Syrian rebels sweep into Aleppo after lightning assault

Rebel groups have surged into Aleppo, Syria's second-largest city, launching a rapid attack that represents the most significant challenge to Bashar al-Assad's government in years.

On Saturday, the Syrian military announced that while the rebels managed to capture large parts of Aleppo city, they were unsuccessful in establishing secure positions due to ongoing intense and focused attacks from our armed forces.

It mentioned that it was getting ready to launch a counteroffensive, and its troops had been involved in intense fighting over a 100km stretch in the past few days.

On Saturday, the insurgents, spearheaded by the Islamist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, announced that they had made significant progress from their base in Idlib province, located in northwestern Syria. They reported gaining control over numerous towns and a military airbase belonging to the government.

Pictures shared on social media platforms associated with the opposition displayed rebel fighters, who began their attack on Wednesday, standing in front of the Aleppo citadel, located in the center of the city.

The attack occurs as Assad contends with increasing challenges both at home and from abroad in a nation ravaged by a civil war that began following a popular uprising in 2011. He managed to suppress the initial revolt with military support from Russia, Iran, and groups backed by Iran, such as Hizbollah, the militant organization from Lebanon.

In recent years, the intensity of conflict in Syria's civil war has significantly decreased. The remaining armed groups have been largely confined to the northern and northwestern regions, near the border with Turkey.

In the last year, Israel has increased its airstrikes targeting Iranian-connected sites in Syria while also conducting an operation against Hizbollah in Lebanon. This action has diminished the influence of the groups that have been vital in backing the Assad regime. Recently, the Israeli military announced that it targeted "military infrastructure" associated with Hizbollah near the border with Lebanon.

HTS’s capability to operate effectively in Aleppo presents a significant setback for Assad, highlighting the vulnerabilities of his regime.

Malik al-Abdeh, a Syrian expert, remarked, “This poses a significant challenge for Assad. Israel's strikes on Iran and Hezbollah have opened the door for this situation to arise. The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran has clearly weakened Iran's ability to operate and engage in combat in Syria.”

He mentioned that HTS had been preparing for the attack for several months and was working together with Turkish-supported groups, referred to as the Syrian National Army. However, those groups had not yet fully committed their forces.

"Those living under the regime have lost all motivation and hope, and they are open to any opposition against the Syrian government,” Abdeh stated. “Moreover, the Syrian army is no longer willing to sacrifice their lives for the regime."

The Syrian military reported that many of its soldiers have lost their lives in the conflict. They noted that the intensity of the rebel assault compelled them to initiate a short-term "redeployment operation." This operation aimed to strengthen their defenses and get ready for a counterattack.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a monitoring organization based in the UK, reported that HTS rapidly gained control of more than half of Aleppo within just a few hours, facing no opposition from the government forces.

According to the UN and the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the ongoing conflict has forced many civilians to leave their homes in Aleppo and the nearby areas.

Aleppo experienced some of the most intense battles during the civil war. With constant Russian airstrikes aiding their efforts, forces were able to surround the city and force out the rebels who were based in the eastern districts. This shift significantly benefited Assad in the conflict.

Emile Hokayem from the International Institute for Strategic Studies commented that the Assad government continues to possess a strong military presence, aerial capabilities, and support from outside sources.

"Hokayem stated that the fall of Aleppo is a significant blow that will undermine the trust of those who support the regime."

Assad seemed to believe he was reintegrating into global politics due to other countries' interest in restoring ties with him. However, the Syrian people reminded everyone just how unstable his position is and how much his legitimacy has weakened.

HTS, headed by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, is a branch of the al-Qaeda-linked group Jabhat al-Nusra that formed during the Syrian civil war. However, it has attempted to present itself as a more moderate Sunni Islamist organization.

The US State Department has designated it as a terrorist organization, and it has taken control of one of the remaining strongholds of the armed opposition in the northwestern area of Idlib, Syria. HTS stands out as the strongest military force among the surviving rebel groups.

Turkey, which has supported Syrian rebels since the beginning of the civil war in Syria, shares a border with the country. It has deployed troops in northern Syria and manages significant areas of land while also providing support to various rebel groups.

Ankara has a connection with HTS, and while its influence over the militants and Idlib may be limited, it has taken on the role of a guardian for the area.

Dareen Khalifa, a consultant at Crisis Group, stated that Ankara did not support the initial offensive by HTS.

She mentioned that the successes the group has achieved on the battlefield have opened up new possibilities for Turkey to deploy its allied forces into parts of Aleppo province where the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK)—a Kurdish separatist organization that has been in conflict with the Turkish government for many years—and Iranian forces are active.

"It clearly aligns with Turkey's interests. The region has been a significant security concern for them," she stated.

"The PKK has found a secure stronghold in a region that seems to be safeguarded by both Iran and Russia. This location is very near areas controlled by Turkey, making it easily accessible for them."

Further contributions by Neri Zilber from Tel Aviv.