What is an exit poll? Scientists reveal if the prediction tool is accurate - as voters cast their...

As people in the UK head to polling stations to vote in the 2024 General Election, the entire country will be anxiously waiting to see the outcome.

Although dedicated political enthusiasts may stay awake all night monitoring the election results, most people will get their first glimpse of the outcome from the exit poll at 10pm tonight.

The pre-election survey is carried out annually by a group of media companies to forecast the potential outcome of the vote.

In contrast to a typical survey where voters are asked about their election intentions, an exit poll asks individuals who they actually voted for as they leave the polling place.

Fortunately for people who go to bed early, most scientists agree that the exit poll is a fairly reliable indication of the actual vote.

Today, people all over the country will be standing in line outside voting locations. For those who are impatient and don't want to wait for the official results, the exit poll will be available at 10:00 PM.

The survey before the election is paid for by the BBC, Sky News, and ITV News and conducted by research company Ipsos.

This year, Ipsos will be dispatching surveyors to 133 voting centers all across the nation.

After leaving the polling station, voters are requested to complete a duplicate ballot in the same way they did before and insert it into the pollster's ballot box.

As reported by Ipsos, approximately 80% of the individuals approached during the 2019 General Election agreed to participate in the mock ballot paper, showing that there are still some who choose not to disclose their opinions.

In total, Ipsos plans to survey around 17,000 people nationwide in order to measure the shift in support among various political parties.

A recent survey asked voters, including Rishi Sunak seen here voting, about their choices in the election. This type of poll is not the same as a typical survey that only asks about people's plans.

After gathering the data, it is sent to a confidential location in London where experts work without being influenced by the media.

This is thought to produce a more precise forecast of the election outcome compared to polls taken before the election.

Michael Clemence, from Ipsos UK, explained to Sky News: 'We are studying people's actions rather than asking them about their voting intentions.'

We are speaking with voters who have recently cast their ballots, and I am inquiring about their actions in order to correct any inaccuracies in the polling predictions.

Before an election, the predictions made by surveys may not always be completely reliable. Factors such as the arrangement of candidates' names on the ballot can influence voters' choices while they are casting their votes.

Yet, when we inquire about someone's prior actions, we eliminate any potential prejudice the interviewer may have.

Furthermore, Dr. Hannah Bunting, co-leader of The Elections Centre at the University of Exeter, stated in a piece for The Conversation that exit polls address several of the challenges encountered in political polling.

Professionals believe that exit surveys give a good initial idea of how the election may go. This year, pollsters will survey around 17,000 voters, similar to what Kier Starmer, shown in the image, did when he voted.

Dr. Bunting suggests that they are stuck in a cycle of doing the same thing over and over instead of exploring new possibilities.

We have confirmation that they have voted, instead of having to guess if they will actually show up.

The information gathered from these interviews is then examined by a group of specialists in the city.

The exit poll method we use today was created in 2005 by John Curtice, who is a professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, and David Firth, who is a professor of statistics at the University of Warwick.

Professor Curtice has stated that he is aware of the exit poll result that will be released at 2pm on polling day, but he cannot disclose this information to anyone or he could face legal consequences.

Even though there are still millions of votes left to be cast by 2pm, it is believed that this time may be sufficient to determine the outcomes of important electoral races.

Exit polls show what has already taken place, so they are less likely to be influenced by bias or uncertainty from voters.

Because pollsters only speak with people in a few areas, they must analyze trends and patterns to forecast how other parts of the country will vote.

Ipsos surveys people in different cities and countryside to study changes in voting patterns.

Close attention is paid to marginal seats to forecast significant shifts in elections.

Each year, certain regions are focused on in order to gather information from past election polls and constituency data. This helps create a better understanding of voter behavior overall.

Professor William Jennings, a polling expert from the University of Southampton and member of this year's exit poll team, explained to Sky News that their goal is to analyze the data for any trends in order to provide accurate estimates. This will help ensure the reliability and credibility of their findings.

We will analyze the shift in voting trends at each polling station, searching for trends and unique characteristics in regions that could help us predict changes across the country.

The experts, who are currently confined in a secure underground location with no connection to the outside world, will examine factors like whether the area supported Brexit or the percentage of residents who have a vehicle.

Since 2005, when this way of predicting election results was created, it has only been off by a small number of seats each year.

Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, a top expert in statistics at the University of Cambridge, explained to MailOnline that the small amount of data available gives us an idea of how likely various groups of people are to switch their vote. This is the main concept behind an exit poll.

By taking into account the likelihood of certain changes in votes and understanding how votes were distributed in the previous election, we can make educated guesses about how votes will be allocated in the upcoming election.

Furthermore, ever since this particular model was unveiled in 2005, it has proven to be remarkably effective in forecasting election outcomes with a high level of precision, typically within a margin of just a few seats.

In the most recent election in 2019, the poll results were off by only three seats for the Conservatives. The prediction was for 368 seats, but the actual outcome was 365 seats.

The survey also miscalculated the achievements of the SNP and Liberal Democrats, which led to a minor underestimation of the number of seats Labour would ultimately win.

During 2017, the exit poll was nearly accurate for both the Conservatives and Labour, missing by just one seat.

Actually, the most recent time an exit poll had a major error was in 1992, prior to when media outlets started collaborating to create one unified exit poll.

During that particular year, the exit polls wrongly forecasted a hung parliament, but in reality, John Major's Conservative party ended up with a majority of 21 seats.

Even with the changes to the electoral boundaries, the exit poll should give us a pretty good idea of which party will win the next election and lead the government.

However, there are some circumstances that may affect the accuracy of this year's exit poll more than in previous years.

According to Dr. Bunting, there have been changes to constituency boundaries since the previous election, with new constituencies being formed.

This could potentially pose a challenge for analysts who rely on past election information.

Furthermore, the potential magnitude of this year's fluctuation may create some degree of unpredictability in specific regions.

Professor Spiegelhalter also mentions that the growing presence of Reform UK makes things more complicated, but it doesn't question the fundamental approach.

Nonetheless, professionals are in consensus that the upcoming exit poll for this year is expected to reflect the overall outcome of the election.

Professor Spiegelhalter stated that while he does not view the exit poll results as definitive, he will still regard them with great concern.

Even though the official results won't be announced until tomorrow morning, we should have a good understanding of the next government by 10pm tonight.