Man City vs Everton Prediction

Can Pep Guardiola's current Premier League champions turn their fortunes around? In this article, we provide an analysis and forecast for the upcoming match between Man City and Everton on Thursday.

Key Insights From Man City Vs Everton Stats

Manchester City faced another setback in what has been a challenging season during their last match against Aston Villa. However, Pep Guardiola will be eager for his team to recover with a strong performance at home against Everton on Thursday.

Sean Dyche's team heads to the Etihad Stadium after earning two commendable scoreless draws against Premier League title contenders Arsenal and Chelsea.

The situation is quite different for the home team, City, who have not won in their last three league matches. They faced consecutive 2-1 defeats against Manchester United and Villa. Although Phil Foden scored a late goal at Villa Park, it was too late to change the outcome since Jhon Durán and Morgan Rogers had already scored for the opposing team.

That loss pushed City down to seventh place in the standings, leaving them four points away from the top four and a significant 12 points behind the leaders, Liverpool.

Looking back, the team that has won four consecutive titles has only managed to win three out of their last 12 games in all competitions, which has left Guardiola on the lookout for quick solutions. They've also suffered defeats in two of their last three home matches in the Premier League, achieving just one win during that span—equal to the number of losses they had in their previous 57 league games at the Etihad Stadium.

Another potential solution might come from Erling Haaland, who hasn't found the back of the net in his last three league matches at the Etihad. However, he has never gone four straight games at home without scoring.

The Norwegian forward is looking to make up for his past difficulties in this match, as he has found the net in all three of his prior Premier League games against Everton. Overall, he has scored four goals against the Toffees in the top division, including two in this matchup last season.

Ilkay Gündogan played a key role in all three of Manchester City's goals during their final Premier League match against Everton, where they secured a 3-0 victory in May 2023. He scored two goals and provided an assist in that game. While he might not begin this match in the starting lineup, he'll likely be needed at some stage, especially given Guardiola's injury challenges.

Ederson, Nathan Ake, Rúben Dias, John Stones, Matheus Nunes, Oscar Bobb, and Rodri will all miss the game on Thursday.

Manchester City aims to maintain their strong performance on Boxing Day, as they have won their last seven home league matches on December 26. They remain unbeaten in their last nine games on this day, with their only defeat being a 1-0 loss to Port Vale in the second division back in 1996. Additionally, they have only lost their last home league match of the year once in the past 17 years (with 13 wins and 3 draws), and that single defeat occurred in 2018 against Crystal Palace, where they fell 3-2.

Everton managed to secure a hard-fought draw against Chelsea at Goodison Park, extending their unbeaten streak to three matches. This result allowed them to rise to 15th place in the league, putting them four points above the relegation zone and with a match in reserve.

Nonetheless, Everton has managed to secure only one victory in their last 19 away games in the Premier League, with 7 draws and 11 losses. They have not found the back of the net in their last four matches on the road.

Enhancing that record is crucial for Everton's future, but a turnaround might not happen this Thursday. Dyche has faced Manchester City in his last 11 Premier League matches and lost every single one, with his teams managing to score only two goals while conceding 34.

Dyche is optimistic about having Armando Broja and Dwight McNeil back for the match at the Etihad, but unfortunately, James Garner and Tim Iroegbunam will still be unavailable for the visitors.

Man City Vs Everton: Head-to-Head Matchup

Manchester City hasn't lost to Everton in their last 14 encounters in the Premier League, winning 12 and drawing 2. Their last defeat against Everton was a 4-0 loss at Goodison Park in January 2017.

The home team has not lost to Everton in their last 13 league matches played at their stadium, winning 8 and drawing 5. Their last losses to Everton occurred during a streak of four consecutive defeats from February 2008 to December 2010.

Haaland netted two goals in the second half to lead City to a 2-0 victory in this match last season, after they had previously won 3-1 against Guardiola's team at Goodison in December 2023.

There could still be some optimism for Dyche. Everton has triumphed in five out of their last six league matches against Man City on Boxing Day, with one loss. This includes their last encounter on this date in 2004, where they won 2-1.

Man City Vs Everton: Match Prediction

The Opta supercomputer found it hard to predict anything but a victory for Guardiola's team on Thursday, as Manchester City emerged victorious in 73.7% of 10,000 simulated matches conducted before the game.

Everton had only an 11.0% likelihood of achieving a rare victory on the road, while the probability of a draw was estimated at 15.3% according to the same data-driven simulations.

According to Opta's predictions for the end of the season, City's chances of claiming the title have fallen to a mere 0.6%, with the most probable outcome being a fourth-place finish at 43.9%. On the other hand, Everton faces a 7.8% chance of being relegated.

The Opta Power Rankings provide a worldwide ranking system for football teams. They evaluate more than 13,000 domestic clubs and assign each one a performance score ranging from zero to 100. In this system, a score of zero represents the lowest-ranked team globally, while a score of 100 signifies the top team in the world.

Before the match starts on Thursday, here are the Opta Power Rankings for each team.

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