Chelsea vs Aston Villa Prediction
As we prepare for the Premier League match on Sunday at Stamford Bridge, we're sharing our thoughts and predictions for the game between Chelsea and Aston Villa. Could the Blues be seen as potential title challengers?
Chelsea Vs Aston Villa: Key Takeaways
Despite the offseason discussions about a crowded roster and the turmoil within Chelsea's management, Enzo Maresca has had an impressive beginning as the team's coach.
As Matchday 13 approaches, Chelsea holds the third position in the Premier League, edging ahead of Arsenal thanks to a better goal difference. They have experienced only two losses in the league this season.
On Thursday, their backup players moved them closer to advancing in the UEFA Conference League by securing a 2-0 victory over Heidenheim. Maresca has taken advantage of this tournament to provide opportunities for squad members who don't usually play, while allowing key players like Cole Palmer to take a break.
Chelsea has struggled when up against other teams in the "big six." They suffered defeats against Manchester City and Liverpool, and ended matches in ties with Manchester United and Arsenal.
Aston Villa may not be part of the conventional ‘big six’ clubs, yet they secured a spot in the top four last season. On Wednesday, they managed to hold the renowned European club Juventus to a scoreless draw in the Champions League. Their hopes for a late victory were dashed when Morgan Rogers had a goal ruled out due to a foul on the goalkeeper committed by Diego Carlos.
Unai Emery's squad hasn't managed to secure a victory in their last four Premier League matches, with two draws and two losses. Their previous stretch of five winless games occurred from May to August 2022, and they also experienced a similar spell earlier that season between March and April 2022, both times under the management of Steven Gerrard. Despite this poor form, they have slipped to eighth place in the standings, but due to the tightly packed nature of the league, they are just three points away from Chelsea as they prepare for their match at Stamford Bridge this Sunday.
Following a series of drawn matches, the Blues made a comeback by defeating Leicester City 2-1 last week. This victory ultimately resulted in the termination of Steve Cooper's time as manager of the Foxes.
Nicolas Jackson played a crucial role in the match, netting one goal and contributing to Chelsea's winning effort. His header was saved, but Enzo Fernandez was there to follow up and score from the rebound. Out of Jackson's seven Premier League goals this season, five of them have given Chelsea a 1-0 lead. As of this weekend's matches, only Chris Wood, with six opening goals, has scored the first goal in more games than Jackson.
Palmer will likely be the one orchestrating Jackson's performances. This season, no player in the Premier League has generated more opportunities from open play than the England international, with a total of 28. Villa is one of only three teams against which Palmer hasn't scored or provided an assist in the league since he joined the Blues, with the others being Liverpool and Leicester.
Chelsea has managed to earn only 41% of their Premier League points this season from home matches (9 out of 22), which is the lowest percentage among all teams. It's essential for Maresca to help the team find their winning form again at Stamford Bridge, especially if he hopes to at least achieve a spot in the Champions League this year.
Chelsea might also need to strengthen their defense. In every one of their home matches in the Premier League this season, they have allowed at least one goal. The last time they had to wait longer for a clean sheet at home at the beginning of a league season was in 1978-79, when it took them nine matches.
Aston Villa has achieved the highest number of goals scored with headers in the league this season, totaling six, which represents 32% of their overall goals in the Premier League. This includes Ross Barkley’s equalizing goal against Crystal Palace in their most recent match. Currently, this is the greatest proportion of headed goals they’ve had in a single top-flight season since the 2001-2002 campaign, when it was 33% (15 out of 46 goals).
Ollie Watkins has found the back of the net in his last two away matches in the Premier League against Chelsea, and in both instances, his goals have secured victory for his team. Notably, no player visiting Stamford Bridge has ever netted three winning goals in the history of the league.
Chelsea Vs Aston Villa: A Head-to-Head Review
Aston Villa has secured victories in their last two away matches against Chelsea in the Premier League, matching the total number of wins they achieved in their past 21 trips to Stamford Bridge, which included 4 draws and 15 losses.
Their most recent streak of three straight wins in away league matches against the Blues occurred from 1930 to 1933.
Chelsea hasn't won any of their last three Premier League matches against Aston Villa, with one draw and two losses. The last time they had a longer streak without a victory against Villa was from February 2006 to December 2007, during which they went five games without a win.
Chelsea Vs Aston Villa Match Preview
Even though Chelsea's recent performance against Villa hasn't been great, Opta’s supercomputer still considers them the favorites. They have a 52% chance of winning.
Villa has a 25.2% probability of winning, while the chances of the match ending in a draw are 22.8%.
Predicted Lineups: Chelsea Vs Aston Villa
The Opta Power Rankings provide a worldwide system for ranking football teams. They evaluate more than 13,000 club teams and give each one a performance score ranging from zero to 100. In this system, a score of zero represents the lowest-ranked team globally, while a score of 100 indicates the highest-ranked team in the world.
Before the match starts this weekend, here's the Opta Power Ranking for each team.
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