As Assad falls, the power dynamics of this troubled, volatile region will utterly change

Assad

The term "seismic" is often used too much, but it's fitting when discussing the ongoing situations in Syria, a nation located at the crossroads of the Middle East.

Assad - Figure 1
Photo Sky News

The downfall of the Assad regime would mark the most notable occurrence in the turmoil that has arisen since Hamas's attacks in Israel on October 7 of last year.

Latest update on Syria: Reports indicate that President Assad has left the country.

This will mark the conclusion of a harsh era of oppression that began when the Assad family, led by Hafez Assad, took control in the early 1970s. It also signifies the end of a destructive civil war that has been ongoing since 2011.

The Assads held onto power in Syria with alarming ruthlessness. They relied on deadly violence and extreme cruelty, employing tactics like mass killings, torture, chemical attacks, and barrel bombs to sustain their regime for nearly fifty years.

They skillfully capitalized on their nation's strategic location to gain backing from enthusiastic partners.

Iran supported the regime in exchange for assistance in bolstering its influence over the network of militant groups in the Middle East. Syria has served as a strategic location for Iranian forces and a route for delivering weapons to Hezbollah.

President Bashar al-Assad granted Moscow a port on the Mediterranean Sea and a nearby airbase as a trade for Russia's military assistance in his fight against adversaries.

The evident downfall of Mr. Assad and his violent family will completely reshape the power balance in this troubled and unstable area.

Hezbollah has significantly weakened in recent months due to actions taken by Israel, and now it faces the loss of an important ally. Iran’s approach of using proxy groups to intimidate Israel is likely to fail. Additionally, Russia might have to abandon its plans in the region as well.

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What really counts is what happens next. The rebel organization, Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), seems to have developed beyond its origins linked to al Qaeda.

In addition to significantly enhancing its combat skills, it has shown an openness to various religions and an impressive level of self-control.

However, it's still too soon to tell. It's uncertain who is backing the rebels and what their goals are if they succeed.

However, every uprising that followed the Arab Spring has descended into turmoil and violence.

If a similar situation occurs in Syria, the consequences for the Middle East could be severe, considering its crucial role in a region that is already struggling with turmoil and division.

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