Double tops: Lukes lead way but world darts championship field is wide open

It was the seventh set, and Luke Littler found himself at 58 points with two darts remaining, mistakenly believing he was at 68. He aimed for treble-18 and hit it, only to suddenly realize his error. He took a moment to collect himself, but when he returned to the game, he missed the double two that could have given him a 5-2 lead in the world championship final. After that, he lost the next five sets consecutively. In his quieter moments, Littler occasionally replays this match, but he usually switches it off at this crucial moment.

You could argue that the double two is the most well-known missed dart in the entire sport. Alternatively, Michael van Gerwen’s missed double-12 after 17 consecutive perfect darts in the 2014 semi-final could take that title. The reality is that in this sport, the stakes can drop dramatically in an instant. In his first year as a professional, Littler has likely thrown around 30,000 darts in competition, with most of them fading from memory right away. However, there are a few that stick with you.

The incredible journey of the 16-year-old sensation stole the spotlight at last season's world championships, emerging as one of sports' most remarkable underdog stories. As Littler skillfully navigated a favorable draw, excitement and anticipation began to build around him, elevating his performance to extraordinary levels of darting talent. There were exaggerated tales, late-night snacks, catchy songs, viral memes, exclusive selfies, and groggy appearances on morning shows. Darts became trendy and captivating. It was the headline story. However, due to that missed double two, the narrative still feels unfinished.

If you’re someone who only checks in on this sport once a year, you're likely to have missed a lot. However, the overall landscape of the sport, the general atmosphere, and the current vibe are pretty much the same as they were on the night of January 3rd. At the forefront, there are two Lukes in the lead, followed by a noticeable gap before the rest of the competitors.

This alone doesn't ensure victory, especially considering the significant changes that have characterized the sport over the last five years. For example, in the 2010s, there were 11 players who won their first major titles, with no new winners from 2012 to 2017. However, this decade is different, as we’ve already seen 15 first-time winners, even though we’re not yet halfway through. The number of potential champions is greater than ever before. This highlights the tough challenge that Littler and Humphries face this year in order to distinguish themselves from the rest.

Humphries has built on his impressive achievements from last season by adding the World Matchplay and Players Championship Finals to his list of victories, successfully defending his title for the first time. He even came close to winning the UK Open, narrowly missing match darts against Dimitri Van den Bergh. Remarkably, even if he were to lose every match until next summer, he would still hold the number one position in the world rankings. Just as importantly, he has proven to be an outstanding ambassador for darts, showing kindness to his competitors, being open about his own shortcomings, and demonstrating a passionate desire to win without boasting about it. Meanwhile, the exceptional Littler, now 17 years old, secured the Premier League title in May, where he notably achieved a nine-darter against Humphries in the final. He followed that up with impressive wins in the World Series of Darts finals and the Grand Slam. Additionally, he clinched his first titles across the Pro Tour, European Tour, and World Series. No player ranked in the world’s top 50 can claim a winning record against him. “He’s playing at his absolute best,” remarks Humphries. “But that doesn’t mean he wins everything.”

Another significant theme of the incredibly entertaining year of 2024 has been the sheer unpredictability of the sport. Aside from Littler and Humphries, everything has been a bit chaotic. The reputations of some players have lost their value. Gerwyn Price failed to make it past the last 16 in any major tournament and hinted at possibly leaving the sport. Similarly, both Van Gerwen and Peter Wright finished the year with only one Euro Tour title each. Michael Smith had a terrible season and risks falling out of the world’s top 16. Together, these four players captured 59% of all major titles between 2014 and 2023, so it's too early to count them out. However, it seems their dominant era has come to an end.

At the same time, fresh faces joined the ranks of the champions. The fan-favorite Stephen Bunting achieved his first significant victory at the Masters. Belgian powerhouse Mike De Decker took home the title at the World Grand Prix. Ritchie Edhouse started the year as the friendly world No. 58, recognized mainly for wearing a compression sleeve on his throwing arm. He wrapped up the year on a high note as a major winner, following an unexpected victory in a chaotic European Championship.

This brings up an intriguing question: who would you say is currently the third-best player in the world? Littler believes it's De Decker, while Humphries thinks it's van Gerwen. You could also argue strongly for Gary Anderson, who has been putting up impressive numbers on the tour this year and gave Littler a tough challenge in a memorable semi-final at this year's Grand Slam. This discussion is especially relevant now, as Humphries and Littler are set to face off in the semi-finals, influenced by the unpredictable nature of rankings and tournament draws.

Smith is the second seed, but many betting sites don’t even consider him the favorite to advance from the third section of the draw. Instead, the popular pick is the 24-year-old Dutch player Wessel Nijman, who has had an impressive year on the Pro Tour following a 30-month suspension for match-fixing. Nijman clearly has a lot of skill, but his performances on the big stage so far haven't fully lived up to the expectations surrounding him. Additionally, this section also features players like Price, Chris Dobey, Josh Rock, and Jonny Clayton, all of whom could pose a threat.

The lower quarter appears to be the most wide open. Van Gerwen and Anderson have the potential to face off in an exciting round of 16 match, but keep an eye on Martin Schindler, who has won twice on the Euro Tour this year. Van den Bergh is another player who has the ability to catch fire and go on a winning run, while Dave Chisnall would be a crowd favorite if he were to finally secure his first major title after suffering defeat in six finals.

De Decker and Bunting appear to be the biggest challenges for Humphries in a competitive upper bracket that features Wright, Damon Heta, and the reinvigorated Dirk van Duijvenbode. On his path to the semi-finals, Littler will likely face Edhouse, Danny Noppert, and Rob Cross, any of whom could potentially cause an upset. However, in a lengthy set-play format, if Littler can perform anywhere near his best, it's difficult to picture him being defeated.

On paper, Littler seems unbeatable for the next couple of decades. However, this isn't just a competition involving machines; it's about people, who are imperfect. A few weeks back, during the launch event for the 2025 world championship, I asked Littler if he still reflected on the double two from last year’s final. He let out a deep sigh and eventually responded, “Is there really a reason to?”

It’s possible that last year’s loss was simply a bump in the road, a delay before what’s bound to happen. Perhaps Humphries is like Dennis Priestley from his time, making one last stand against rising challenges. Littler might secure five world titles, or he could achieve 10, or even reach 20. However, the first title is always the toughest to claim.