Are Champions League goalfests down to new format or deeper disparities?

If Paris Saint-Germain manages to score first against Red Bull Salzburg on Tuesday, they might find themselves debating whether to play it safe or take risks. The revamped Champions League format was partly created to reduce the chances of Europe’s top teams facing elimination, so their current standing is precarious. They won't make it to the playoff round in February unless they improve from their current 25th place. With three group stage matches left to play, they are two points and three goals away from the qualifying mark.

A narrow 1-0 victory would just barely keep the hopes alive, but it may not be enough in this year's competition. Salzburg is not the formidable team they used to be, presenting a chance for a significant win. Most of PSG's opponents have managed a high-scoring game at least once: this season has seen many lopsided scores, and with more such matches expected this week, one has to wonder why that is.

Bayern Munich’s overwhelming 9-2 victory over Dinamo Zagreb on September 17 marked the kickoff of the newly expanded 36-team tournament. This match certainly set the stage for what was to come. So far, after five rounds of play, the average goal difference between the winning and losing teams stands at 2.03 goals, compared to just 1.39 at the same point last season. This increase is hard to overlook, along with the rise in one-sided matches. The question arises: is the new tournament format playing a role in this, or has the gap between the top clubs and the less competitive teams grown even wider, skewing the balance of competition?

The argument for this position is appealing, especially considering that Slovan Bratislava, arguably the biggest underdogs this year, currently sits in second to last place with zero points and a goal difference of -14. They faced a tough start against Celtic, suffering a heavy 5-1 loss, and things haven’t improved much since then. Young Boys, the team right below them, recently lost 6-1 at home to Atalanta and gave up five goals against Barcelona. Meanwhile, Sparta Prague is competing in this tournament for the first time since the 2005-06 season and conceded a total of 11 goals to Atlético Madrid and Manchester City. It seems that the top clubs from smaller countries are struggling, which may fuel conversations about creating a Super League amidst ongoing demands for a more balanced competition.

However, there are voices in European football that advocate for a more careful approach and suggest that the increased scores are a result—whether intended or not—of the new format's regulations. This viewpoint is compelling: with numerous teams closely grouped, and goal difference likely to play a crucial role in determining key standings, many teams have opted to take advantage of the situation. This can often make a significant difference, acting like an extra point that can mean the difference between progressing and being knocked out early. In the past, the strict head-to-head rule was the method used to break ties in the group stage.

In their previous match, Arsenal took the lead quickly against a strong Sporting team. After the break, Martin Ødegaard encouraged his teammates to push forward, which resulted in another four goals. Similarly, Liverpool didn't hold back after scoring against a solid Bayer Leverkusen squad, going on to secure a 4-0 victory in the final thirty minutes.

On the other side, Red Star Belgrade knew their hopes of staying competitive this season were slim. They faced Stuttgart as the underdogs but managed to take the lead and didn't look back. They achieved an impressive 5-1 victory, proving wrong the idea that only the major teams from Western Europe are the ones imparting lessons on the field, especially since Stuttgart had previously triumphed against Juventus.

With that in mind, 17 out of the 22 instances of teams scoring four goals or more have been from clubs in the “big five” leagues. The leading teams still possess the most offensive strength. The most renowned club competition in the world should feature fewer teams that are easy to beat, and this trend is under close observation by stakeholders as the final stages approach.

Some people believe that by 2027, when the current three-year cycle ends, the new Champions League format will have fulfilled its role and will be replaced by a more streamlined version. However, those involved in its development argue that it's premature to make judgments until all eight league-stage matchdays are completed. They highlight that many factors are in play: PSG isn’t the only big club facing challenges; Real Madrid must secure a victory against the strong Atalanta on Tuesday if they hope to qualify automatically for the knockout rounds. If the final round of 18 games is full of uncertainty, any initial difficulties may be seen as beneficial. Meanwhile, the top clubs might find themselves questioning whether the unpredictable nature of each round gives them the stability they desire.

If everything goes ideally for PSG this week, they could rise up four spots in the rankings. To achieve this, they will likely need a convincing win in Austria, and hopefully, Luis Enrique's team will rise to the occasion when it matters most. With around thirty-six contenders all pushing for goals, it's uncertain how this will impact the competition in the long run.