As Assad falls, the power dynamics of this troubled, volatile region will utterly change
The term "seismic" is often used too much. However, it truly applies to the ongoing events in Syria, a nation situated at the crossroads of the Middle East's tensions.
The downfall of the Assad regime would be the most impactful development in the turmoil that has ensued since the Hamas attacks in Israel on October 7 of last year.
Syria Update: Reports indicate that President Assad has left the country.
This will mark the conclusion of a painful period of oppression that began when the Assad family, led by Hafez Assad, took control in the early 1970s. It also signifies the termination of the destructive civil war that has been ongoing since 2011.
The Assads held on to power in Syria through ruthless and calculating methods. They employed violence, including mass killings and torture, as well as chemical weapons and barrel bombs, to preserve their control for nearly fifty years.
However, they also skillfully took advantage of their nation's strategic location to gain assistance from supportive allies.
Iran supported the regime in exchange for assistance in maintaining its network of influence in the Middle East. Syria has served as a staging ground for Iranian forces and a route for weapons shipments to Hezbollah.
President Bashar al-Assad granted Russia access to a Mediterranean seaport and a nearby airbase in exchange for its military assistance in the fight against his adversaries.
The likely downfall of Mr. Assad and his violent family would completely alter the balance of power in this unstable and troubled area.
Hezbollah, which has already faced significant losses from Israel in recent months, is losing an important ally. Iran's approach of threatening Israel through its proxy groups is likely to fail. Additionally, Russia might have to reconsider its ambitions in the region as well.
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What's important is what happens next. The rebel group Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) seems to have developed beyond its origins influenced by al Qaeda.
In addition to greatly enhancing its combat skills, it has shown an acceptance of various religions and impressive self-control.
It's still the beginning of the situation. We don't yet know who is backing the rebels or what their plans are if they succeed.
However, every uprising following the Arab Spring has descended into turmoil and violent chaos.
If a similar situation occurs in Syria, the consequences for the Middle East could be severe, considering its crucial role in a region already plagued by turmoil and division.
