Everton vs Fulham: Opposition Analysis | Are the Cottagers Our Bogey Team?

Everton broke a frustrating ten-month streak without an away win last weekend by comfortably defeating newly-promoted Ipswich Town. Interestingly, their last away victory also came against another newly promoted team, Burnley, where Sean Dyche's former side was managed by Vincent Kompany at that time.

The Toffees are on a positive streak, having gone four league matches without losing, which has helped stabilize things after a difficult beginning to the season. They are eager to keep this momentum going in the late afternoon match against Fulham at Goodison Park.

Former Everton manager Marco Silva led Fulham to a 13th-place finish last season, which was a small decline from their 10th position the year before. This drop can be partly explained by a tumultuous summer for the club, during which they lost key player Aleksandar Mitrovic, and at one point, Silver himself looked like he might leave too.

Last summer was noticeably more stable, and Fulham supported their coach in the transfer market, spending a net total of €22.8 million. They made several changes to their squad, letting go of regular players like Willian, Tim Ream, Tosin Adarabioyo, and Bobby De Cordova-Reid, who all left on free transfers. However, they also brought in considerable money through key player sales, with defensive midfielder João Palhinha moving to Bayern Munich for €51 million, and young forward Jay Stansfield being sold to Birmingham City for €21.8 million.

West London has welcomed six new additions to the squad, but Silva has been cautious about making too many changes to the core team, gradually incorporating the newcomers. So far, only attacking midfielder Emile Smith-Rowe from Arsenal, who cost €31.8 million, and central defender Joachim Andersen from Crystal Palace, valued at €29.5 million, have made it into the starting team. Meanwhile, midfielder Sander Berge, acquired from Burnley for €23.6 million, and Reiss Nelson, on loan from Arsenal, have primarily been playing from the bench.

Fulham started the new season with a late loss to Manchester United but bounced back with a win against Leicester City. However, they couldn't maintain the momentum as they drew with another newly promoted team, Ipswich. They played well against West Ham United but were unable to convert their performance into a win. They then secured two solid victories, first at home against Newcastle United and then away at Nottingham Forest. Now, they come to Goodison Park on the back of two defeats: a thrilling 3-2 loss to Manchester City at the Etihad and a setback against Aston Villa last weekend, where they lost after Andersen received a red card shortly after the hour mark.

They are in tenth place on the table as they head into the weekend's matches, three points clear of Everton.

Silva is dedicated to his playing style and has opted once again for the 4-2-3-1 formation that he preferred last season. Although he utilized a similar 4-3-3 against the Tractor Boys and shifted to a 5-4-1 formation during the recent match against City, it is likely that he will stick to his favored setup for tonight's game.

His strategy remains fairly consistent since his time at Liverpool, focusing on attacking play and constructing moves through short passes. However, he did learn some tough lessons during his challenging period at Everton, and his Fulham team is now more difficult to compete against compared to how the Blues were back then.

They sit right in the middle of the league in terms of possession (49.3%) and pass accuracy (84.5%). Only 9.9% of their passes are long, but Fulham tends to rely heavily on crossing, attempting an average of 22 per game, which places them third in the league. The Cottagers maintain a well-rounded offensive approach, while Everton tends to focus more on their right flank. They average 14.4 shots every 90 minutes, but their expected goals (xG) stands at 12.6, which is higher than the actual number of goals they’ve scored (eleven). All their goals have come from open play, except for one that was scored from a penalty.

On the defensive side, today's team has been fairly strong, allowing an average of just 13.4 shots on goal per 90 minutes, placing them ninth in their league. They've given up eleven goals, even though their Expected Goals Allowed (xGA) stands at 9.8, indicating they're slightly underachieving offensively and defensively. One area where they could struggle today is defending against set-pieces, as they've conceded four goals from dead-ball situations.

Bernd Leno is a skilled goalkeeper who has shown himself to be a smart acquisition and is among several former Arsenal players now at the club. Currently, however, he is not performing at his best, having conceded eleven goals despite a Post-Shot Expected Goals (PSxG) of only 8.6, indicating that he isn't living up to expectations. In the last year, his ability to stop shots ranks in the lowest 18th percentile compared to players in the top European leagues.

Raul Jimenez is experiencing a revival in his career as he enters the later stages. The 33-year-old netted two goals against Luton Town to wrap up the previous season and has already added four more to his tally this season. A few years ago, he showcased his skills as a well-rounded striker, known for his physicality, clever positioning, precise finishing, and good speed. Now, he seems to have returned to that form.

Another former Wolves player excelling is Adama Traore. The strong and speedy right winger averages 5.8 dribbles per game, achieving a success rate of 52.5%, and he drives the ball into the opponent's box 2.17 times each 90 minutes.

The visitors bring some creativity to the field with ex-Blue Alex Iwobi and former Manchester United player Andreas Pereira. Iwobi is averaging 4.00 shot-creating actions (SCA) per 90 minutes in open play, which is the highest in his team. Meanwhile, Pereira tops the squad with an impressive 6.05 SCAs, with over half of those coming from set-piece situations.

The absence of Andersen due to his suspension, after he was shown a straight red card at the Etihad, will be a significant blow for the visitors today. As the team's strongest aerial defender, he would have been key in matching up against Everton's powerful striker, Dominic Calvert-Lewin. His presence would also have added strength to the team’s defense during corners and free kicks, an area where they have struggled all season.

It's obvious that the hosts should focus on this vulnerability, especially with Andersen not playing. To achieve this, the Blues need to push forward more than they did against Newcastle in their last home game, where they didn't earn a single corner. I anticipate that Everton will aim to bring players into the Fulham penalty area during open play as well, creating options for crossing chances.

Regarding the probable starting lineup for the home team, Dyche will likely aim for consistency when he can. I expect the only alterations to be in the center-back position, with Jarrad Branthwaite coming in for Michael Keane. There might also be a change at right back. Ashley Young has impressively played in both full-back roles lately, but with Seamus Coleman and Nathan Patterson available, it's uncertain whom the manager will choose. That said, I doubt the Scot will be favored over either of the experienced players.

Fulham is a solid team in the Premier League and has managed to defeat Everton every time they’ve played at Goodison Park since Silva took over. Dyche has yet to secure a victory against the London club since he joined the team in Merseyside, and he will be eager to break that streak while also gaining some momentum as they approach a tough December. Everton definitely has what it takes to avoid losing, but they should be striving for more than just a draw when facing this caliber of opponent at home.

Forecast: Everton will draw with Fulham, finishing at 1-1.

Data sourced from fbref.com, transfermarkt.com, and whoscored.com.