As 18% of Brits want Trump to win - how much of an impact will US election winner have on UK?
There's a common saying that goes, "When the US catches a cold, the entire world sneezes." This means that the results of the presidential election in the United States won't only have an impact on Americans; they will also influence people globally.
The British public clearly favors Kamala Harris as their preferred candidate.
A recent YouGov poll indicates that 64% of adults in the UK support the current vice president, whereas only 18% would like to see Donald Trump back in office.
Recent news as the U.S. goes to the polls
The survey also indicates that 76% of British voters believe the outcome of the US election is important to varying degrees, while only 17% feel it has little to no significance.
Let's thoroughly explore what a presidency under Trump or Harris would truly signify for the UK.
If you think back, you'll recall that in 2017, then Prime Minister Theresa May traveled to Washington, D.C., to persuade the newly elected President Donald Trump to openly express his backing for NATO and to caution him about his close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Although he ultimately decided against it, since leaving office in January 2021, former members of his senior staff have shared insights about how close he was to pulling the US out of the alliance on several occasions.
It's improbable that the US would fully pull out of NATO if Trump wins a second term. However, it's reasonable to anticipate that he will insist on significant increases in defense spending from member countries relative to their GDP. This has been one of his major criticisms. He may threaten to withdraw the US security support if these nations don't comply, which could undermines the fundamental purpose of the alliance.
The UK surpasses NATO’s goal of allocating 2% of its GDP to defense and intends to increase that to 2.5%. However, the new government has not announced a specific timeline for reaching this target, which means it’s unlikely to encounter any criticism from a possible President Trump on this issue.
However, it's clear that any decline in the strength of the NATO alliance, along with a perceived reluctance from the US president to support allies, would encourage Russia's president. This comes at a time when the head of the UK's domestic intelligence service is cautioning about a rising threat from "Putin's associates."
Trump asserts that he has the ability to bring an end to the conflict in Ukraine.
Throughout his presidency, Trump's connection with Vladimir Putin was a constant topic in the news, with allegations suggesting that his campaign had worked together with Russia to secure his election victory.
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However, he mentioned just last month that he maintains a "very positive relationship" with Putin and asserts that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine almost right away.
However, he has not clearly explained how he plans to accomplish that or what the specific conditions would be. He has also consistently avoided answering whether he believes Ukraine should give up any land to Russia, which would contradict the stance taken by the UK government and other major allies.
If Mr. Trump negotiates an agreement with Russia that Ukraine finds unacceptable, or if he hinders Ukraine's chances of joining NATO, it could create a serious rift between Europe and the United States.
Is Harmony Achievable in the Middle East?
Donald Trump has expressed his complete support for Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu, who certainly hopes to have the former president return to power due to their stronger ties, especially after a rather unstable relationship with Joe Biden.
The ex-president is said to support Israel's efforts against terrorism and considers Iran to be a significant threat, much like Mr. Netanyahu. It's worth noting that during his first term, Mr. Trump made the decision to remove the United States from the nuclear agreement with Iran, a move that was eagerly anticipated by the Israeli prime minister.
However, Mr. Trump has a history of discussing the importance of stopping violence in general terms, and he is widely recognized for his enthusiasm for making deals.
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During his initial term in office, he oversaw the signing of the Abraham Accords, which established formal relations between Israel and four Arab nations for the first time. This could set the stage for him to pursue efforts aimed at achieving peace in the Middle East.
The Palestinian leaders have made it evident that they do not trust Mr. Trump and are unlikely to seek any interactions with him.
However, if a US president who has a close relationship with Benjamin Netanyahu calls for a ceasefire, it would carry considerable weight. Such a halt in fighting would likely relieve some of the political pressure on Sir Keir Starmer at home. Yet, Trump's stance on this matter may vary based on his current mood.
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Trump vs. China: The Sequel?
One of the highly praised benefits of Brexit was the prospect of securing a trade agreement with the US. However, this deal has yet to come to fruition, and it doesn’t seem to be a top priority for a potential second term for Trump, even though a former member of his team has claimed otherwise.
To start with, Mr. Trump has stated before that the Brexit agreement reached by the "wonderful" former Prime Minister Boris Johnson made it impossible to establish a possible trade deal.
Even if he were interested, the new UK government, similar to those before it, is unlikely to agree with Mr. Trump's wish to let US companies enter the UK healthcare market or to lower animal welfare and quality standards for importing American meat (think back to the issue of 'chlorinated chicken').
A more probable outcome is that Mr. Trump will act on his commitment to implement tariffs ranging from 10% to 20% on all goods brought into the US, aiming to motivate consumers to choose American-made products.
The former president is expected to maintain his previous conflicts with China, vowing to initiate a new trade war. He plans to impose a heavy 60% tariff on imports, which would significantly raise the prices of goods. This could result in inflation in the US and have ripple effects on the global economy.
Implementing a broad tariff of 10% to 20% on imports would significantly damage the UK economy, as the United States is the largest market for British exports, with a total worth of £188.2 billion in the year leading up to October.
Philip Reeker, the former U.S. ambassador to the UK, shared with Sky's Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips that we should " anticipate" the ex-president to stick to this policy.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves suggested that the UK is unlikely to respond with measures of its own, stating, "We are committed to collaborating with whoever is elected president and promoting the importance of free and open trade that we support."
Similar to Theresa May, it seems that Ms. Reeves will probably not get a favorable response from the former president.
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Can King Charles help improve relationships?
Under Mr. Trump, US-UK relations could be negatively impacted by earlier remarks made by key members of Sir Keir Starmer's inner circle regarding him.
In 2018, David Lammy, who is currently the UK's top diplomat, referred to the former president as a "woman-hating sociopath who sympathizes with neo-Nazis" and claimed he poses a serious risk to global stability. Meanwhile, in September of that year, immigration minister Angela Eagle criticized Trump for contributing to a climate of "anger" towards immigrants through his use of social media.
Nigel Farage's close ties with Mr. Trump might lead to complications as the leader of Reform UK may seek to exert his influence and create challenges for his political rivals in the government.
One factor that won't damage US-UK relations if Trump serves a second term is his strong personal connection to the UK. His mother was born in Scotland, and he is set to open a new golf course there next year, which will be named in her honor.
Melania Trump has stated that she and her husband have been in communication with King Charles. They supposedly first met him when he was still the Prince of Wales in 2005. Buckingham Palace did not provide any comments on this. Additionally, Mr. Trump has expressed admiration for his interactions with the late Queen Elizabeth II.
The ex-president had a two-hour dinner with Sir Keir Starmer in New York in September. The Prime Minister described the meeting as "positive," and the Republican candidate has spoken highly of Sir Keir Starmer.
However, Mr. Trump's campaign has claimed that the Labour Party is attempting to meddle in the US elections by dispatching party members to support Kamala Harris. Although there is no proof that US election laws have been violated, this issue could pose a challenge for the early stages of that relationship.
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Although Kamala Harris emphasizes that she won't simply continue Joe Biden's policies, one aspect remains unchanged: her strong endorsement of the NATO alliance and her commitment to fostering positive relationships with European partners, including the UK.
During Mr. Trump's first term as president, she openly expressed her support for collaborating with allies, especially as he decided to pull the U.S. out of global agreements such as the Paris Climate Accords and the nuclear deal with Iran.
Her strong dedication to the global community persisted throughout her time as vice president. She participated in various summits and conferences worldwide, including a visit to the UK where she attended Rishi Sunak's AI Summit at Downing Street.
If Harris were to become president, she would maintain support for Ukraine as it faces Russia's invasion. This stance sets her apart from Trump, and she has emphasized this difference.
She has clearly said that she won’t meet with Vladimir Putin for any peace negotiations without backing from Ukraine. This aligns with the stance of the UK and its allies. Additionally, she has been very critical of Trump’s seemingly welcoming attitude toward the Russian leader.
Support for Ukraine's defense will keep going, which suggests that the UK and its allies probably won't have to take on a larger share of the expenses, especially since their budgets are already under significant pressure.
Joe Biden has a strained relationship with Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu, someone he has been acquainted with for many years, and it’s doubtful that Kamala Harris would approach things any differently.
Since taking on the role of the Democratic presidential candidate, the vice president has been treading carefully. She is trying to balance backing Israel's right to defend itself—an official stance of the U.S. government and a view shared by many independent voters she hopes to win over—with criticizing Israel's actions in Gaza. This criticism, however, is seen by some within the party's left wing as insufficiently robust.
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Ms. Harris shares a viewpoint with the Israelis by stating that she sees Iran as the most significant threat to the United States, a perspective that many in Washington might have attributed to China instead.
Would a Harris administration significantly change the dynamics that Israeli leaders have navigated over the past year? Probably not. However, they wouldn't have the same level of freedom to operate as they would with a Trump administration.
She has been much more assertive in seeking a ceasefire agreement compared to Mr. Biden, which means that Sir Keir Starmer and David Lammy will probably find an ally in Ms. Harris regarding this matter.
No tariffs, yet no trade agreement.
During her unusually brief presidential campaign, Kamala Harris has kept her comments about China to a minimum. However, it’s clear that she doesn’t favor a trade war, in contrast to her Republican opponent. This stance could help maintain a certain level of stability in the global economy.
Aside from that, the only hint we have about her stance on China comes from her response to a question posed by CBS News last month. When asked whether she would follow Joe Biden's lead and deploy U.S. troops to protect Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, she declined to engage in "hypotheticals."
EXPLORE FURTHER: The impact of tariffs on the US, UK, EU, China, and globally What a Trump administration might imply for international conflicts and security in Europe A straightforward overview of the US electoral process
Regarding trade, the Biden administration has taken a notably protectionist stance, avoiding large international trade agreements and instead concentrating on domestic issues. This approach has not been beneficial for the previous Conservative government, which was eager to secure a trade deal.
Ms. Harris has shown no signs of shifting from that position and has consistently concentrated on issues within the country during her campaign.
In that regard, it's difficult to determine the likelihood of a trade agreement with the US if Harris takes over. However, if she follows the same approach as Mr. Biden, there’s not much reason to feel hopeful about it.
The Labor Party and the Democrats
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The Labour Party and the Democrats are closely related organizations, sharing similar ideologies and frequently supporting one another during election campaigns.
A few Labour representatives recently visited the US for casual discussions about their impressive win in July. However, Labour has emphasized that there is no official agreement in place.
A rather concerning indication is that although Donald Trump was willing to meet with Sir Keir Starmer during his visit to the US in September, Kamala Harris appeared unable to accommodate him in her agenda.
However, there’s no indication that this is a purposeful slight, and it’s likely that the relationship between the Harris and Starmer governments would be friendly and cooperative, which could be beneficial for the UK.
