Who is Calin Georgescu, Romanian right-wing candidate leading the election?

An independent candidate, who was a member of Romania's leading far-right party until just two years ago, has unexpectedly won the first round of the country's presidential election this past Sunday.

Calin Georgescu is set to enter a runoff against the candidate who finished in second place in the election.

So, who exactly is Georgescu, how did he manage to earn support from voters, and what lies ahead for Romania?

Outcome Of The Romanian Election Revealed

Overall, 52.4% of eligible voters in Romania, which amounts to 9.4 million people, participated in the election, as reported by the Central Electoral Bureau.

Once 98 percent of the votes had been tallied, Georgescu surprised analysts by taking the lead with 23 percent of the total, as indicated by the preliminary election results.

In November, the polling company Inscop estimated that he would secure 5.4 percent of the vote. While this would represent a notable share, it fell far short of the actual amount he received.

Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu took second place, receiving around 20 percent of the votes. He is the head of Romania's Social Democratic Party (PSD).

In third position is Elena Lasconi from the center-right Save Romania Union (USR) party, who garnered about 19 percent of the votes. Following her, George Simion from the far-right Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR) ranks fourth with 14 percent of the vote.

Klaus Iohannis, the current president from the center-right National Liberal Party (PNL), has held the position since 2014 and is now serving his second term. At present, the PNL and the PSD are working together in a somewhat strained coalition to lead Romania.

Who Is Calin Georgescu? Find Out Here!

Georgescu, who is 62 years old, is running as an independent candidate with a conservative stance. He focused his campaign mainly on social media, especially using TikTok as his platform.

As stated on his website, he has a PhD in soil science and has been employed by Romania’s Ministry of Environment. In addition to being a university professor, he served as a special rapporteur in the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights for the United Nations from 2010 to 2012, and later held the position of executive director at the Global Sustainable Index Institute from 2015 to 2016.

He used to be a part of the far-right opposition group AUR and was their candidate for Prime Minister until he departed in 2022 due to conflicts with other key members of the coalition regarding his opinions on Russia and NATO.

Although he hasn't outright stated that he backs Russia, he mentioned in an interview that Romania should consider following "Russian wisdom."

During a 2022 interview, Georgescu referred to Russian President Vladimir Putin as one of the rare genuine leaders on the global stage.

In a 2021 interview, he referred to NATO's missile defense system located at the Deveselu military base in Romania as a "diplomatic disgrace." He also expressed doubt about NATO's ability to defend its members in the event of a Russian attack. Romania has been part of NATO since 2004.

Romania has a 650-kilometer (400-mile) boundary with Ukraine. Following Russia's extensive invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Ukraine, which is one of the largest grain exporters globally, has been utilizing Romania's Constanta port on the Black Sea to ship out millions of tons of grain.

There have been reports that Russia has breached Romanian airspace in areas near the Ukrainian border, although there have been no reports of any casualties.

In 2020, Georgescu expressed his support for the Legionary Movement, a fascist group from the 20th century.

How Did Georgescu Secure So Many Votes?

Experts warn not to interpret the verdict as a result of widespread backing for Georgescu.

"According to Claudiu Pandaru, a journalist and co-founder of the Romanian news site Republica, the truth is that Georgescu's votes were actually a form of protest against the existing political establishment," he remarked in an interview with Al Jazeera.

He mentioned that most of Georgescu's voters are not aware of his "pro-Russia" statements, which, according to him, did not strike a chord with the broader population in Romania.

"Georgescu captured the support of those who oppose the establishment," said Philipp Lausberg, a senior policy analyst at the European Policy Centre in Belgium, in an interview with Al Jazeera. "Numerous people are frustrated with the current party landscape, and many feel like they aren't being represented."

Lausberg mentioned that due to Georgescu's more lenient approach towards Russia, "some believe he might be able to broker peace with them; however, it's unrealistic to think that Romania can truly influence the situation."

Lausberg also mentioned that Georgescu secured the support of expatriates, particularly "working migrants in Western Europe." This is because the independent candidate seemed to inspire them with the notion of a Romania that would be appealing enough for them to consider coming back.

Pandaru pointed out that Romanian voters are not in favor of having the current Prime Minister Ciolacu or his coalition allies from the PNL take on the leading position. Ciolacu's popularity has been declining due to corruption accusations against him and plagiarism claims involving a partner in the coalition.

At the same time, Georgescu's fame skyrocketed on TikTok, where he shares videos that highlight the struggles faced by everyday Romanians, including issues like economic challenges and rising prices. He is also featured discussing topics on podcasts, going to church, and practicing judo in his videos. Overall, he has gathered an impressive 3.6 million likes on his content.

Lausberg mentioned that Georgescu leveraged his popularity on TikTok to convey powerful, straightforward, and heartfelt messages, portraying himself as an "ordinary guy who challenges the elite." He compared this approach to that of Donald Trump, the President-elect of the United States, who successfully secured the support of the working class to clinch the election earlier this month.

The Romanian Institute of Statistics reports that inflation has decreased from 13.8 percent in 2022 to just over 5 percent in 2024. Despite this drop, Romania still experiences one of the highest inflation rates in the European Union. In October, the country recorded the highest inflation rate within the EU at 5 percent, as noted by Eurostat, the statistical office of the EU.

Pandaru mentioned that a number of TikTok accounts, which remain anonymous, are promoting Georgescu's content on the platform. It's uncertain if these accounts are operated by actual users or if they are automated bots.

He noted that dissatisfaction among voters regarding the government's management of the economy pushed them to look for a different candidate to remove the current leaders from office.

"Georgescu found themselves in the perfect spot, just a tap away on TikTok."

"When Is The Runoff Election Scheduled?"

The runoff election is set to take place on December 8.

Ciolacu and Lasconi are in a tight competition for the second spot, and Georgescu might go up against one of them in the final round.

Pandaru pointed out that Georgescu is likely to struggle in the run-off election because he hasn't run a conventional presidential campaign. His efforts have mainly been limited to TikTok videos and podcast appearances. "The Romanian public isn't familiar with his true identity," he noted.

He noted that Georgescu's TikTok clips mainly focus on him discussing issues rather than offering solutions, and his specific policy suggestions tend to be unclear.

Lasconi, a former journalist, is anticipated by Pandaru to secure the second position and compete against Georgescu in the upcoming runoff. He advocates for higher defense budget allocations and ongoing support for Ukraine.

Lausberg stated that if Lasconi competes against him in the runoff, "she would be at a disadvantage." He compared the situation to the recent U.S. election, where Trump, a "populist, masculine figure" similar to Georgescu, went head-to-head with Democrat Kamala Harris, who is a woman like Lasconi. He further explained that this is due to the fact that "Romania still holds traditional views on gender roles."

According to Lausberg, if Ciolacu makes it to the second round, his chances of winning against Georgescu improve significantly. Ciolacu is expected to gain support from most of the major political parties, whereas Georgescu seems to rely mainly on backing from AUR. Simion, the head of AUR, announced on Sunday that he plans to endorse Georgescu during the runoff election.

Are Parliamentary Elections Coming In Romania?

Certainly! The parliamentary elections are scheduled for December 1, which coincides with the nation's National Day.

As of October, a survey conducted by Inscop reveals that PSD is at the forefront of the parliamentary elections, capturing 30.2 percent of the vote. Meanwhile, PNL stands in second place with 13.2 percent, and Lasconi's USR closely follows with 12.7 percent.

What Will This Mean For Europe?

There is a noticeable increase in far-right movements across Europe.

For instance, in September, Austria's far-right Freedom Party (FPO) secured victory in the national parliamentary election. Just a few weeks prior, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) triumphed in the state election in Thuringia, becoming the first far-right party to win a state election in Germany since World War II.

Dorit Geva, a professor at the University of Vienna, shared with Al Jazeera that victories for right-wing parties in Europe might strengthen Viktor Orban’s idea for Europe's future. This vision includes reducing Brussels' influence, tightening border security to control migration, and it poses significant challenges for Ukraine.

Orban has served as Hungary's prime minister since 2010 and leads the right-wing populist Fidesz party. He has expressed opposition to unrestricted European assistance for Ukraine and advocates for stricter border controls.