Fox News defies the odds in a US election many voters tuned out of

The morning prior to the 2024 US presidential election, Lachlan Murdoch, the CEO of Fox, appeared notably upbeat during a conference call with Wall Street analysts.

Referring to it as a "record" quarter for Fox's political earnings, Murdoch elaborated on how profitable this election season has been for his family's company. "I apologize to anyone who was trying to enjoy their football over the weekend and was hit with a flood of political advertisements," he quipped from the company's headquarters in New York, where he'll be following the election results.

Murdoch has good reasons to feel optimistic.

In recent years, Fox News has faced a barrage of challenges: there have been demands from irate Donald Trump supporters for the network to show more loyalty, massive lawsuits linked to its dissemination of false information during elections, the departure of its top personality, Tucker Carlson, and the ongoing decline of cable television. Despite these obstacles, Fox News has managed to come out resilient.

"Throughout this election season, Americans have relied on Fox News more than any other outlet," Murdoch stated on Monday, sharing statistics to highlight the continued supremacy of the cable network established by his father in 1996.

In the latest quarter, Fox News claimed the title of the top cable channel in the US and was the second most viewed network across all of American television, coming in just behind NBC, which broadcasted the Paris Olympics. During the three months leading up to the end of September, profits for its parent company surged, doubling in size. Additionally, Fox's stock has soared by nearly 50% this year, bringing the company's total worth to over $18 billion.

Fox's achievements stand in stark contrast to the overall media landscape, which is currently facing instability.

In 2016, the “Trump bump” led to unprecedented viewership for news outlets. In contrast, the effects of the 2024 election have been less consistent. Certain media organizations, like Fox and The New York Times, have managed to thrive. Meanwhile, other traditional media companies are encountering more challenging circumstances.

Last week, Comcast, the owner of MSNBC—a cable channel known for its liberal bias and its stance as a key opponent of Trump—classified the network as one of its “more mature businesses” that could potentially be turned into an independent company.

The readership of The Washington Post has decreased since its peak in 2016. Recently, the publication is said to have lost over 250,000 subscribers, which represents roughly 10 percent of its total audience, following owner Jeff Bezos's decision to cancel the paper’s intended support for Kamala Harris. The Los Angeles Times experienced a similar negative response from readers when its billionaire owner, Patrick Soon-Shiong, made a comparable choice.

Marc Benioff, the billionaire creator of Salesforce, is said to be negotiating the sale of Time magazine to a Greek media company led by an heir to a shipping fortune, potentially at a loss of $40 million.

Harris's sudden rise as the Democratic candidate certainly sparked excitement surrounding the election, but recent research shows that many Americans are feeling overwhelmed by the news. People are now spread out over numerous platforms, with traditional media battling against TikTok and podcasters for their focus.

Trump has persistently portrayed the media as his adversary. During a rally on Sunday, he remarked that he wouldn't be bothered if an would-be assassin had to "shoot through" the area where the press is located to get to him.

"The traditional news landscape is breaking apart and this trend isn’t going to reverse. This suggests that no single person, group, or perspective will hold a dominant position again," remarked Andrew Heyward, the former president of CBS News. "In the past, Walter Cronkite was considered the most reliable figure in America; we are unlikely to see a similar trusted figure in the media emerge again."

This upcoming US election is anticipated to be the costliest ever, with the campaigns of Harris and Trump reportedly spending around $2 billion on advertising, based on the Financial Times' advertising tracker. A significant portion of this funding supports local television stations, which are freely accessible to viewers. Murdoch referred to these stations on Monday as the "heroes of our election" in terms of generating revenue.

In the realm of paid television, where Fox News is situated, a significant shift away from cable reached a crucial moment this year. In August, Warner Bros Discovery and Paramount, two of the biggest television firms in the United States, realized that the value of their cable channels was $15 billion lower than they had previously estimated. According to LightShed analyst Rich Greenfield, these cable channels have turned into "weights that drag down" media companies.

"The shift in audience behavior has been truly remarkable and cannot be overstated. In just the last eight years, we've seen an extraordinary transformation," remarked Jonathan Klein, who served as president of CNN from 2004 to 2010.

Fox's ability to bounce back remains strong, even after upsetting some of its main Republican audience in 2020. This happened when it was the first news outlet to announce Arizona as a win for Trump’s opponent, Joe Biden.

The negative response concerned senior Fox leaders, as indicated in documents submitted last year during a defamation case by the voting tech firm Dominion against Fox. Just one day after the election, Fox News CEO Suzanne Scott messaged Murdoch saying, “The Arizona call was harmful, but we will showcase our top personalities and signal to our audience that we are listening to and valuing their thoughts,” according to the documents. Fox ended up paying close to $800 million to resolve the Dominion lawsuit.

Fox reaffirmed its decision regarding the Arizona call, and Arnon Mishkin, who heads the team responsible for making election projections, mentioned to the Financial Times that he didn't sense that the recent controversy had added any additional pressure on him this time.

This unique US election cycle has seen just a single debate between Harris and Trump, broadcasted on Disney’s ABC. However, Fox News managed to conduct interviews with both candidates as well as their vice-presidential picks, Tim Walz and JD Vance.

Fox's interview with Harris, highlighted by Murdoch on Monday, attracted 7.8 million viewers. This figure is greater than her interviews on other channels, but it falls short of the 8.5 million who watched Biden's interview on ABC in July.

Heyward noted that Fox’s strong and distinct identity has allowed it to stand out against larger industry trends. “Fox offers a clear value and appeals to an older demographic. This makes it well-equipped to maintain its success.”

Analysts at MoffettNathanson stated on Monday: "Although most of Fox operates in the declining realm of traditional television, its concentrated emphasis on sports and news allows it to remain in areas that are stable and even seeing some growth."

According to estimates from S&P Global Market Intelligence, Fox News is projected to generate $3.1 billion in operating revenue this year. This represents an increase from $2.5 billion in 2016, though it falls short of the peak $3.3 billion it achieved in 2022.

This year's presidential race hasn't attracted the same level of viewership for Fox as it did in 2020, when the news was dominated by the coronavirus pandemic.

In October, Fox attracted an average of 2.8 million viewers in the prime time slot from 8 PM to 11 PM. This is a significant drop from 4.9 million viewers in the same month in 2020 and 3.1 million in 2016.

In October, MSNBC averaged 1.4 million viewers during primetime, a drop from 2.7 million in 2020. Similarly, CNN saw its viewership fall to 830,000, down significantly from 2.4 million two years ago.

The industry is currently grappling with the possibility that its surge following the elections might fade once the media attention diminishes. “I believe things will quickly return to normal,” Heyward anticipated.

On Monday, Murdoch appeared unfazed.

"What's in store for tomorrow? I'm not sure," he admitted. Nevertheless, he went on to say, "I believe it won't affect us... in the markets we're operating in, we're experiencing significant growth and vitality."