeks until the election and just one week to announce candidates, appeared to make it unlikely for rival parties to reach a compromise.

For whatever reasons, things turned out unexpectedly. The four main parties on the left quickly reached an agreement for the upcoming elections. Even though there are still some differences, the left-wing group could perform strongly in the elections. Additionally, Eric Ciotti, the leader of the right-wing Républicains party, announced an alliance with the RN on June 11th. This decision led to Ciotti being kicked out of the party, but it may also weaken the presidential camp since other important figures from the Républicains have chosen to support Ciotti.

Now, what happens next? Given the circumstances, it seems highly unlikely that either of Macron's preferred outcomes will come to fruition. A victory for the presidential camp, comprising his party and other center-right groups, appears nearly impossible as they are expected to suffer major losses. Furthermore, forming an alliance with the Républicains, who are struggling to stay afloat in the upcoming elections, also seems unattainable.

However, it seems unlikely that the RN will be able to secure the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority, despite some polls indicating they may get close.

Based on the data we have now, it is more probable that there will be a hung parliament in the upcoming election. The RN party might have the most seats, followed by a left-leaning bloc and a smaller center-right group. This would make it challenging for any Prime Minister to govern effectively, and confidence votes could be lost, leading to a high level of instability in the government. In this situation, a non-partisan "technical" government may be considered as a solution.

Jordan Bardella, the candidate from the RN party who is running for Prime Minister, has made it clear that his party will only agree to take on government duties if they win a majority of seats. This means Macron would need to find someone from the left alliance or a neutral public figure who is acceptable to both the presidential party and the left.

No matter what, taking this risky bet is not likely to greatly decrease Marine Le Pen's chances of winning in 2027, since it is unlikely that the RN will take on government duties after 7 July. Instead, it will only lead to more uncertainty and heightened tensions within French society.

Written by Emiliano Grossman, a professor who specializes in Political Science at Sciences Po.